Geopolitics Review - 7th April 2025
The Donald Diaries: Ukraine’s Scenarios For The Future
Contents
Introduction
Where Do We Go From Here?
Scenario Analysis: Short Term (In The Next Year)
Scenario Analysis: Medium Term (1-3 Years)
Scenario Analysis: Long Term (3 Years+)
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
One of Europe’s perceived biggest crises in recent years has been the war in Ukraine. When Trump entered office, and implied he would decrease support for Ukraine, it became a true crisis for Europe. Faced with the reality that their security would be their problem, and with the potential futures of Ukraine also up in the air, the Europeans truly recognised the weak position they are in. They are in a weak position and likely can’t handle their own security, never mind that of Ukraine.
With the Europeans pushed onto the sidelines of talks, the United States and Russia are attempting to determine the future of the Ukrainians. Currently, Russia is being given huge benefits through agreements with the United States, even without a full ceasefire being agreed. At the same time, Ukraine and Zelenskyy receive frequent attacks from Trump and his administration. This ceasefire attempt is heavily lopsided, but are we reaching the point where progress will falter or advance? Russia has heavily benefitted up to this point, and I question if they are incentivised to end this conflict at all. Let’s explore the potential directions the conflict in Ukraine could head in from here.
Introduction
Today, I’ll explore the wider geopolitical consequences of the redrawing of geopolitical relations between the United States and Russia and how this is affecting the conflict in Ukraine. I’ll also explore what Russia wants deep down and why they likely won’t agree to a ceasefire. In light of this, what other scenarios could we see unfold? Let’s explore.
Where Do We Go From Here: Scenario Analysis
Last Monday, I discussed many of the issues that were previously non-negotiables between Russia and Ukraine, and that in the Trump negotiations, we are seeing the gaps between the two sides are beginning to narrow. This is through Trump’s pressure on Ukraine and concessions to Russia, which has seen territorial compromises expected of the Ukrainians. Hence the Ukrainian’s previous demands of complete Russian withdrawal and a return to Ukraine’s 1991 borders have been cast aside. As we saw from the Ukrainian panic when Trump cut off aid and intelligence during the spat between the two, the Ukrainians need the United States. To a certain extent, this means Zelenskyy has to say yes to Trump’s conditions unless they will hurt too much. For greater details on this, the post is linked below.
But as we shift focus from the present day to the potential future, some issues still remain. Firstly, why would Russia negotiate when they have momentum? We saw this issue arise in this past week as Trump criticised Putin for a lack of progress in ceasefire talks. The Russian economy could lead to an agreement being made if it is under pressure and sanctions relief is promised, but there are no guarantees of this occurring as on the surface, Russia’s war economy continues ticking on. Secondly, we have to navigate the security of Ukraine. This guarantee will have to take a form that doesn’t see physical troops in Ukraine, regardless of whether they were NATO troops or not, because this would lead to increased tension between Russia and Europe, which promises to remain elevated regardless of how a potential deal pans out in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As for where these issues take us in the future, the potential scenarios are plentiful.
