Geopolitics Review - 14th April 2025
The Donald Diaries: The Future of Europe
Contents
Introduction
The New Power-Based Empire: Is Russia’s Sphere of Influence In Eastern Europe?
A Reverse Nixon
Concluding Remarks
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Bitesize Edition
Throughout its history, because it is such a huge landmass, Russia has always had the geopolitical aim of ensuring its own security. Back in centuries past when all we did was fight with one another, this was a valid aim. However, in the world today, where many parts of the world are lucky enough to have access to all the necessities they need, it’s worth questioning why Russia still thinks this way.
For anybody who wants to argue that the Russians don’t think this way, Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine would say otherwise. Four separate occasions aren’t all coincidences; it’s a pattern. With U.S.-EU relations souring, tension has emerged in the NATO alliance, and Europe has to seriously consider life without the United States. The trust that once existed here has been shattered, and it’s questionable if relations will be the same ever again.
If Russia pursues its territorial aspirations in the future, this would still be right on Europe’s doorstep. However, with the Europeans weak economically and militarily, they likely need help to emerge from this current predicament. Could this see a European pivot towards the panda to the east?
Introduction
I’ve explored the Russia-Ukraine conflict largely from the opinion of the United States and Trump thus far. Today, I’ll explore the Russian way of thinking about their “special military operation” while also diving into the effects this conflict has had on the Europeans and where they could pivot to as relations sour with Trump and the United States. Let’s dive in.
The New Power-Based Empire: Is Russia’s Sphere of Influence In Eastern Europe?
Analysts such as Peter Zeihan, who can exist on the side of exaggeration and grandiosity, do deserve credit for calling the Russian invasion of Ukraine years before it actually occurred. This fact highlights a clear point that Russia’s key geopolitical aim is the future security of its nation. This still involves plugging areas of easy geographical access into Russia, even as new realms of geopolitical competition such as cyber, space, technology, and trade make geographical lines more blurred. The access areas into Russia are as follows:
The White Sea/The Arctic
The Baltic Sea
The Polish Plains
The Bessarabian Gap
The Black Sea and Crimea
The Caucasus
The Caspian Sea
The Central Asian Corridor
Trans-Altai Gap
It’s these nine gaps that Russia believes offer the easiest access into Russia.
I’ll first note that Russia hasn’t been invaded by a foreign nation since World War Two. Keep this in the back of your mind while I discuss this. Russia’s geopolitical goal has always been to reach territorial expansion where it can properly manage these access points. This involves Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Kazakhstan. Ukraine was predicted by many analysts because it is on the way to Poland, Moldova, Romania, and the Baltic states. If Ukraine ends in a settlement, it’s likely that Trump and his team will ask Ukraine to give up the annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Crimea being recognised as Russian could also be involved.
But this wouldn’t plug a gap for Russia. My first question here is, do the Russians still believe they have to plug geographical gaps? Their actions over the last few decades under Putin’s rule would imply they believe they do. Putin himself has stated that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest failure in the history of Russia. Recapturing some of this former might is likely a factor that motivates Putin.
Secondly, does this imply that they will continue to seek to influence Ukraine and will then push towards the other Eastern European nations? The answer here requires more nuance. We’re not in 2014 anymore. Little Green Men in unmarked uniforms can’t stroll across a sovereign border because the card has been played before. We have eyes in the sky that monitor the world and can see troops amassing on borders, just as we did in 2022. It was allowed to happen then, but it can’t be allowed to happen again.
Today, the game of geopolitical conflict is slower, subtler, and more strategic, especially as the definition of what war is expands. Russian actions in the Baltic Sea with infrastructure damage, their rhetoric in recent years around the Sulwalki Gap, their actions in Transnistria in Moldova, and drones accidentally crossing into Moldova and Romanian airspace could certainly be indications of Russia’s attempts to spread unrest in these nations, but if this is to occur, it would be over a long period of time. Russia has been the aggressor in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine. Four separate occurrences aren’t a coincidence, so Europe should individually pursue a deterrent. They are attempting to do this with their attempts to rearm, but with debt issues for many European nations, including France, how realistic is this?
