Geopolitics and Markets Review – 28th February 2023

Russia’s START Treaty Suspension

The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has been a key piece of diplomacy between the United States and Russia since it was first signed in 1991.

START ׀ (Signed 31 July 1991, Expired 5 December 2009) detailed that any member couldn’t deploy more than 6000 nuclear warheads and no more than 1600 ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles). The trend of nuclear disarmament started with this treaty.

Start ׀׀ was never entered into force as it was made conditional on preserving the ABM Treaty by Russia, which the US withdrew from. In response, Russia withdrew from Start ׀׀ the following day.

It was replaced by SORT (Signed 24 May 2002, Expired 5 February 2011) which limited each country’s nuclear arsenal to between 1700 and 2200 deployed warheads each.

New START (Signed 8 April 2010, End 5 February 2026) replaced the SORT. It involved an inspection of the other’s nuclear arsenal. The original expiry was to occur in 2021, but when Biden was inaugurated, both countries worked towards a five-year extension, which was signed on 3 February 2021.

In November 2022, talks were to occur between the US and Russia on resuming inspections of each other’s arsenals. Russia postponed this and a new date wasn’t set.

On 21 February 2023, Russia did not withdraw from START but did suspend its participation. This means their nuclear arsenal will not be investigated by the United States. Russia stated it would continue to abide by the limits of the number of warheads the treaty sets. They also stated a suspension of their partaking could be reversed.

Russia argues even if the United States has limits on the number of warheads, key US allies such as France and the UK do not. Under the Trump administration, talks of an extension were unproductive, but Trump made it clear he wanted to include China in the treaty. This creates an environment of strategic geopolitical competition, not geopolitical war unless we see a suspension or withdrawal. In the tit-for-tat world of geopolitics, the Russians would have been interested in how the United States would respond. The suspension of the treaty highlights the clear trend of a breakdown in communication between the United States and Russia that started with the offset of the Ukraine War.

Photo by Icons8 Team on Unsplash

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Visits Of World Leaders To Help Come To Peace Terms In Ukraine

French president Macron has announced he will visit China in April to seek the government’s help in ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Macron is in a unique position where although France is a member of NATO, he has always pushed for an EU army. An EU army of course wouldn’t include the US or the British. He said in 2019, NATO was experiencing “brain death”. He believes the Ukraine war has brought NATO purpose again. Without NATO, the expansion towards Russian borders would not have occurred. If there’s power there up for grabs, someone strong enough would make a grab for it, right? So if it wasn’t NATO, would somebody else have taken more power?