Geopolitics and Markets Review - 19th February 2024
The Present Day: Azerbaijani and Armenian Conflict
Contents
1) Introduction
2) Regional Influence
3) The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
4) The Events of 2022 and 2023
5) Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
The South Caucasus, specifically the region of modern-day Armenia, has seen itself being influenced historically by the Soviets, Persians, and Ottomans. These historic ties give the nations of Iran, Russia, and Turkey interests in the region.
However, in recent years, we’ve seen Azeri aggression towards Armenia often remain unchallenged. The Turks are even supportive of the aggression of Azerbaijan. Today, I’ll discuss the story up to last month, when we saw the dissolution of Artsakh into Azerbaijan, including images demonstrating the geographical changes between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Introduction
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia saw the Armenian victory of 1994 define most of the following decades in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, in the last few years, key events such as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020 and the 2023 Azeri offensive into Artsakh have drastically changed the geography between the two nations. As we discuss the story of the conflict up to today, questions of the future arise. Is this conflict over, or where will it head in the future?
Regional Influence
How do the Russians, Iranians, and Turks all have interests in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?
The Caucasus has been influenced heavily by the Soviets, Ottomans, and Persians throughout history.
The Safavid Dynasty ruled Persia from 1501 to 1736, which saw regions of Eastern Armenia come under Safavid control. In 1639, the Treaty of Zuhab saw the Ottomans take control of regions of Western Armenia. As empires declined, the Safavid Dynasty became a victim of the cycle, and the Ottoman and Russian Empires growing in power limited the power and influence of the Safavid Dynasty. The Persians continued to rule in Eastern Armenia through the Afsharid, Zand, and Qajar Dynasties.
In the early 1800s, Russia had grown further in power and started encroaching into Qajar-led Iran and Ottoman Turkey. A Russian massacre of the Iranian town of Ganja started the Russo-Persian War that occurred between 1804 and 1813. This led to Russian victory, and the Treaty of Gulistan, seeing the Iranians cede territories to Russia, including modern-day Dagestan, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. This upset the Persians, who felt hard done by. The Russo-Persian War of 1826-1828 saw further Iranian losses through the Treaty of Turkmenchay, and Persia had to cede all its territories in the Caucasus, bringing its chapter in the region to an end.
The Ottomans ruled in Western Armenia until their collapse in World War One, in which they committed horrific acts such as the Armenian genocide between 1915 and 1921, and previous massacres in 1894, 1896, and 1909. After the collapse of the Ottomans, Armenia entered its period of Soviet influence.
The Russians then entered their period of influence over Eastern Armenia, lasting from 1828 to 1991 and the collapse of the Soviet Union, as we discussed last week.
Part 1: https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/geopolitics-and-markets-review-5th-1de
Part 2: https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/geopolitics-and-markets-review-12th-b18
Western Armenia came under Russian influence during the period of the Russian Revolution, with the states of the Caucasus forming the Transcaucasian Federation.
This history of Armenia demonstrates why the modern-day Iranians, Turks, and Russians maintain interests in the region and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But now, let's dive into how these nations fit into this present-day story.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
The conflict was never resolved in the eyes of the Azerbaijanis.
On September 27th, 2020, the Azeris launched an assault along the Line of Contact, which was the front line separating Azeri and Armenian forces. Armenia alleged the Azeri assault was supported by the Turks, who provided military support. The Russians, French, and Americans all sought to broker ceasefires, none of which were successful. After the Azeris captured the city of Shusha, a ceasefire was signed. This occurred on November 10th, 2020. The Azeris regained control of 5 cities, 4 towns, 286 villages, and the Azerbaijani-Iran border. Before this conflict, the Azeris rescinded its offer of special status and autonomy to Armenian residents in Nagorno-Karabakh and insisted the population be integrated into Azerbaijan. Their long-term goals were made clear here
After the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, there were border clashes, but no intense fighting, as Russian peacekeepers sought to maintain the ceasefire and hold the Lachin Corridor. The story comes back round to today after the 2023 Azeri offensive of September.
The Events of 2022 and 2023
Before the 2023 assault, the Azeris had enforced a blockade over Artsakh, under the guise of citizens who claimed to be eco-activists. They blocked the Lachin Corridor connecting Armenia to Artsakh and eventually started seizing territory surrounding the corridor. They also installed military checkpoints and blocked alternative routes. Finally, they attacked the necessities of the citizens in Nagorno-Karabakh, limiting access to gas, electricity, and the Internet. It’s a trend that I expect to see rising. We are not in control of our necessities, and if aggressors attack technological infrastructure, the world is viewing any conflict with one eye closed. The internet, as we’ve seen in Gaza, holds those accountable who commit war crimes or crimes against humanity. In the age of information, it is vital for the protection of civilians in any conflicts that arise that the actions of aggressors be held accountable with evidence.
Azerbaijan launched an assault in September 2023 against Artsakh (The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh). One day after this assault, a ceasefire was mediated by Russian peacekeepers, with the disarmament of the Artsakh Defence Army, and the state was fully dissolved on 1st January 2024.
A consequence of this attack and dissolution of Artsakh was the mass flight of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh with many fleeing through the Lachin Corridor and into Armenia. Many have described the attack as the Armenians being subject to ethnic cleansing, genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.
Importantly, this entire ceasefire was out of the hands of the Armenians. The Armenian government came out stating it had no input in the ceasefire agreement.
Concluding Remarks
The Azeris never saw this conflict as resolved, even after the complete Armenian victory in 1994. It took 30 years before the conclusion of this conflict with the dissolution of Artsakh into Azerbaijan.
However, just as this wasn’t finished for the Azeris in 1994, is it finished for the Armenians now? More importantly, now they are seemingly in the driver’s seat in this conflict, are the Azeris finished? The Azeri President Aliyev has referred to Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan”, and it's known that Azerbaijan would like a land bridge to connect to its landlocked region of Nakhchivan. I’ll explore the continued border crisis, the lack of support for Armenia, and why this conflict isn’t yet over.
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Sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Azerbaijani_offensive_in_Nagorno-Karabakh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia%E2%80%93Azerbaijan_border_crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_of_Nagorno-Karabakh_Armenians
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakhchivan_Autonomous_Republic
https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijani-president-doubles-down-on-demand-for-ex-soviet-exclaves-return
https://eurasianet.org/fate-of-ex-soviet-exclaves-uncertain-in-the-wake-of-armenia-azerbaijan-war