Short-Term (The Next Year)
Peace:
A Forced Peace Settlement On Ukraine Ends The War. Ukraine Is Split Since Territorial Concessions Are Expected of Ukraine By Any Deal Involving Trump - This would involve Putin agreeing to a ceasefire that he doesn’t want to agree to. But it would weaken Ukraine due to U.S. support being withdrawn. If Putin can envisage a reason to attack Ukraine again in the future when it’s weakened even more and he has benefitted from reduced sanctions and had the time to address some of the economic issues the Russians face, he could take such a deal. A deal here between Trump and Putin also paints a picture that the Russians were justified to attack a neighbouring state since Trump will appease Russia, giving Putin what he wants. The fact Trump seemingly takes Putin at face value, when countless other world leaders have been given example after example to not trust him, is questionable at best, but it’s the reality in which we are living. Macron learned this lesson after the Minsk Agreements, and he is now one of the European leaders in the strongest pursuit against Russian aggression along with Starmer. Still, Trump seems set on achieving a win here, and that could come via an agreement with Russia that completely cuts out Ukraine. In a branch of this scenario, Ukraine could continue to fight even if a U.S.-Russian deal attempts to force peace upon it, which I’ll discuss in a scenario below. Probability = Medium
A Peace Settlement With Ukraine Involvement Ends The War. Ukraine Is Split Since Territorial Concessions Are Expected of Ukraine By Any Deal Involving Trump - This would also involve Putin agreeing to a ceasefire but could involve a U.S. economic security deal with Ukraine that is being pitched as a part of the minerals deal. My first issue is whether Putin would ever accept this. With NATO’s advancement towards Russia one of his biggest reasons for the war, would he want U.S. and European businesses and citizens in Ukraine even if only as part of an economic connection? I say no. Even if such a ceasefire was agreed with Putin, the terms of the minerals deal are so limiting for Ukraine that it would also be weakened in this case even if peace arose. Still, I can’t see Putin accepting a U.S. or European presence in Ukraine at all. Probability = Low
War:
Ukraine Refuses The Minerals Deal and Continues To Fight With European Support. The United States Removes Itself From The Picture as Ukraine Falters - Putin likely doesn’t want to anger Trump, but he will be looking for a way out of the deal he never wanted. Given that Trump has been reiterating Russian talking points in recent months and refused to blame Russia for the invasion in the UN vote, this shouldn’t be too difficult to achieve. Trump has been directing much of his anger at Ukraine and Zelenskyy already, and if Zelenskyy doesn’t accept the lopsided minerals deal, this would likely be where Putin is hoping this entire ceasefire agreement goes. That way, Trump pulls out because he wants no involvement in Ukraine, and the future of Ukraine is left on its own, with Russia having more momentum as U.S. support fades. Then we’d truly see how much support Europe can provide for Ukraine in a moment of sheer desperation for the continent. Note that Russian momentum would likely increase without U.S. support, but a question of how much momentum Russia gains makes it difficult to determine any timeline accurately. Probability = Medium
Russia Refuses A Ceasefire, Leading To U.S. Support Remaining For Ukraine and Heavy Sanctions on Russia. Over Time, The United States Removes Itself From The Picture, and A Stalemate Remains - Russia resumed attacks on energy infrastructure three hours after an agreement to stop was made. Putin expects all Western weapons and intelligence to stop being sent to Ukraine, and a stoppage of Ukrainian military recruitment, all in return for a 30-day ceasefire. Putin is not interested in a ceasefire unless he gets everything he wants, or something equally as beneficial, but with how strict Russia has been in its support of the Istanbul Communique since 2022, alternative arrangements are unlikely. For this scenario where Russia rejects a deal from the U.S. and the one above where Ukraine rejects a deal from the U.S., it will likely depend on which would arise first. Marco Rubio said over the weekend that Putin has “weeks not months” to make progress on a ceasefire. This scenario could begin to pan out as soon as next week. Trump’s aim is to pull out of Ukraine, but it’s where he directs his anger if a ceasefire doesn’t occur that is important. Probability = High
Other Geopolitical Actors Pursue A Ceasefire, Namely China or Turkey - If the war continues, Trump wants out of Ukraine. Would the Chinese aim to pursue a ceasefire and to be seen as a promoter of global peace? Or perhaps Turkey could pursue peace having had a key role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative earlier in the war. Currently, China is embroiled in a U.S. trade war and enjoys a “friendship without limits” with the Russians, and Turkey is busy in Syria. Over the longer term, this could become a possibility, but today, I’d say this is a low likelihood. Probability = Low
Medium Term (1-3 Years)
