Game Theory: The Psychology of Game Theory - Part 2:

Information – How It Tells The Stories Of Modern Geopolitics

Those in power can tell any story in any way they see fit. We have seen this in the past week with Seymour Hersh’s investigation into the Nord Stream attacks. With hindsight, it becomes rather obvious that both the United States and Norway benefitted. The United States keep Germany down and break that connection to Russia that throughout history has often brought instability to mainland Europe. Norway, although a key player in the natural gas sector, suddenly became the place where Europe looked to when it came to filling their storages to battle through the winter without a Russian supply.

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Hindsight In Geopolitics

Hindsight is how we understand and interpret events after they have happened. We have to be careful of hindsight bias, where players act as though they knew what was going to happen all along. In short, before they happened these events were deemed more predictable than they actually were.

Geopolitics is quite a theoretical field. Data can tell a lot of stories, but extrapolation (continuation of a trend) isn’t certain. That is why using cycles throughout history is so important. They have stood the test of time. Extrapolation again isn’t inevitable, but if the entire process of a cycle has been mapped out, it is more likely to continue than one dataset viewed in isolation.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. But without the blessing of hindsight, we find ourselves in situations where we have complete information or incomplete information.