Geopolitics Review - 28th October 2024
The BRICS Summit and The Future Of The World Order
Contents
Introduction
Key Takeaways
The Future of The Multipolar World
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
What emerged as an economic bloc in 2001 is rising in geopolitical importance. The latest BRICS summit saw 24 world leaders and 32 delegations meet in Kazan, Russia. Some accuse the group of making little active progress in its establishment of an alternative global system, but I’d argue differently. Sometimes, an idea can light a spark, leading to efforts and inspiration. We’re at a precipice where the spark could die out, or fuel could maintain this spark.
Outside of visible policy, the group represents dissatisfaction by many countries with the current international system. This summit saw no new major policy decisions proposed or pursued, but the existence of the group is indicative of the emergence of multipolarity. The group seems inspired to find fuel to continue this spark.
I’ll explore the biggest takeaways from this recent summit in which we’ve seen China and India solidify a border deal, Azerbaijan and Armenia seated next to each other, Venezuela’s Maduro giving a speech against the current world order, and the announcement of new BRICS partner countries, among other news.
I’ll then explore the longer-term geopolitical, financial, and technological trends unfolding as we see a multipolar world arising, and the new ways in which modern-day conflicts are being fought today on new battlegrounds. Could the future of conflict revolve around space or the cyber realm? Find out more below.
Introduction
The latest BRICS summit was hosted in Kazan, Russia this past week. The summit seemed to bring no drastic policy shifts from the BRICS group, but below the surface, it’s an indication of discontent amongst many countries in the world at the current status of the international world order. What key takeaways can we garner from the summit, and how do these changes affect the long-term direction of the world we live in today?
Key Takeaways
Guterres Visits BRICS Summit - The UN Secretary-General Guterres paid a visit to the BRICS summit in a diplomatic role. However, it could be seen as the UN’s recognition of the rising role BRICS is playing in geopolitics. Does this indicate the UN seeks to bridge inequalities between developing and underdeveloped nations versus the developed world? After all, it is usually the developed world that possesses the loudest, most influential voices in the room, but they aren’t the only voices. This idea of voice in geopolitics has also been seen in several nations seeking to join the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, namely India, the African Union, Japan, Germany, Brazil, and Argentina. Permanent members have the power to veto any proposal individually. The critique during the summit of Western institutions is an indication of the rising role BRICS wants to play in the pursuit of a more fair world by reforming institutions that better consider the needs of the developing and underdeveloped world. This would, of course, affect the United Nations. The Guterres visit will not be perceived well by Ukraine and leader Zelenskyy, who will see it as a legitimisation of what is supposed to be an isolated global power in Russia after its war in Ukraine commenced in February 2022. The number of countries visiting this year’s summit seems to negate Russia’s isolation, but Putin didn’t attend the summit in South Africa last year and hasn’t made many trips abroad in recent years. Russia itself may not be isolated from the geopolitical game, but Putin himself is limited in his movements, in part due to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him.
China-India Diplomacy - The border deal first reported by India was later confirmed by China. The BRICS Summit was the first in-person display of diplomacy between Xi and Modi since the news broke. I’ll discuss this more on Thursday, so subscribe if you don’t want to miss that.
Photo by swapnil vithaldas on Unsplash Visiting Country Members - 24 world leaders and 32 foreign delegations attended the summit. The most notable absences were Lula, with Mauro Vieira representing Brazil in his place after the President suffered a minor brain haemorrhage. New members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates also attended. Turkey’s attendance continues to enforce them as a rising power in geopolitics, balancing NATO membership with potential BRICS aspirations. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was personally by Putin but didn’t attend himself, sending a representative instead. The final absentee of note was President of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel, with Cuba currently experiencing blackouts and “serious energy problems”. Cuba requested to join the BRICS group as a partner country on October 8th. This is notable after the military exercises that unfolded in the Caribbean in June involving Russia and Cuba. This saw the United States deploy assets to shadow the Russians.
