Was the Russia & Ukraine conflict inevitable?

Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine is one of the most covered topics in the news. Many know about Crimea, but before this, there was the Russian and Georgian five-day conflict of 2008. Here is how it unfolded and why the Ukrainian conflict was predicted.

Back in the early 1990s, Russia and Georgia were both member states of the USSR. However, after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 they became independent nations. This uncertainty led to civil war in Georgia when two provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia wanted to declare their own independence. Importantly, Russia backed Abkhazia. There was a ceasefire in 1994 but tensions remained fraught. Into the 2000s, the EU and NATO were expanding their territory, with NATO admitting Slovenia, Slovakia, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Bulgaria on 29th March 2004. The three Baltic states were former members of the USSR and reduced the buffer zone between NATO Europe and Moscow to around 400 miles.

Throughout history, Russia has been a difficult place to be at war in. The cold winters make any progress difficult and conditions to survive are incredibly tough even without the presence of war. Think of World War Two as Nazi Germany going against the Soviet Union. The fact that Germany had to cover such massive expanses of land before finally getting to Moscow’s outskirts in early December 1941, and not having enough food and medicines led to their tiredness and the Russian counterattack forcing them so far back in retreat.

Anyway, back to Georgia. Their president Saakashvili addressed the divides within Georgia, attempting to crack down on South Ossetia. Saakashvili also accused Putin of supporting the rebel cause and arrested four Russian military officers who were suspected spies. In response, Russia closed Georgian businesses and began deporting Georgians. There were also rumblings of a NATO membership for Georgia. As we have seen in Ukraine currently, this would not have pleased Russia which needed to demonstrate its military strength.

Tensions reached boiling point on August 8th, 2008, when the South Ossetian militia and the Georgian military conflict began as Saakashvili ordered the military to take over the land, including Tskhinvali, the capital of the South Ossetia region. Russia responded and amassed its troops on the Georgian border. Over the five-day conflict, Russia rolled tanks and troops through Georgia. They took Tskhinvali with ease and rolled through Ossetia. Georgia initiating this conflict ultimately allowed the Russians to counter with this intimidation tactic, and it worked. A ceasefire on August 12th ended the conflict as Russian troops stopped 30 miles outside of Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.

Countries around the world did little to stop this short-lived war. The opposite is seen now with Ukraine as clear sides have been taken with weapons and humanitarian aid sent by numerous countries to Ukraine. If a more active response was made regarding the Georgian conflict, would we have seen the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the Ukraine situation now?

The overarching issue of Russia wishing to put distance between themselves, and NATO has controlled most of their military actions since the dissolution of the USSR and in their eyes, they were pushed into this corner by NATO expansion. Russian population, as many other populations are, is aging and decreasing in size due to a smaller birth rate. This factor could have contributed to the invasion, as if Russia didn’t do it now, would they have the option to do it later?