The Global Questions Series: Number 8 – Rationality

Contents

1. Introduction

2. What Is Rationality?

3. Rationality in Geopolitics

4. Rational Expectations Theory

5. How To Reduce The Gap Between States That Cause Conflict?

6. Rationality In Geopolitics Gone Mad

7. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• The time before last in the Global Questions Series, before I discussed the US presidential debate in the last edition, I discussed how mutually assured destruction provides a wall that can’t be breached in geopolitical tensions. We see tensions rise, until one nation pulls back, and tensions fall. If nations are acting rationally, this is expected. But what if they aren’t?

• Rationality is defined as being based on logic, which itself is based on valid principles. However, what was classified as logic centuries ago is now understood to be ludicrous as we grow our knowledge as a collective. How do we know that what we define as valid principles for how the world works today won’t one day be replaced as our knowledge grows?

• In geopolitics, individual actors will have their own principles that they believe they act rationally towards through logical actions. It’s when these individual actors interact with one another that principles can clash. This is the complex matrix of geopolitics. Pull on one string, and countless others shift because of how many players are involved.

• Today, I’ll explore the concept of rationality, and how we can reduce the gaps between seemingly rational nations that cause conflict.

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Introduction

After exploring brinkmanship and mutually assured destruction last time, a linked topic is rationality. If a state isn’t acting rationally, are they limited by the solid wall in potential geopolitical tensions caused by MAD? Before we analyse that, let’s dive into the concept of rationality, and how it applies to geopolitics.