Russia

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Russia's Current Geopolitics:

In history, Russia has always won wars with people. It finds itself at war with Ukraine now, one of the former Soviet Union states. Will it continue to throw people at the problem until it goes away? If it does, how will its already damaged population demographics lead it to geopolitical uncertainty?

The Russia and Ukraine war is happening from a Russian point of view because of NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was created post-World War Two, with the exact goal of limiting the rise of the Soviet Union to challenge the United States. Typical rising power versus ruling power dynamics. Try to suffocate or patiently wait out the rising power until the characteristics of their country no longer classify it as a rising power. This is exactly what the United States-led order did during the Cold War. The US, Russia, and China have used proxy wars up until 2022 to fight geopolitical battles in regions such as Afghanistan and Syria. In 2022, that has changed. We have seen a major geopolitical player embroiled in a war in mainland Europe again.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region was in disarray. It was split into 15 states. Although Russia no longer controlled the territory of these other states, they were still a regional geopolitical leader, and it heavily influenced the area. However, this influence dropped in some areas and allowed NATO to advance. The Baltics were all admitted to NATO, and whisperings about Ukraine wanting to join caused Russian aggression. The countries share nearly a 2000km land border, so NATO troops (and US troops) existing along this border would create massive levels of tension.

The Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk wanted breakaway status from Ukraine. Russian-supported separatists engaged in the War in Donbas in 2014. In the end, this led to the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula. Referendums were held in 2014, and after the invasion in 2022. The validity of both has not been accepted by any other world government. During the Russia-Ukraine war, at the time of writing, both regions have been annexed by Russian forces, officially occurring on September 30th, 2022.

This is a key aspect of Russian geopolitics. Most of their ports become inaccessible in the winter as they freeze. Russia needs access to the Black Sea to have more platforms from which to launch its energy trade, or to defend itself with a navy.

Putin has openly stated that the fall of the Soviet Union was one of the worst events in recent Russian history. From a Russian geopolitical point of view, it is difficult to argue this point. They lost influence in the former Soviet region and lost that influence on an organisation (NATO) that was built purely to oppose Russia. This is why Russia cannot join NATO, or the two ever work together. The entire reason for the creation of NATO was to limit Russian geopolitical power. So Russia had to invade Ukraine from their point of view because if Ukraine was admitted to NATO, then they wouldn’t have the choice without invoking NATO’s article 5. This would lead to every NATO member attacking Russia. Or countries in NATO leaving to not be a part of the article 5 attack. It’s a deterrent for attacking any NATO member state, but many NATO member states wouldn’t fight for others. An example is Turkey, which is a member of NATO, but also friendly with Russia. Is Turkey trying to play both geopolitical sides? Regardless, it is a question we have to consider, should article 5 ever come to be activated?

Russia’s key geopolitical goal is always to maximise distance from its capital to its borders. The climate in Russia in winter is cold. Very cold. So if the Russians have a distance to their capital and can see out any conflict during summer, they have the upper hand in the winter. Conditions make it difficult for attacking army logistics to flow without issues, such as food, water, weaponry, and oil for vehicles. In World War Two, the Russians didn’t fall to the Nazis even as they were outside the gates of Moscow. This is a clear example that Russia needs distance from its capital to succeed as a geopolitical power.

Without distance, they have no defence. That’s why they don’t want Finland, Sweden, or Ukraine to join NATO. The distance to Moscow will be less, and more force will be stationed directly on the border. This might not cause direct war, but it puts Russia in a powerless position that knows it can’t win. There’s a quote about poking an angry bear. What about an angry bear with nukes?

One other aspect to consider in the Russia-NATO story is Moldova. Moldova isn’t a NATO member and depending on the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Moldova would be the last roadblock between Russia and NATO being at each other’s borders in an even greater capacity. This is why the west is providing Ukraine with so much weaponry, equipment, and military funding. They want to avoid this happening. If Russia did continue to try to advance towards NATO territory, they would come across a rather angry, and strengthening Poland. In history, Poland has been stuck between a rock and a hard place with Germany and Russia at either side. But now, Poland is in a position to show their own strength and influence. This time they will tell a different geopolitical story. They have strong military alliances with South Korea and the United States to receive military equipment for years to come. Based on how Russia started the war in Ukraine, if Poland and Russia found themselves at odds, Poland would be a tough challenge. That is without considering the rest of NATO.

