How Do Geopolitical Analysts Predict The Future?

Peter Zeihan predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine before 2022 when they annexed the Crimean Peninsula, in 2014. There are many other examples of geopoliticians predicting events years before they happen. So how do they do this? And how does game theory tie into predicting this?

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Scenario Analysis

This is something I do with my investing. If any situation imaginable emerges, then scenario analysis means you already have a plan in place set to deal with it, and what any secondary or tertiary consequences of this event could be.

Photo by petr sidorov on Unsplash

After Russia interfered in Georgia in 2008, and Crimea in 2014, scenario analysis could be used to determine where Russia would attempt to plug next as they want to increase the distance between their borders and capital. As Peter Zeihan states in his works, there are 8 ways to easily get into Russia militarily. Ukraine is on the way to two of them, and so if the theory that Russia is trying to make it more difficult to traverse its land by annexing territory is true, it makes sense they would focus on Ukraine to kill two birds with one stone. The gaps they want to plug will be plugged in the Carpathian Mountains and in Poland if they ever were to get that far.

Regardless of the circumstance, scenario analysis is a great method not only in geopolitics or investing. It allows us to prepare and plan for events that haven’t yet occurred. If we take it further and plan for the secondary and tertiary consequences of each scenario, we become more prepared than anybody.

To prepare, we need information, research, and context.