Maduro Criticises The UN And His Domestic Issues Follow Him To Russia - Back home, Venezuela has been experiencing protests against the election of Maduro for a third consecutive term in a highly debated result, with polling before the election heavily doubting Maduro’s chances of re-election. And so, Maduro will have hoped for a change of scenery to distance himself from the issues back home. However, Brazil-Venezuela relations have been declining after Lula stated he wouldn’t accept the results of the Venezuela election without a breakdown of the results. Further tensions have existed since Venezuela set its sights on Guyana’s offshore oil supplies and the Essequibo region, with Brazil moving military assets in December of 2023 to secure the Northern border and act as a deterrent to Venezuela, who were themselves had been amassing military assets near Guyana’s border. Brazil hence vetoed Venezuela’s membership aspiration to BRICS. Putin openly disagreed with Brazil in this move, stating Venezuela is “fighting for survival”. Putin did state he sought to improve relations between the two South American states. An improvement in relations between the two could involve the decline in regional tensions between Venezuela and Guyana. As for Maduro’s speech, he spoke of the divergences between UN policy in different conflicts. He spoke of the Middle East, and where the United Nations justice system has been in the face of thousands dying in Gaza and Lebanon. He later stated how the UN needed refounding in what he later referred to as “a dying system”.
Partner Countries Given Preliminary Status - Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, and Vietnam were all given preliminary status, a prerequisite for eventual permanent membership in the group. Progress on Saudi Arabia joining the group hasn’t received an update for some time after they haven’t yet formalised their membership, but the group has been invited and participates in some BRICS activities as they did with this summit. A security guarantee deal with the United States has been whispered as a part of potential normalization with Israel, but with the Middle East rather fragile, this doesn’t yet look possible, Still, Saudi Arabia is another nation balancing multiple sides in the emerging rifts in geopolitics as multiple poles emerge.
No BRICS Currency, Apart From Mock Banknote. Won’t Be Publicly Discussed - The topic of the BRICS currency was discussed in the leaders meeting, but won’t be mentioned publically. The use of trade in alternative currencies is being promoted by BRICS over the issue of a new currency today, but this transition will take decades to unfold, not years. The group possess over 40% of the world‘s population, a third of the world’s GDP, and close to 30% of the world’s oil production. A plan to introduce a BRICS currency, a move heavily influenced by Russia’s Sergei Lavrov who has proposed the idea for over a decade, will not yet be pursued publically, but this didn’t stop Putin from revealing physical mock bank notes, designed with a nod to each of the first five members. One such issue that was made public was BRICS Pay, a rival to the SWIFT system for international payments. Other plans include a BRICS credit rating system, an insurance underwriting structure, and BRICS Bridge, a digital payment platform. BRICS has big aspirations and is working towards establishing institutions necessary in an operational global system.
BRICS Pay, A Swift Replacement, Soft Launched. Banking Connections - BRICS Pay is painted as a competitor to SWIFT which Russia was suspended from after the invasion of Ukraine. The system revolves around connecting key banks from the original five BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to facilitate trade better. Although painted as a rival to SWIFT, in this early stage, it won’t be anywhere near rivalling the SWIFT system and will be utilised more by the BRICS nations only. I’ll discuss international trade in more detail later on in this piece.
Azerbaijan-Armenia Diplomacy - Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev sat side by side at the summit sharing a few words. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh saw Azerbaijan take control from Armenia in September 2023 in a large offensive. The Azeri offensive wasn’t blocked by Russian peacekeepers in the region and has hence seen Armenia's relations with Russia suffer. Armenia has since received weapons aid from the French and India and has pulled funding for the CSTO. However, as I discussed after the Azerbaijani offensive into the region, the Azeris are in the driver’s seat here, and with the COP 29 conference unfolding next month in Baku, tensions won’t re-escalate any time soon. A dispute over four villages on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan also saw Azerbaijan gain control of more territory earlier this year. The details of the exchange from the summit haven’t come to light, but the Azeris remain in control here. There are further issues to be hashed out here between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but this won’t be a story over the coming months. For more details on the background of this conflict, head to my Geopolitics Database and search the Countries section for Armenia or Azerbaijan. All posts can be found there.
The Future Of The Multipolar World?
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