Geopolitics and Markets Review – 8th January 2024

More 2024 Elections

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Key Elections - Russia, India, Indonesia

3. Concluding Remarks

4. Other News

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Bitesize Edition

• Last week, I discussed the elections in Taiwan, the United States, the UK, and Venezuela coming up in 2024.

• Today, there are further important elections to discuss in Russia, India, and Indonesia. How will these elections affect domestic, regional, and global geopolitics? Are there strong candidates expected to win, or will political change lead to sharp directional pivots in geopolitical strategy?

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Introduction

Last week, I discussed the upcoming elections this year in Taiwan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela. These elections are part of the group I believe will have the biggest global ramifications, but there are many other elections to assess in this upcoming year. Today, I’ll make more comments on these events, who the key players are, and how the aftermath of these elections could affect the future of these countries.

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Key Elections

Russia (President) – The Russian presidential election is set to take place in March 2024. A candidate has to receive half of the vote, otherwise a second round will occur three weeks later. Vladimir Putin is strongly expected to win the Presidency for a third term. By Point 3 of Article 81 in Russia’s constitution, the same person can’t hold the presidency for more than two terms in a row. With his elections in 2012 and 2018, by the constitution, Putin shouldn’t be able to run in the 2024 election. But in January of 2020, Putin made amendments to the Russian constitution and these changes were approved by vote. Hence as we all expected, Putin runs again, and he will win again. He can also run in any election until 2036!