Geopolitical Factors Deciding The Global World Order
1) Size and Location: Larger countries leave more land to be utilized, for growing food or infrastructure development for example. Having access to coastlines gives countries access to ports and shipping to transport goods. Countries also like to have natural borders, such as mountains to defend against other countries. This ties into the Russia-Ukraine situation currently, as Russia has no natural borders to NATO-influenced Eastern Europe.
2) Population Demographics: The working population supports the retired population. If a country has an aging population, a smaller proportion of the working population has to support the larger proportion of the aging population. As global birth rates continue to drop, this could prove a problem for many nations. It is debated that Russia's aging population is a contributing factor to their Ukraine invasion, as if they didn't do it now, would they have the choice in a decade with a reduced military?
3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP): GDP is the value of all goods and services that a country manufactures itself. It measures how much a country grows, often measured quarter to quarter. This is currently relevant in the news as some countries, specifically the US, are on the cusp of a technical recession, which is two-quarters of negative GDP growth.
4) Military Power: Any large military power can travel the globe protecting any trade routes they have established, in order to maintain any imports they bring in, or exports they send to other countries. However, with China's Belt and Road Initiative, and the Russia-Iran International North-South Transporation Corridor, some countries may not require large navies to transport their goods.
5) Natural Resources: In order to develop goods and services, natural resources are required. In the age of globalization, most goods were easy to acquire. As global trade is changing, and some countries control large portions of certain resources, it could be difficult to get everything we have access to now. One important natural resource is oil which is currently in the news as Russia pivots its trade to the East. The US also announced the chips act, aiming to produce its own semiconductor chips, which are of vital importance to the development of technology, such as electric vehicles and computer systems. As countries rely less on the trade of natural resources, expect a trend towards self-sufficiency.
6) Education and Innovation: A high level of education leads to a higher level of thinking among a country's general population. This will lead to greater innovation, which can cement a nation as a world power. If other nations struggle to replicate this technology, the country that did has a monopoly over the market, giving it a lot of influence over others.
7) Self-Sufficiency: Not many nations have the ability to be self-sufficient. Food, natural resources, and in the future, fresh water access will be of vital importance for countries who want to continue to function as they do today, and not go backward.
8) Climate: Certain countries can only grow certain foods, due to the characteristics of their climate, and the soil which they possess. Dry regions are the best for growing wheat, of which the Russian belt is one of the largest areas of production. Wetter climates are great for growing rice, another of the world's largest grown food staples. Countries that won't suffer the largest effects of climate change, have suitable weather to produce renewable energy and can grow their own food are at a major advantage.
9) Foreign Policy Power and Leverage: This ties into trade and natural resources. If a country has something that another country needs, it can demand a higher price for it. Look at Germany's electricity prices as it tries to divert away from Russian energy. Russia can continue to squeeze countries it exports a large amount of natural gas $NGAS to, as it appears to have started a commodities war with Europe and the West. On the flip side, partnerships can help boost foreign policy power. Multiple nations including Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey want to join BRICS. The Belt and Road Initiative and INSTC mentioned earlier make the trade through Eurasia an attractive option for countries.
10) Monetary Policy and Economics/Long-Term Debt Cycle: Ray Dalio discussed the short-term and the long-term debt cycles in Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order. The details are too deep to cover here, but in general, all economies work in cycles. The short-term debt cycles often end with market downturns, but the long-term debt cycle can end with changing world order and restructuring of the financial system. The current system for most is the US hegemony over the world. Are we heading for a new bipolar world order?