Geopolitics and Markets Review – 26th February 2024

Armenia, or Western Azerbaijan?

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The Border Crisis Continues

3. A Lack of Support For Armenia

4. The Turning Tides

5. Armenia’s Future and Azerbaijan’s Hopes

6. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• Although it appears that the battle between Azerbaijan and Armenia for control of Nagorno-Karabakh is over, the war could only just be beginning. In 2022, we saw Azerbaijan conduct attacks directly over the border into Armenian territory.

• There also exists the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan, which is separated from mainland Azerbaijan by Armenian territory. One aspect of the 2020 ceasefire was that Armenia would guarantee the security of transport links between the enclave and the mainland. Despite this, it's clear that Azerbaijan wants stronger connections to the enclave, so it possesses a land link with its strong ally, Turkey.

• This is occurring at the same time as Armenia is looking rather weak. They relied too heavily on Russian support, which was there until it wasn’t. The Armenians are now scrambling for new support.

• What has occurred thus far in this ongoing border crisis, where is Armenia looking for support, and what are the potential future directions for this? Azerbaijan has referred to Armenia as Western Azerbaijan in the past. Is this its long-term goal?

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Introduction

We’ve previously discussed the deep history that contributed to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In 2023, Azerbaijan’s large offensive against the Armenian-aligned breakaway state of Artsakh led to the region of Nagorno-Karabakh coming back under Azerbaijani control. The Artsakh Defence Army was disarmed, and surrender occurred one day after the offensive began.

It appears that the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is over.

However, in 2022, we saw Azerbaijan conduct attacks directly over the border into Armenian territory. Although the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh is over, this was just one battle.

Photo by Birmingham Museums Trust on Unsplash

Is the war just getting started?

Let’s break down the key events in this border crisis, why Armenia isn’t being supported, and who could potentially step into a supporting role in the future. Finally, we’ll explore the future directions this conflict could head in.