Military Alliances Exist For Global Peace, But They Cause Global War:
Military alliances are created in the name of peace. Everything they do is in the name of peace. But they actually bring conflict. A military alliance is defined as “a formal agreement between nations concerning national security”. But, military alliances are the main cause of global conflict.
One group becomes too big and powerful in the opinion of another group. They overstep human-created boundaries closer to the opposing group. When any person or organisation grows in power, it’s only natural they gain enemies.
We saw what not limiting expansion into other territories can do with Germany in the leadup to World War Two. The Brits and French gave them Czechoslovakia in 1938 through the Munich Pact. Not stopping expansion into other sovereign territories in the “name of peace” delays future war. Any country expanding will see how far it can push it. The same has been seen with Russia. Georgian territory in 2008, Crimea in 2014 and now Ukraine in 2022.
Why wouldn’t Russia just join NATO?
1) Russia doesn't publicise defence spending and military activity. So, NATO wouldn’t allow them to join due to all the members needing to work together.
2) NATO was created to try to hinder the rise of the Soviet Union after World War Two and during the Cold War. The entire definition of the group is to oppose Russia. If Russia joined it would have no reason to exist.
3) If Russia joined, this would put NATO on Chinese borders. The exact same problem would emerge as with NATO and Russia expansion tensions. Russia has greater geopolitical ambitions than being a NATO member, and this puts them against NATO.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we've seen the biggest period of world peace ever. No new military alliances were created between 1999 and 2015. This excludes the Turkey-Azerbaijan Agreement which is renewed every 10 years.
Why didn’t we see any new military alliances in this period? Well, the existing alliances sufficed. And even if they expanded towards another country’s borders, the other countries weren’t powerful enough to respond. Look at Russia and NATO expansion throughout the former Soviet states. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia had enough on its plate. It had to focus on rebuilding and maintaining the stability of its former territory. It tried to do this through the CSTO established in 1992. Now Russia is distracted in Ukraine, we’re seeing tensions arise yet again. But China will replace Russia as a peacekeeper in the region due to its importance in the Belt and Road Initiative.
What changed for military alliances to start being created again? Proxy wars, in Syria, pitted the US and Russia on opposite sides. We were still seeing proxy wars fought all around the world during this period of “peace”. So was it a period of peace? Or do governments fight through proxy wars to hide what’s happening? If it doesn’t affect you there’s no need to care, right?
This is exactly what we are seeing right now in Ukraine due to NATO expansion and tension on the borders between the two groups.
The difference this time is the location of the war. We all know Europe is the heart of the entire universe. That’s why so many countries are involved in Ukraine. Russia threw threats at Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The first two wanted to join NATO and the Baltics limiting Russian rail transport to Kaliningrad. Many countries have thrown sanctions at Russia to try to stop them in their tracks from any further potential expansion.
Russian missiles travel through Moldovan airspace with little regard for any consequences, as they know there won’t be any. Russia has interests and power in Moldova through Transnistria. Transnistria is a breakaway state in Moldovan territory that is under Russian occupation. We are still seeing how that went last time Russia had their eye on some territory in Ukraine. A lot of countries are involved in the Russia-Ukraine war.
NATO has expanded through Europe towards and into former Soviet Union territory. Having this amount of power that is close to their borders worries the Russians. They decided to push back against this expansion of NATO and the US global hegemony. NATO is a proxy for the US, so Russia pushing back against NATO is actually challenging the US hegemony. We know some countries, especially BRICS and the East want a multipolar world. If they want this, the US is going to make the transition as hard as possible. The dollar is the global reserve currency and with interest rates rising, they can squeeze any country that isn't a friend that holds large debts. They can also limit trade and technology, or propose sanctions. Could the US trend to becoming more isolated be them not interfering with an enemy while they’re destroying themselves? The US seem to be doing everything it can to push Russia in this direction.
Thucydides Trap is strong, so where are we heading? The fiscal and technological support to Ukraine is still flying in. Ukraine appears to be willing to sacrifice its entire country to beat back the Russians. In a week where US involvement in getting peace talks rolling has been rumoured, the war still rages on and continues to escalate. Both sides can’t lose. If Ukraine loses, we have Russia and NATO at each other’s borders. If Russia wants to take back more of its former Soviet Union land, it will have to fight NATO. Troops are already positioned along the NATO borderline, so a hot war between the two could occur in the next decade.
What leads to the collapse of military alliances? A fight between two internal members, such as Turkey and Greece? This would signify a clear difference in political strategies and would lead to countries taking sides. The instigator would be removed from NATO if they hadn’t already left of their own accord. Turkey seems to have big geopolitical goals. A gateway between Asia and Eastern Europe, they could be a key ally of China by giving easy access to Eastern Europe for trade. If a country has bigger geopolitical goals then staying in NATO to be led and hindered wouldn’t make sense for them. But breaking out and standing on their own two feet will be easier said than done under US global power.
The end of World War Two saw the US solidify its global hegemony. It did this by creating military alliances with every ally under the sun to stop any rivals from emerging. Could this spreading of power through hindering others be the reason we see further escalations? Thucydides' Trap is strong and inevitable. We’re already seeing how these future wars will be fought.
The future of the world could not unfold like this at all. But does it hurt to be prepared on the chance it does?
Sources:
List of military alliances. (2022, October 16). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_alliances
Military alliance. (2022, October 24). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_alliance
Very interesting. Completely agree with Dr. Pippa's post and the public unaware of the hybridism of warfare is part of a purposeful campaign. Propaganda is so very little perceived, but that's part of the nature of info warfare, isn't it? A question: how do you see the recession affecting the timing of these events? Or it doesn't?