If we go above the systems of the world, borders are a human-created ideology. And look at all the tensions and wars it causes. States want to break away from powers who rule over them. Countries don’t want to be influenced by others around them. Other countries want to consolidate the power they already have. Our differences separate us and contribute to the entire reason that geopolitics even exists. Russia is, and always has been a key geopolitical player. And their differences from other capitalist, western systems are one of the key drivers of tensions.

In retaliation for the Russian invasion, the west threw sanctions at Russia. The west aimed to sanction Russia’s energy industry by reducing and then completely banning the import of Russian energy goods. This has led to the sped-up process of Russia pivoting to the East and Asia. Specifically, the Chinese-run system. And it’s a match made in heaven. The Chinese are the biggest world consumer. In historical geopolitics, China’s struggles have been food and energy for its entire population. With the Russian wheat belt and large energy industry, this is something Russia can supply China. The partnership benefits both Russia and China. Russia is also trading more with India which will soon have the world’s largest population. The demand for Russian energy is still very much there in the east. The role of the leader of the energy industry in a country is to supply enough energy for the nation to function normally. Russian energy is cheap, and Asia is taking advantage of this.

The most important event of the sanctions put on Russia was the US confiscating Russia’s foreign exchange reserves held in dollars. This affected the entire geopolitical world. Upset the US and essentially have your money stolen. The implied probability of a Russian debt default within 5 years is 100%. The world system runs on dollars so not having access to the dollar market can be crippling for a nation.

This contributed to many countries realising the dollar has too much power. And so other countries will pivot away from holding dollars. Watch the amount of foreign-held dollars drop over the coming years. The US will have less global influence. Russia will feel pain due to the dollar confiscation. But US influence over Russia has dropped sharply.

Russia’s pivot to China made sense. Both are members of BRICS, as well as India. BRICS offers an alternative to the US-based world order, and many countries have shown an interest in wanting to be a part of this new system. As BRICS and NATO both grow in size, does this add to a greater risk of escalation? As both groups grow, the chance of one country doing something reckless grows. And bigger alliances contribute to bigger wars. Look at both World Wars. There are now other ways that wars can be fought. Russia can be a part of them all. Space wars, infrastructure wars, and cyber wars. Russia is part of the new space race. The race to put space bases on the moon, or to get to Mars. They are also victims of the Nord Stream pipeline attacks earlier in 2022 but have been accused of their own attacks. Finally, Russia is well known for its cyber attacks. Some members of Russia’s Wagner group even admitted to tampering with the previous US elections, especially in 2016 and 2020.

All this has been about Russia and its geopolitical struggles with external countries. What about Russia internally? Will it find a way to end itself? Its demographics are ageing, and the young population is being used in war. Population decline is already happening in Russia, as well as in other countries around the world. Does population decline put less strain on global supply chains and commodities demand, which Russia might struggle to be a large part of now? If Russia can somehow navigate their ageing, declining population, it will have political tension to contest. Russian citizens are fleeing Russia to avoid taking part in the Ukraine war or to find a better life for themselves and their families. From an outside view, many citizens would rather leave than stay, and while the war continues, this trend will continue.

One potential opportunity for Russia will come in this decade of geopolitical tension. The long-term debt cycle is reaching the end game, and the field of geopolitics is being drawn up. The last cycle began at the end of World War Two. As cycles reach an end and global systems are challenged, there is a grab for power and influence. Those who lost power in the past wish to regain it. Those who have power now wish to maintain it. The current geopolitical tension comes coupled with grabs for power, and Russia finds itself in the centre of the geopolitical game, playing for influence and power. The question is if they will find it before ruining themselves.

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Data on Russia