Geopolitics and Markets Review – 12th February 2024
The Wars of Today - Azerbaijan and Armenia - Part 2
Contents
Introduction
The Story of Nagorno-Karabakh – Part 2
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War
Effects of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
From 1936 to the present day, Armenia has seen its geography change dramatically, often as a result of territorial conflicts with Azerbaijan.
With multiple genocides in Armenia’s history and the pivot from Soviet influence on its current attempts to pivot more to the West, it’s a vital nation to study in one of the most diverse geopolitical regions on the planet.
Today, we’ll explore how Armenia fared in World War Two, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the rest of the story gets us to 2020 when the tide of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh once again intensified.
Introduction
Last week, I started my deep dive into the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Read Part 1 first if you haven’t already as it sets up many of the topics I’ll discuss today.
https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/geopolitics-and-markets-review-5th-1de
The Story of Nagorno-Karabakh – Part 2
We ended last week’s piece with the end of the Transcaucasian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic in 1936 when the three states of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia became three separate states. Armenia was named the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic.
In World War Two, Armenia participated by sending soldiers to fight under the USSR. This period also saw Armenia and Azerbaijan reach temporary peace, with both Armenia having an Azeri minority and Azerbaijan possessing an Armenian minority. Also as Soviet states, they were under centralized control from the Soviet Union. However, this peace wasn’t to last, with the First Nagorno-Karabakh War occurring in 1988. At this time, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic but still housed an ethnic Armenian majority. The Azerbaijani government had encouraged its population to settle in the region to alter the demographics, which fuelled tensions with the Armenians. Couple this with the rise of nationalism and wishes for greater autonomy in the Soviet Union states during the 1980s and the Armenians wished for a reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh. The breakdown of the Soviet Union and eventual collapse in 1991 led to power vacuums forming that were no longer controlled by Soviet leadership. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War was already unfolding in 1991, but the collapse of the Soviet Union paved the path for escalations between the two newly independent states.
The First Nagorno-Karabakh War
The conflict between the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan unfolded from February 1988 to May 1994. The rest of Armenia backed its ethnic population in Nagorno-Karabakh, while Azerbaijan was backed by Turkey. The Turks backing Azerbaijan arose from ethnic and cultural ties throughout history, and the Azeris had access to the Caspian Sea which interested the Turks from a trade standpoint. Add in that Turkey denies the Armenian Genocide in 1915-1916 where the Ottomans arrested and deported Armenians and sent them on death marches into the Syrian Desert and it's clear where Armenian animosity towards the Turks stems from.
The parliament in Nagorno-Karabakh voted in favour of reunification with Armenia and in a referendum, 99.89% voted in favour of independence from Azerbaijan. This period of conflict also saw Armenia declare sovereignty within the Soviet Union, which led to Armenia asserting its right to self-determination. These processes descended into violence and led to ethnic cleansing on both sides.
The fighting intensified in 1992 when the Turks got involved. They blockaded trade into Armenia and sent troops to fight with the Azerbaijanis. 1993 saw the Armenians capture seven districts outside Nagorno-Karabakh, before finally controlling the entire enclave at the end of the war in 1994. Importantly, the Armenians also controlled the Lachin Corridor, which is the mountainous territory linking mainland Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire in May 1994.
Effects of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War
After the war, both Azerbaijan and Turkey closed their borders with Armenia and imposed a blockade, mainly targeting and affecting the Armenian economy. However, if intended to damage the Armenian economy, it moved in conjunction with the Azerbaijani economy in terms of GDP per Capita throughout the entire decade of the 1990s.
Although the conflict had ended in a ceasefire in 1994, it never really ended.
Under the Presidency of Ter-Petrosyan from 1991-1998, little progress was made in a settlement with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Ter-Petrosyan did agree to a plan with Azerbaijan that proposed a step-by-step settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but it postponed any agreement on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the main reason the fighting was occurring. The deal involved returning most Armenian-occupied enclaves to Azerbaijan in return for a lifting of the blockades imposed on Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Before the deal could occur, Ter-Petrosyan’s ministers forced his resignation.
Kocharyan was President between 1998 and 2008. Kocharyan started his leadership by rejecting the 1997 OSCE Minsk Group Peace Plan. The group was chaired by Russia, the United States, and France, with the aim of finding a solution to the conflict over Karabakh. The 1997 Step-by-Step option involved the following policies:
Nagorno-Karabakh returned to Azerbaijan, except for the Lachin Corridor.
Deployment of Peacekeepers.
Security Guarantees for Armenians In Nagorno-Karabakh
Final Determination of Karabakh’s Legal Status To Come Later
However, secret negotiations between Kocharyan and Azeri President Aliyev were occurring in the background. In 1999, they spoke and agreed on a land swap giving Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia in exchange for a strip of land connecting Azerbaijan to the enclave of Nakhichvan. This oral deal never progressed however after a 1999 Armenian Parliament shooting led to Kocharyan no longer supporting the peace deal.
Further negotiations in 2001, called the Key West Negotiations, were also rejected after initially being agreed to by President Aliyev of Azerbaijan.
Talks continued sporadically during the Kocharyan Presidency, most notably with the 2007 Madrid Document. This also included the proposed policy of determining the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the future, essentially delaying the problem until a future date.
In 2008, Kocharyan was replaced as President by Serzh Sargsyan. His Presidency saw improvements made in Armenian relations with Turkey. Both sides signed two protocols, one aiming to normalize relations and the other to reopen their shared border, closed since 1993 during the First Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. Importantly, the protocol outlined a joint commission to examine the history of the 1915 Armenian Genocide. Although these protocols were signed, they were never ratified.
The Sargsyan Presidency saw talks in 2011 at the Kazan Summit, rejected by Azerbaijani President Aliyev, and the 2015 Lavrov Plan was rejected by Armenia in October 2016.
2016 saw renewed conflict between the two sides, also known as the Four-Day War, between April 1st and April 5th. The conflict saw the Artsakh Defence Army clash with the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. Both sides accuse the other of initiating this conflict. The conflict reached a ceasefire on April 5th in Moscow, but Azerbaijan claimed 8-20km² of land. The quoted reason for Azerbaijani aggression was a strong military buildup over several years, with Azerbaijan spending 5.46% of GDP on military spending in 2015, which was a decade high during the 2010s. Armenia’s 4.24% of GDP spent on military spending was only beaten by 2019’s 4.79% and 2020’s 4.98% when considering the period of the 2010s only.
Armenia had seen themselves in the driver’s seat since the First Nagorno-Karabakh War led to them controlling the entire enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and many surrounding enclaves claimed by Azerbaijan. This gave Azerbaijan a small victory. The Azeri’s military spending was consistently above that of Armenia as a percentage of GDP, and support from the Turks will have aided Azerbaijan.
In 2018, Armenia went through its Velvet Revolution, as President Sargsyan had previously amended the constitution in 2015 to remove term limits and shift the country from a presidential system to a parliamentary system. As a result, Sargsyan competed for the Prime Minister’s post, which he won, even though he had already served two terms as President. When military forces started their involvement in the protests a few days later, Sargsyan announced his resignation and released the leader of the opposition, Nikol Pashinyan from solitary confinement.
Pashinyan eventually went on to become the next Prime Minister of Armenia. After the constitutional reforms made previously by Sargsyan, most of the power in Armenia now resides with the Prime Minister. A man named Armen Sarkissian was elected President of Armenia in March 2018 but resigned in 2022 stating that the constitution doesn’t give the President enough power to influence decisions.
The biggest event of Pashinyan’s Premiership has been the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020, which we’ll start next week by discussing.
Concluding Remarks
As I started writing this short history of Armenia and its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, I detailed the many powers with connections to this conflict. Of course, Azerbaijan and Armenia are directly involved, but the territory also has ties to Russia, Turkey, and Iran. The geopolitical relationships between these three nations are of vital importance in the Caucasus. Next week, I’ll catch us up to the present day, before exploring these key relations and how they affect alliances and tensions in the Caucasus in the present day.
Other News
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amiradbollahian Arrives In Beirut
Georgian Security Services Intercepted Cargo With Explosives On Border With Russia
Jordanian Foreign Minister and French Counterpart Stress Rejection of Displacement of Palestinians
Biden: Attacks On Syria and Iraq Aimed At Deterring IRGC and Its Militias
Netanyahu Won’t Accept Hamas Demands For Hostage Release: Ceasefire and Withdrawal From Gaza
Zelenskyy Signs Decree To Separate Drone and Robotic Branch of Ukrainian Army
Estonia’s Rise From Former Soviet Vassal State To One of the Freest Nations On Earth
Trump Says He Would “Encourage” Russia To Attack “Delinquent” NATO Members
Dutch Court Orders Netherlands To Stop Export of F-35 Parts To Israel
Germany To Spend €16B To Build Four Major Natural Gas Plants
UK’s Jet Fusion Reactor Sets Record For Energy Output, Reaching 69Mj of Output For 5.2 Seconds
“Disenfranchised” Millennials Feel “Locked Out” Of The Housing Market
US Buys More From Mexico Than China For First Time In Two Decades
Yellen Says Commercial Real Estate Losses May Leave Banks “Quite Stressed”
Thanks for reading! If you want more then subscribe on Substack for these posts directly to your email inbox. I research history, geopolitics, and financial markets to understand the world and the people around us. If any of my work helps you be more prepared and ease your mind, that’s great. If you like what you read please share with others.
Key Links
The Geopolitics Explained Podcast
If you want to see daily updates and discover other newsletters that suit you, download the Substack App.
You can become a paid subscriber to support my work. There are long-form monthly articles in my global questions series exclusively for paid subscribers. Read Geopolitics Explained for 20p per day or start a free trial below to find out if my work is for you! I appreciate your support!
Sources