Geopolitics and Markets Review – 10th June 2024

France and Azerbaijan In New Caledonia, And Further Afield

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The History Of New Caledonia

3. France And Azerbaijan: A Long Way From Home

4. Looking Forward: New Caledonia, France-Azerbaijan Relations

5. Concluding Remarks

6. Other News This Week In Geopolitics

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Bitesize Edition

• A few months ago in a written series, I discussed the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been disputed since 1988 with the First Nagorno-Karabakh War.

• To give a short version of my series, the Armenians won the first war, ending in 1994. This saw Nagorno-Karabakh gain de facto independence and de facto unification with Armenia. The Armenians also gained control of other territories surrounding the region on the border with Azerbaijan.

• Fast forward to 2020, and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War saw a reversal, with Azerbaijan claiming 73% control of the disputed territory. Since then, we’ve seen the conclusion to the conflict with the dissolution of the territory on January 1^st, 2024. However, the border crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues. On 24^th May this year, we saw Armenia return the villages of Baganis Ayrum, Asagi Eskipara, Heyrimli, and Kizilhacili to Azerbaijan. The cards clearly sit in the hands of the Azeris, who have a larger population and economy. They have COP 29 coming up this year, are a huge player in natural gas markets, and geographically sit as a land bridge between Russia, Europe, and Asia, while also having trade routes through the Caspian Sea and through Georgia to the Black Sea.

• It used to be the Russians who maintained peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, with the 2020 conflict and the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive, Russian peacekeepers did little to stop the Azeris. This has led the Armenians to distance themselves from Russia and look elsewhere for support. This has seen them pivot to the West. A Western partner they’ve found who seems very willing to provide them with weapons and support is the French.

• So, we’re now finding Azerbaijani flags being waved in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. How does all this connect? Find out more below.

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Introduction

I’ll provide the links to my series on Azerbaijan and Armenia here. It was one of my favourite series of research I’ve done for Geopolitics Explained, and for those seeking a detailed background into this issue, I certainly dived deep into the research.

• https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/geopolitics-and-markets-review-5th-1de

• https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/geopolitics-and-markets-review-12th-b18

• https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/geopolitics-and-markets-review-19th-970

• https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/geopolitics-and-markets-review-26th

For this piece, let’s dive into how the conflict for Nagorno-Karabakh has seen secondary and tertiary consequences, summarised by the French and Azeris being embroiled in rising geopolitical tensions.

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The History Of New Caledonia

To start, what and where is New Caledonia? The archipelago is located in the Pacific, 750 miles east of Australia.

Figure 1 - New Caledonia. (2024, June 7). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Caledonia. Light Grey = North Province. Dark Grey = South Province. White = Loyalty Islands.

It was annexed by the French in September 1853, became an overseas territory in 1946, and the Noumea Accord in 1998 set the groundwork for a process to give more power to the local government on the island. This process was set to last 20 years and was to lead to three referendums on independence.

Hence, in 2018, a referendum was held for New Caledonia's independence. The independence was rejected in the vote. A repeat referendum in October 2020 was once again rejected with 53.4% of voters choosing to remain as a part of France. A third referendum in December 2021 was boycotted by those who wished for independence. Hence 96% of voters chose to remain with France.

The recent events were caused by attempts at electoral reform in New Caledonia. The French stated if another independence election were to occur, they wanted it to be more representative of the entire population. As a result, riots broke out, largely originating from the pro-independence Kanaks.

Photo by Maan Limburg on Unsplash

Eight people have died as a result of the riots, caused by France attempting to enlarge the non-indigenous electorate in New Caledonia. The Noumea Accord restricted local elections to pre-1998 residents and any descendants who resided continuously in New Caledonia for at least 10 years. The French want to change this to give voting rights in local elections to anybody who has lived in the territory for over 10 years only. This would allow 60% of those prevented from voting to vote, many of whom are of European and Polynesian descent. This would dilute the ethnic landscape of the indigenous Kanak people.

Since many pro-independence voters boycotted the 2021 referendum, they don’t believe the process set out by the Noumea Accord has been fulfilled.

A state of emergency was declared three days after the riots commenced on 16^th May.

Since then, Macron visited the island on the 22^nd of May and willed the island to reach an agreement within a month. There is also the possibility of a referendum regarding the changes the French wish to make. The emergency was concluded on 28^th May.

So, this is what happened in the rising tensions and riots in New Caledonia. The next question that arises is where the Azeris tie into this.