Game Theory and Geopolitics

Dylan Muggleton
Sep 12, 2023
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In Geopolitics, one trend that will prove vital in coming decades is how level-headed our leaders remain. The clean energy transition, CBDCs, AI, quantum computing. These technologies have the potential to create unimaginable productivity and wealth gains, but the chaos must be controlled. Information is becoming more powerful by the day, and access more limited.

Reasons such as this are why our leaders need to use negotiation intelligently and work together towards win-win relationships. Communication between leaders on either side of the multipolar world order must be maintained.

This series explores the connections between Game Theory and Geopolitics, through the scope of Mathematics and Psychology.

This series concluded on April 27th 2023.

Game Theory: An Introduction

Dylan Muggleton
·
January 5, 2023
Game Theory: An Introduction

Towards the end of last year, I mentioned my created framework for five key geopolitical trends that will define the next decade. 1) Self-Sufficiency 2) Self-Interest 3) Connectivity 4) Game Theory 5) CyclesThanks for reading Geopolitics Report! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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Game Theory: The Games of Geopolitics

Dylan Muggleton
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January 12, 2023
Game Theory: The Games of Geopolitics

I started the section on game theory last week with an introduction. I provided some examples of some of the most common games played under the game theory umbrella. I hope this provided a platform from which we can build as we tie together game theory and geopolitics.

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Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 1

Dylan Muggleton
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January 20, 2023
Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 1

When attempting to locate an optimal strategy in any game, there is some information that could aid us in choosing the optimal strategy. We need to calculate the probabilities of a specific event occurring. For example, the probability in a two-player game of rock, paper, scissors of you winning is always ⅓, which is equal to 3/9.

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Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 2

Dylan Muggleton
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January 26, 2023
Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 2

I’m starting to really look forward to these Thursday writing sessions. So much so that I have written more but I don't want to release too much in one go. We’re back to one of my favourite topics, mathematics. The language of the universe. Of so many things we understand and are yet to understand.

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Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 3

Dylan Muggleton
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February 2, 2023
Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 3

Risk of ruin describes the probability that an individual will lose such amounts of money that they reach the point where recovering the losses is impossible or they don’t have sufficient capital to continue what they were doing, be it trading, investing, or gambling. The risk of ruin is typically calculated using value-at-risk.

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Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 4

Dylan Muggleton
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February 9, 2023
Game Theory: The Mathematics of Game Theory – Part 4

This will be the final part of the mathematics of game theory, completing the four-part series.Thanks for reading Geopolitics Report! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Let’s return to the beginning when I wrote the introduction to this section on game theory in mathematics. We discussed the Nash Equilibria, which describes the …

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Game Theory: The Psychology of Game Theory - Introduction and Part 1

Dylan Muggleton
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February 16, 2023
Game Theory: The Psychology of Game Theory - Introduction and Part 1

The theory of social situations is how psychologists describe the game theory. We discussed the mathematics of game theory in the previous chapter and now we’ll approach game theory from a psychological point of view. This details how parties interact with each other. So decision-making, negotiation, and many other aspects.

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Game Theory: The Psychology of Game Theory - Part 2:

Dylan Muggleton
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February 23, 2023
Game Theory: The Psychology of Game Theory - Part 2:

Those in power can tell any story in any way they see fit. We have seen this in the past week with Seymour Hersh’s investigation into the Nord Stream attacks. With hindsight, it becomes rather obvious that both the United States and Norway benefitted. The United States keep Germany down and break that connection to Russia that throughout history has oft…

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Can We Hide From Geopolitics? And Can Geopolitics Hide From Us?

Dylan Muggleton
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March 3, 2023
Can We Hide From Geopolitics? And Can Geopolitics Hide From Us?