Of course, any clash would put Russia and NATO on a collision course outside of Ukraine and Moldova, who aren’t members of the alliance. But Europe is preparing for life without the United States in NATO. Regardless of whether Trump pulls them out or not, their role is already been reduced dramatically in the group. European security is for the Europeans to worry about, as it always should have been. With Trump on a road towards building bridges with Russia and Putin, he likely wouldn’t get actively involved in such a tussle if it arose. Hence, a Russia-NATO collision course would transform into a Russia-Europe collision course.
We will look back on these times as the biggest geopolitical shifts since the end of World War Two. With the United States and Europe distancing, there will be second- and third-order effects of this. We could delve into a focus on trade, military cooperation, or energy here, but I believe it’s more important to remain focused on the macro scale. The biggest question on my mind in recent weeks hasn’t been if the United States is trying to peel Russia away from China, which some analysts have reported, its been if we see a European pivot to China.
A Reverse Nixon
These dramatic shifts since the beginning of Trump’s Presidency demonstrate that major geopolitical shifts are at play. Is the United States hoping that the Russia-China relationship could be weakened by a restarting of Russia-U.S. relations? Some reports state that Trump is in pursuit of Nixon’s policy in the 1970s, which saw Russia and China decouple. There are some key differences to note.
Back then, Russia and China were adversaries. Mao decided Russia was his biggest enemy, and relations had been declining for years. Nixon took credit, but he was seen as having pulled the trigger that somebody would have pulled anyway. This is completely different today, with China and Russia describing themselves as friends with “no limits”.
If Trump is trying to pull a Nixon, he will fail. Geopolitical memory isn’t that shallow, and in a world where Russia has typically been an adversary of the United States, there are multiple triggers that could cause relations to slip in this direction again. This could occur in a matter of weeks with Russia not making progress in Ukraine talks because they don’t want a ceasefire at all. Trump is placing Russia in a very favourable position, and Russia is being painted as a huge geopolitical player, which is exactly how Russia sees itself. Russia will likely want to drag out these negotiations to see what Trump is willing to offer, but the asks are too large, as I discussed in my future scenarios piece a few weeks ago.
So, just as many Presidents before him, tensions will likely see Trump fail here too. If he doesn’t improve relations with Russia, what cost would this come at? We know he’s taking an aggressive approach by placing tariffs on over 180 countries, but would he have any allies left who trust him?
I believe the Trump administration isn’t considering the massive geopolitical shifts that could occur. They are positioning themselves to be open for a reverse Nixon. A Russia-U.S. boosted relationship would weaken EU-US relations, but enough damage has already been done to EU-US relations even if a Russia-US reapproachment deal falls apart.
Russia-EU relations are frosty at best and will remain this way, especially with Russian threats against the Baltics, Poland, Moldova, and Romania existing in the back of Europeans’ minds. The interesting wildcard is when we introduce China into this matrix of interactions.
The European Union has structural problems. Mario Draghi wrote a huge report on European efficiency, giving the alliance three years before the point of no return. With the EU needing an answer, does this open the door for an EU pivot to China? They can’t do it alone, there are too many holes to plug. On April 8th, Ursula Von Der Leyen held a phone call with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. It was stressed that the global trade system should be “free, fair, and on a level playing field.” Possible diversions in trade due to tariffs were also mentioned. In July, an EU-China summit will mark 50 years of diplomatic relations, but could it be a marker of much more? Just today, we saw President Xi ask the EU to team up against Trump’s “bullying”. Geopolitical lines are being redrawn!
A new Concert of Europe is impossible because European attitudes towards Russia will remain sour, and EU-US relations have taken a huge negative hit. The alternative is an EU pivot to China. If such a pivot occurs, the EU would have to carefully ensure it didn’t become dependent on China, but with the group economically fractured and suffering from stagnating productivity, something has to change. This change could be that the EU has to prioritize trade over its perceived values, and China being such a big player in trade would paint them as an answer. This could further weaken NATO and see China gain massive legitimacy as a global superpower.