The War Ends In A Ukrainian Loss. A New Hybrid War Between Russia and Europe Takes Over - This war could suddenly turn tides without U.S. support, especially with Zelenskyy panicking and returning to Trump to apologise for the White House spat. It could be that Zelenskyy knows the reality on the ground needs U.S. support, but Trump doesn’t want to be involved in Ukraine. Ukraine would continue to fight and the Europeans would support as much as possible, entering into a more active hybrid war against Russia, but it wouldn’t be enough. In the next 3 years, this scenario is dependent on the successes of Ukraine without U.S. involvement. This is complicated and will be a function of Ukrainian psychology, troop numbers, and European levels of support. These are difficult to determine but have to be considered, because it could be a reality for Europe. Probability = Medium
The War Ends In A Ukrainian Loss. Russia and U.S. Grow Even More Aligned In A New Power-Based World Order, Which Includes A Russia-US Minerals Deal - This war is hurting Russia too. Trump seemingly interprets Russia as an unbeatable giant, and although they have advantages in momentum, they have shown weakness on the battlefield for long periods, especially in the Kursk offensive and the first Ukrainian counteroffensive. The fact that Trump wants a deal for peace in Ukraine is because he doesn’t want to be involved there. But if he doesn’t get his win by orchestrating a peace deal, it all depends on where he aims his anger. Could Putin and Russia get off free from Trump’s anger and a potential deal be signed to spite Ukraine? Trump has been antagonistic towards the rest of the world, but I’d say this is outright crazy to pursue such a strategy in broad daylight with a nation that brought war back to Europe and has clear territorial aspirations outside their own borders. A low likelihood here, but not zero. Probability = Low
The War Continues In A Stalemate in Ukraine As An EU-Russia Proxy War - At the current pace, it would take Russia close to 80 years to control the entirety of Ukraine. Without U.S. support, this would decrease due to a loss of financial aid, intelligence capabilities, and logistical support. But it would still be a slow, grinding war, with Europe providing what support it can. With Putin set in his ways and not in pursuit of a ceasefire, and with Trump wanting out, this has to be considered a high-probability scenario. Probability = High
Note: I haven’t included a scenario where Ukraine turns the tide and removes Russia completely from its territory. I would love for this to be a viable scenario, but unfortunately the momentum is more with Russia. If the US leaves the field of play in supporting Ukraine, the situation cannot possibly get better, as Europe cannot fully step into the shoes of the United States, especially in intelligence and logistics support. Also, Ukraine is never going to take all of Russia, which is likely what they would have to do to stop aggression from Russia without a ceasefire deal, and without an internal Russian collapse occurring.
Long Term (3 Years +)
A Revived Intermarium - One of Russia’s main geopolitical aims is the security of its borders, specifically of Moscow. If Ukraine falls, would Russia next look to Transnistria in Moldova, or perhaps Romania, Poland, and the Baltics to restore its former empire under the Soviet Union? A bridge from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea formed by allied nations against Russian aggression has gained traction during the war in Ukraine. If the Ukraine War ended, an Intermarium alliance could gain even more traction as they align on one joint goal of deterring Russian aggression. This would especially occur if the role of NATO is questioned in coming years, especially by Trump’s disdain for the group. Probability = Medium
An Internal Russian Crisis - Russian demographics are in tatters with a clear population decline evident even by the Russian data, and the war will not have helped. Could we one day see a demographic collapse in Russia? Probability = High (Undetermined Timeframe)
Europe Rearms, and Distances From the United States - We’re already hearing about this today. With Trump taking a tough stance against the EU and removing the security umbrella they previously provided Europe, the Europeans have to be able to support themselves. This trend will continue to unfold over the next few years, albeit very slowly. But we have to consider if Europe is going to buy weapons, where will it buy from? Trump hopes the United States. This would support his entire tariff strategy to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with trading partners, all while ensuring Europe pays its way for its own security. What such a rearm process cannot involve is European troops physically in Ukraine if the war remains active. This would heavily weaken Europe and would lead to a hot war between Europe and Russia. How this looks is uncertain, but it would weaken the Europeans when they’re already in a weak state. Probability = Medium
These scenarios aren’t exclusive. Many of them could occur at the same time.
In determining which are most likely, I believe we see one of the following occur:
We see a settlement decided by Russia and the United States forced on Ukraine that heavily benefits Russia, with Ukraine accepting a US minerals deal or not. Europe is already rearming and distancing itself from the United States, and the U.S. and Russia are growing closer as a part of the new power-based world order. This would involve a split Ukraine, the security of which would be determined by Ukraine and Europe.
Alternatively, Russia refuses a deal, and we’re back to step one, except Trump launches heavy sanctions and tariffs on Russia. However, he then still loses interest in Ukraine, moving on to alternative plans, and Ukraine is once again left fending for itself with the support Europe can afford to provide. Over time, momentum would grow for the Russians.