A little side note, this is still a part of the Thursday pieces on game theory, but I’m going to not include the numbered parts in the title. If somebody just sees a part 3 of something, chances are they aren’t going to read it. Plus the overarching topic is game theory, but each piece isn’t strongly connected to the others, so numbering parts doesn’t r…

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The Power of Information

Dylan Muggleton
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March 9, 2023
The Power of Information

Rivalry vs Antagonism The situation we find the United States and China embroiled in is intensifying in recent months with the spy balloon and export bans on semiconductors and related materials from the US to China. At the G20, it looked as though relations between the US and Chinese were improving as we saw a Xi-Biden handshake. But in this fast-moving…

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How Do Geopolitical Analysts Predict The Future?

Dylan Muggleton
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March 16, 2023
How Do Geopolitical Analysts Predict The Future?

Peter Zeihan predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine before 2022 when they annexed the Crimean Peninsula, in 2014. There are many other examples of geopoliticians predicting events years before they happen. So how do they do this? And how does game theory tie into predicting this?

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Your Loss Is My Gain In Geopolitics

Dylan Muggleton
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March 23, 2023
Your Loss Is My Gain In Geopolitics

This is the concept of zero-sum in game theory. The sum of all the players’ payoffs is equal to zero. There can even be more than two players. Poker and chess are examples of zero-sum games. In poker, the total amount of money bet in every round is won by another player, and in chess, someone wins, and someone loses.

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The Geopolitical Negotiating Table

Dylan Muggleton
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March 30, 2023
The Geopolitical Negotiating Table

It is commonly known that being the one to make the first move in a negotiation process, you have the advantage. You set the start point, and the timing, and you can influence the negotiations to your advantage more than your counterparty. But, the danger of starting with a proposal that is deemed so unfair by the counterparty that they immediately leav…

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Don’t Hate The Ever-Changing Player, Hate The Ever-Changing Game

Dylan Muggleton
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April 6, 2023
Don’t Hate The Ever-Changing Player, Hate The Ever-Changing Game

Sections 1) Introduction 2) Types of Dynamic Games 3) Modelling Dynamic Games 4) Game Trees 5) Markov Decision Processes 6) Solving Markov Decision Processes Using Monte Carlo 7) Multiplayer Markov Decision ProcessesThanks for reading Geopolitics Report! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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Biases and Knowledge Gaps In Game Theory and Geopolitics

Dylan Muggleton
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April 13, 2023
Biases and Knowledge Gaps In Game Theory and Geopolitics

Sections in this Piece: 1) Introduction 2) Biases and Knowledge Gaps in Game Theory 3) Biases and Knowledge Gaps in Geopolitics 4) Do Some Leadership Structures Contribute To More Biases and Knowledge Gaps? 5) Cycles of Leadership and Empires – Can It Ever End?

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How Business Sector Structure Affects The Game Theory of Financial Markets

Dylan Muggleton
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April 20, 2023
How Business Sector Structure Affects The Game Theory of Financial Markets

Sections 1) Introduction 2) Conflict Between Countries vs Conflict Between Businesses 3) Monopolies 4) Duopolies 5) Oligopolies 6) Perfect Competition 7) Monopolistic Competition 8) The Economics of The Nash Equilibrium – Do They Exist?

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The Game Theory of Now

Dylan Muggleton
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April 27, 2023
The Game Theory of Now

This is going to be my final piece on game theory within geopolitics. I’ve discussed mathematics, psychology, and economics. Now we’re going to tie everything together to finally discuss the geopolitics of game theory. During peace cycles, geopolitics is less prevalent. But as tensions grow, coinciding with the re-emergence of the war aspect of the peace…

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The Global Questions Series: Number 2 – Midgard

Dylan Muggleton
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Jan 31
The Global Questions Series: Number 2 – Midgard

Contents Introduction Biden and Xi: A Fight For Market Share Vice Presidency Relationship China and The United States Relations Relationships in Geopolitics – Their Importance The Current System – The Game Theory of US-China Relations Biden and Xi: Win-Win or Lose-Lose?

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