Our geopolitical world is shifting at a dramatic pace.
Concluding Remarks
The shifts we’ve seen in the first few months of Trump’s presidency will have ripple effects that we’re yet to see. In Ray Dalio’s Changing World Order, he details the Big Cycle, which details how empires decline and are eventually replaced. The criteria that determines the strength of an empire are:
Education
Innovation and Technology
Competitiveness
Military Strength
Trade
Economic Output
Financial Centre
FX Reserve Status
Education, competitiveness, and innovation start to fall first. Do you believe the United States is in a state of decline in these characteristics? The final determinant that falls is the Reserve FX status, and this has also come under pressure in recent years. Russian FX reserves being confiscated by the United States saw trust fall in the dollar system. If it can happen to them, why not any other nation that is perceived as an adversary of the United States? U.S. Treasury holdings held by other nations have been dropping in the last few years. With Trump’s return to the Oval Office, he has also been alienating his allies.
China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange is providing nations with an alternative way to trade in their own currencies since they can always swap currencies they don’t want to keep for gold. A digital RMB cross-border settlement system will also allow ten ASEAN nations and six Middle Eastern countries to bypass the SWIFT system.
Alternative multipolar systems are being built before our very eyes, and they likely won’t gain immediate traction, but the fact they are being pursued at all says everything about global unhappiness towards a unipolar world. The United States does need to pursue dramatic change to reverse its declining indicators, but whether its current strategy is slowing down or speeding up its empire’s decline will be told with time.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week:
China Rejects “Groundless” Claims Of Military Involvement In Ukraine
China Raises Tariffs To 125%. Will Ignore Future Retaliation
French Business Leaders Reject Macron’s Call To Diversify From U.S.
Gabbard Starts Task Force To Investigate Intelligence Community
Israeli Military: Hamas Still Has 75% of Tunnels and 40,000 Fighters
Kremlin Complains Questions On Ceasefire Left Unanswered By U.S.
New York Bill Proposes Using BTC and Crypto For State Payments
Oklo Among 8 Nuclear Companies Selected To Provide Microreactors To U.S. Military Bases
Russian Duma Ratifies 20-Year Defence and Energy Pact With Iran
Second U.S. Carrier Travels Through Indian Ocean To Join Yemen War
Semiconductor Tariffs Coming In “A Month Or Two”. Current Exemption Only Temporary
Six Jumbo Jets of iPhones Leave India as Apple Scrambles to Beat Tariffs
Tesla Removes “Order Now” From Chinese Site For Model S and X
Trump Admin To Fine Illegals $1000 A Day Until They Self Deport
Trump To Netanyahu: Can’t Reduce Tariffs. Give You $4B A Year
Washington and Riyadh Agree To Pathway For Saudi Civilian Nuclear Program
White House Considering Withdrawing 10,000 Troops From Eastern Europe
Thanks for reading! I’d greatly appreciate it if you were to like or share this post with others! If you want more, then subscribe on Substack for these posts delivered directly to your email inbox. I research history, geopolitics, and financial markets to understand the world and the people around us. If any of my work helps you be more prepared and eases your mind, that’s great. If you like what you read, please share it with others.
Key Links
The Geopolitics Explained Podcast
If you want to see daily updates and discover other newsletters that suit you, download the Substack App.
You can become a paid subscriber to support my work. There are paid posts every Thursday and long-form monthly articles in my global questions series exclusively for paid subscribers. The Geopolitics Database is also accessible. Read Geopolitics Explained for 20p per day or start a free trial below to find out if my work is for you! I appreciate your support!
Pushing Europe to the edge of a precipice may seem like a brilliant tactical move. But strategically? Some signals are already visible: after a decade of persisting underperformance, European equities have significantly outperformed U.S. stocks since the beginning of 2025. The Euro is soaring against the Dollar. The gap to be filled is still huge. But international investors are astute; they understand long-term dynamics. They move real money, not dumb money.
https://open.substack.com/pub/marketszoon/p/europe-is-either-emerging-as-a-global?r=58uzcq&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false