An internal Russian crisis, whether demographic or political, could see Russia heavily weakened and interfere with either of these scenarios. But there is no certain timeline for such an occurrence. Any nation that is against Russia geopolitically and is hoping for such a collapse is playing a long fools game, especially while Ukraine bleeds today and would continue to in waiting for such an unlikely scenario to unfold.
So to summarise, we continue fighting, but Ukraine has less support and is weakened as the Americans pull out. Or a deal is agreed, whether with Ukraine or Russia or both, and Ukraine is still split territorially and is also weakened as the Americans either exploit them through a minerals deal or weaken them through their pulling out of active support. Ukraine shouldn’t be forced into this position of weakness in a war they didn’t ask for, but this highlights how morality in geopolitics is often a principle cast aside in the place of power and influence. In either scenario, Ukraine is left more alone, not out of personal choice, but because its allies redefined the terms of support.
With this heart-wrenching reality in mind, there are other aspects of this situation that deserve coverage, that being the call for Ukrainian elections, and how to incentivise the Russians to any agreement when they do have a small amount of momentum. I’ll dive into this on Thursday.
Concluding Remarks
In this past week, we’ve seen Ukraine reject Trump’s new minerals deal because Trump keeps adding new conditions such as Ukraine paying all the borrowings from the United States back fully plus interest. On the other side of Trump’s efforts, the U.S. and Russia entered talks on a joint rare earth project. The trend is heading in a negative direction for the Ukrainians, and a positive direction for the Russians. If this continues to unfold in the long term, it is worrying that Ukraine’s straw will get shorter as Russia’s is getting longer.
Some have reported that Ukraine has no options other than to agree to a US deal because they need U.S. support. Ukraine would indeed be weakened without the U.S. backing, but if the US asks for too much, Ukraine will also have to reject it. If the only alternative is for Ukraine to sell its soul to the United States for peace, then Trump has the wrong incentives in mind when pursuing peace here. If Trump truly cared about a ceasefire in Ukraine and not personal gain secured via pressure, he wouldn’t propose such a lopsided deal. With the Russians in the more powerful position, they have to be incentivised to agree to a ceasefire, but this shouldn’t be to the complete detriment of Ukraine and its future. Ukraine needs a chance to stand on its own two feet, and currently, they’re not been granted that opportunity. In this new world, where power trumps morality, will Ukraine’s future be shaped by what’s right or by what those in power deem necessary?
Over the coming weeks, I’ll also discuss how the EU could factor into this complicated situation. If this takes your interest make sure you subscribe and keep an eye out for that post, and an update on other big issues in this conflict that will be released on Thursday.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week:
Bernie Sanders Leads Charge To Block Arms To Israel, Heavily Voted Down Bu Senate
China Ends Drills With Simulated Attacks On Ports and Energy
EU Could Fine Musk and X €1B For Illicit Content and Disinformation
Fighting Breaks Out Between Israeli Troops and Jolani Militants
Gulf States Refuse To Allow U.S. To Use Bases To Attack Iran
Hamas Willing To Release All Hostages At Once For Permanent Truce
Hegseth Circulated Secret Pentagon Memo On Preparing For War With China
Indian Refiners Seek Alternative To Russian Oil After Tariff Threat
Lavrov: Moscow Looking To Expand Defence Cooperation With Vietnam
Microsoft Scales Back AI Datacentre Projects In US, Australia, and the UK
New Groups In The DRC With War Criminal Lubanga Launching Rebel Group
New York Times Secret History of Involvement In Ukraine War Article
Rubio: Reports That Trump Will Pull Out Of NATO Are Hysteria
Russia Halts Large Chunk of Kazakhstan’s Oil Export Capacity
Senate Votes To Block Trump Tariffs On Canada As Four Republicans Cross The Aisle
Senators Prepare 500% Uranium, Oil Tariffs If Russia Doesn’t Negotiate
Top German Politicians Calling For Resumption of Russian Gas
Trump Dials Back Putin Criticism, Renews Attacks On Zelenskyy
Trump Warns Iran of Unprecedented Bombing Campaign If Nuke Deal Not Reached
Turkey Moves To Take Control of Strategic Airbase In Central Syria
U.S. Deports 17 Accused Terrorist Gang Members to El Salvador
Vietnam and Taiwan Offer to Remove All U.S. Tariffs, Offer Increased Investment
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