Iran and The Snapback Mechanism
How Iran’s Nuclear Ambiguity and the E3 Snapback Will Shape the Next Middle East Crisis
Contents
Introduction
The E3 and The Snapback Mechanism
Scenarios Looking Forward
The Israeli Wildcard
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
This month brings multiple turning points: the UN Snapback Mechanism deadline on Iran, clashes between the U.S. and Venezuela, and China showcasing its military strength. Meanwhile, Trump is pushing for a Gaza ceasefire, while some nations move toward recognising a Palestinian state.
The UK, France, and Germany (E3) triggered the process after Iran refused to resume U.S. talks, allow UN inspections, or account for 400kg of enriched uranium. Once the 30-day countdown began, sanctions became inevitable unless Iran strikes a deal.
In the event of no deal, Tehran faces crippling sanctions that could ban trade with all UN members. It can either double down and pursue nuclear weapons or backtrack by cooperating with inspectors and restarting negotiations. Imperfect information here benefits Iran, since no one knows how far its nuclear program has advanced. They would like to maintain this environment of imperfect information if possible, but the clock is ticking.
Israel sees a nuclear Iran as an existential threat. With the 12-day war, Israel’s goals were limiting Iran’s nuclear program, pushing for regime change, and keeping Netanyahu in power. Only the latter of the three succeeded. If Gaza calms or Iran escalates, Israel’s focus may quickly shift back to Iran, risking renewed conflict.
Expect rising tensions if sanctions are imposed, Iran’s response to economic pressure, and potential escalation between Israel and Iran. The stage is set for another round in this unresolved struggle.
Introduction
September is setting itself up to be a huge month in geopolitics.
I’ll start today by discussing the Snapback Mechanism and Iran. Over the coming weeks, I’ll delve into the other issues mentioned above. If they sound of interest to you, subscribe to make sure these posts are sent directly to your email inbox.
For today, let’s dive into Iran and the Snapback Mechanism.
The E3 and The Snapback Mechanism
Since the Israel-Iran conflict ended in June, there have been discussions about the potential implementation of the Snapback Mechanism.
After the 12-day War between Israel and Iran, I released a post and a podcast episode detailing scenarios that could pan out in the Middle East. One such scenario I thought highly probable was the implementation of the snapback mechanism.
Before diving into more recent details, it’s worth exploring what the snapback mechanism is. If activated, the snapback mechanism will see UN sanctions reimposed on Iran. These sanctions would involve an arms embargo and restrictions on nuclear-related trade. Asset freezes and sanctions on individuals would also occur if the mechanism were activated. All UN members would be obligated to do this. The United States has also threatened secondary sanctions against any countries that don’t.
The nations that had the option to activate the snapback mechanism are signatories to the JCPOA. This is the nuclear deal to limit the Iranian nuclear program and to allow nuclear inspections into Iran. In return, Iran received sanctions relief. This deal was adopted on 18th October 2015.
The signatories are China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. The United States withdrew in 2018 under Donald Trump, who was seeking a better deal. In the aftermath of his withdrawal, he imposed aggressive sanctions on Iran. A better deal didn’t emerge, and here we are today.
So, what are the key characteristics of this situation we find ourselves in today?
Firstly, the JCPOA was set to expire in October 2025. Any nation that wanted to activate the snapback mechanism had to before this date. I stated at the end of June that the UK, France, and Germany would be the signatories to look at for any implementation of the snapback mechanism. This is what occurred.
Back in July, the E3 offered to delay the implementation of the snapback mechanism if Iran met three conditions:
Resuming Negotiations With The United States
Allowing UN Inspectors To Access Its Nuclear Sites
Accounting For Over 400kg Of Highly Enriched Uranium
Tehran rejected this proposal, and so the 30-day countdown to the snapback mechanism was implemented. It’s worth noting that this process cannot be vetoed by the UN Security Council members.
If no Council member submits a draft to continue sanctions relief within the first 10 days of this process, they lose this option. This includes Russia and China, which didn’t pursue this avenue. Since this period has now passed, a deal with Iran is the only way this process can be reversed.
The Russians and Chinese did wish to extend the JCPOA for six months until 18th April 2026. But in this process of the E3 implementing the snapback mechanism, they haven’t stood firm. Even some Iranian officials stated that they can’t trust anybody, including the Russians and the Chinese. It is also true that during the 12-day war with Israel, both the Russians and the Chinese stood back and watched. In this current situation, the Iranians are likely alone.
From here, do we find a deal negotiated between the E3 and Iran, or will the snapback mechanism be imposed on Iran?
Scenarios Looking Forward
The Iranians have stood firm thus far, stating a “harsh response” if sanctions are reinstated. With no veto now able to occur, the only options are that the sanctions are implemented, or Iran makes a deal.
I’ll start with the no-deal scenario. As I discussed in the aftermath of the 12-day Israel-Iran war, has Iran been forced down a path where it has to pursue a nuclear weapon? We don’t know where the 400kg of 60%+ enriched uranium is. Many world leaders, including Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, have openly stated that its location is unknown and it wasn’t destroyed in the U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. After the conflict, Iran was clearly damaged, but the specifics were overstated. The New York Times stated the Iranian nuclear program was only set back “a few months”.
