Geopolitics Review - 16th December 2024

Conditions For Negotiation

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Negotiation Conditions

3. Are There Any Non-Negotiables?

4. Debunking Claims From Both Sides

5. Concluding Remarks

6. Other News In Geopolitics This Week

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Bitesize Edition

• One long-standing geopolitical issue that continues to affect the world today is a conversation between Mikhail Gorbachev and Western officials regarding the future of NATO over thirty years ago.

• As a part of the reunification of Germany, by some sources, an oral agreement was made that if the Soviets left East Germany, NATO wouldn’t expand one inch eastwards. According to other sources, no such conversation occurred.

• The world we live in today is one where NATO has expanded. When this issue arrived in Ukraine, it led to rising tensions, culminating in the current Russia-Ukraine war.

• This is one of an array of factors contributing to the war in Ukraine, but it demonstrates how the world system has some deep-lying issues that need addressing. One such issue should be ending the war in Ukraine and how we move forward from there.

• With Trump arriving in January and promising to end the conflict in less than 24 hours, what key points do Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin want from any agreement? Are there any non-negotiables that need to be navigated, and what long-standing beliefs of all geopolitical actors here have contributed to this world we find ourselves in decades later?

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Introduction

Last week, I discussed the recent changes in the Ukraine war, with the addition of ATACMS and Russia’s use of the Oreshnik missile in Dnipro. In the face of these changes, I decided it would be good to reflect on potential scenarios of peace and negotiation. Especially with Trump promising peace in a day, it is worth exploring what each side would want to achieve in a scenario that stops the fighting. With that in mind, let’s explore below.

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Negotiation Conditions

I listened to the Tucker Carlson interview with Sergei Lavrov last Friday, and the one key takeaway I took amongst the noise was that Russia still stands by the Istanbul Communique from 2022 as their terms for any agreement after the conflict. The terms were as follows:

• Ukraine was allowed to apply for EU membership as a neutral state.

• Limits placed on the size of Ukraine’s military.

• Ukraine ceases NATO membership plans.

• Foreign military bases are banned in Ukraine.

• Russia and Western countries listed as guarantors are obliged to assist Ukraine in the event of aggression against it.

• Crimea was to be negotiated after 10 or 15 years.

• Russia keeps the territory it possesses, and the four oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

The Istanbul Comminique was not agreed to by both sides when first proposed. As is well known, Boris Johnson hopped on a Boris Bike and rode all the way to Kyiv. He told Zelenskyy to carry on fighting, and here we remain at war today. The Bucha Massacre was also noted as a reason negotiations were cut off. One key issue with the proposal was that if a military intervention was to occur, all guarantors would have to agree. Hence Russia themselves could have vetoed a military response, even if Russia was the aggressor.

On the flip side, we have what the Ukrainians would hope to gain from any negotiation. Olaf Scholz visited Ukraine a few weeks ago, and it is suspected he was visiting to see what Zelenskyy is willing to accept or decline when it comes to peace in Ukraine.

Photo by Tina Hartung on Unsplash

It’s worth exploring where Ukraine still sees this conflict and the conditions for a potential cessation of fighting. In a recent interview with Sky News, Zelenskyy laid this out. We have also had previous conditions on Ukraine’s part from the late 2022 Ukraine Peace Formula. His and Ukraine’s conditions were: