Geopolitics Review - 9th December 2024

An Escalating Europe

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The US Allows Ukraine To Use Missiles Targeting Russia

3. Russia Uses “Brand New” Missile

4. The Geopolitical Theatre vs The US Domestic Strategies

5. Concluding Remarks

6. Other News In Geopolitics This Week

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Bitesize Edition

• In November, the United States changed its stance on missile launches against Russia. They approved of the Ukrainians using ATACMS, with a range of around 300km. The Ukrainians utilized this change with an attack on a military facility in the Russian region of Bryansk.

• In response to this, the Russians unleashed what was marketed as a “brand new” missile in Dnipro. This missile is named “Oreshnik”, traveling at Mach 10, and possessing a range of 5000km. This puts Europe in the range of Oreshnik, and even parts of the United States.

• With this being the latest dramatic change in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I decided to delve into the motivations behind these decisions. Is this a sharp escalation in the conflict, or is it yet again a wonderful batch of geopolitical theatre? Finally, who benefits from these events?

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Introduction

The United States passed approval for Ukraine to use ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) on Russia in the last few weeks, in response to North Korean troops being utilized in the Kursk region. On November 19th, the Ukrainians utilizing their newfound power, launched six missiles at a military facility in Bryansk. Reports differed as to how many missiles hit, but one certainly hit as the facility was damaged.

In response to the United States and Ukraine, Russia unleashed what was marketed as the new “Oreshnik” missile in Dnipro, Ukraine.

As is usually the case, there is much more to discuss than what we hear on the surface here. Let’s dive in.

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The U.S. Allow Ukraine To Use Missiles Targeting Russia

The first question is why has the U.S. openly allowed this now?

There are two theories for how the United States is hoping to benefit from these moves. Firstly, they hope it gives Ukraine the potential to gain more ground, and hence the Ukrainians will be in a more beneficial negotiating position when Trump enters the fray in January. With Trump stating previously that he will provide Ukraine less support, leaving it to a fiscally strained Europe to handle its and Ukraine’s security in a more active role, the Democrats could be attempting one final “hurrah” of military and financial support to Ukraine.

An alternative, more cynical explanation is that this leads to escalation, which makes Trump’s job harder come January when he has promised to end the war in “24 hours”. This is the option that domestically, benefits the Democrats by hindering Trump and the early goals of his Presidency.

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

In exploring which of these scenarios is more valid, it comes down to what the current Biden administration prioritizes: Their own political future or the future of Ukraine? For most of us around the world, we want an end to this fighting in Ukraine that elites around the world have orchestrated. But for the United States, it has and always will be, America First. This won’t change with the incoming Trump administration, but while the Democrats see preserving the current world order with heavy U.S. involvement as a key priority, Trump believes in focusing inward and boosting US power by focusing less on events outside the borders of the United States.

Now that we’ve explored some potential reasoning behind the United States’ change of stance, let’s explore the use of the Oreshnik Missile by the Russians.

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Russia Uses “Brand New” Missile. Or Is It?

Firstly, what is the hype behind this missile? Is it unfounded?