A few months have now passed, and the Iranians now have the power of imperfect information. Their adversaries don’t know where Iran is in the process towards a nuclear weapon. It could have made no progress or taken massive strides. This benefits the Iranians.
Iran has also threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response to the snapback mechanism being triggered. Iran ratified the NPT in 1970 and committed to not developing nuclear weapons. If this occurred, it would signify that Iran is in pursuit of the no-deal scenario.
There is a slim chance of the alternative scenario of a diplomatic solution here. The meetings between the Iranians and the E3 have made little progress. But Iran’s leadership will want to avoid sanctions, especially of this severity. The Iranians are running low on drinking water, and their sales of crude oil to China are one of their largest incomes.
With this in mind, the Iranians either double down, pursue a nuclear weapon, and likely restart the conflict with the Israelis. Or, they back down. Backing down would see them allow inspectors to return to Iran. They would also return to negotiations that would likely see enriched uranium limited to 3.67%, and they would reveal the status of the 400+kg of enriched uranium. However, at one point, the US changed its position and demanded Iran give up its entire nuclear programme. The Iranians rejected this outright and would continue to do so. Especially during an energy crisis, any nuclear energy would be of vital importance to Iran. So much so that the Russians announced cooperation with Iran to construct 8 nuclear power plants over the next decade. Also, as a signatory of the NPT, Iran is entitled to enrich uranium for civilian sectors such as energy and research.
The Iranians, back in June, did state they had plans for a new nuclear enrichment facility. From what I can find, no new information has emerged on this front. Once again, the lack of clarity in this situation is one of the only cards that the Iranians possess. As a result of this, they will likely remain vague.
In considering the deal or no-deal choice faced by the Iranians, there exists another geopolitical actor to consider. A wildcard in this entire situation is the looming geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel.
The Israeli Wildcard
When the 12-day war sparked, the Israelis had three goals:
Limit Iranian Nuclear Capabilities
Regime Change
Netanyahu Remaining In Power Despite His Corruption Trial and Pressure From Israel’s Far Right, Who Hold Up His Coalition
They achieved the third goal of keeping Netanyahu in power, but it’s unclear how limited Iran’s nuclear capabilities are today due to the environment of imperfect information. The Israelis have proven to be ingrained within Iranian society, and so could know more than publicly available knowledge. Hundreds of people have been arrested since the 12-day war, with expected ties to Israeli intelligence.
As for the goal of regime change, Netanyahu stated this outright during the war. He said if he believed the Iranian regime could fall, he would have continued the attacks. Defence Minister Katz reiterated this.
Today, Iran’s domestic situation is more vulnerable, with a fuel crisis and a lack of access to basic necessities. I’m not stating that an internal Iranian collapse is likely, but it is more likely than back in June.
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is existential for Israel and would likely lead to a restart in the conflict if Iran pursued the “no deal” strategy.
The question then becomes whether the United States would once again be dragged in by the Israelis. The Trump Administration is turning a blind eye while Israel bombs Southern Lebanon and remains in Southern Syrian territory.
The 12-day war was costing Israel a lot of money, and Israel suffered damage. That’s why we saw the geopolitical theatre that ended that chapter of the conflict. It gave everybody an off-ramp in which they all claimed victory.
But the elephant in the room this time is the imperfect information advantage that Iran possesses. For now, I believe the Israeli waiting game continues until the conditions of the current state of play are revealed in clearer detail. If clearer details emerge, we could see the existential threat between the Iranians and the Israelis once again rise to the surface.
Concluding Remarks
I stated back in June that I saw the following scenario as my base case:
My current base case is that no deal is signed, Iran accelerates its nuclear ambitions, as we are already seeing via the parliamentary vote suspending cooperation with the IAEA. But this will occur over a period of a few months, because both Iran and Israel want to recover.
Israel has already returned to its other wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and will continue to do so. Trump will hope for a larger Abraham Accords deal, but Netanyahu needs a war to not have to face his corruption trial.
Eventually, news of Iran’s nuclear progress will once again enter the news flow. Israel can’t allow Iran to have nuclear weapons because it sees this as existential. Iran needs nuclear weapons to act as a deterrent for the survival of the regime. This ensures the war will restart in the future because they can’t exist simultaneously.
Next time, the goals will be similar. Israel will aim to crush Iran’s nuclear industry, but with the U.S. arsenal of bunker buster bombs heavily depleted, it could struggle to do this. This would also once again involve the United States directly, but if Iran’s nuclear ambitions were visibly advancing, the United States would likely stand by the side of the Israelis without any goading next time. There is also the potential for Iran’s secret new enrichment facility, and the fact that the IAEA doesn’t know where Iran’s enriched uranium is supports this.
I maintain this stance, with us currently at the point where Iran’s nuclear industry is once again entering the news flow.
Looking forward, there are four such aspects of this situation that I would keep an eye out for:
The Implementation of UN Sanctions
Iran’s Response To This
Spiking Tensions Between Israel and Iran
Iran Seeking To Maintain The Information Advantage Surrounding Its Nuclear Industry
In the scenario of a deal, these aspects fade in likelihood. But, based on current rhetoric, the no-deal scenario seems more likely. This entire process is on a ticking clock.
I was also going to discuss Venezuela, the Xi-Putin-Kim meeting, and updates in Gaza today. But these will all be separate posts over the coming weeks, so I can dive into greater detail. Keep an eye out for those if they take your interest.
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