Geopolitics Review Extra - 26th June 2025
What Comes Next In The Middle East?
Contents
Introduction
The Days Since The Ceasefire
What Has Truly Changed
Where Do We Go From Here - Iran’s Nuclear Industry
Where Do We Go From Here - The Iran-Israeli War
Where Do We Go From Here - The Israelis’ Wider Plans
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
We are seeing the ceasefire remain between Israel and Iran after two days. However, in the last few weeks, we have seen some dramatic changes in this conflict between Israel and Iran. These changes make it highly likely that in the future, we will see this conflict spark once again.
The Israelis see Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons as an existential issue. After the Israeli and American attacks, Iran could see that they have no choice but to pursue a nuclear weapon to act as a form of deterrent against attack. Are Israel and Iran locked in a trap, in which they are inevitably destined to scrap once again?
Currently, though, both Israel and Iran are pausing to lick their wounds. How will Iran spend this time, specifically when it comes to their nuclear industry? Also, what are the Israelis’ wider plans? Will we see Israel once again focus on the Gaza Strip? There is a lot still up in the air as we move forward, and there are many scenarios that could unfold. Let’s delve into these scenarios today.
Introduction
Before the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran, and even before the United States launched an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities last Sunday, I had written a post detailing potential scenarios that could unfold in this Israeli-Iran war.
In light of the US attack, despite seemingly being an escalation, it was a batch of geopolitical theatre, and we “de-escalated” into the environment we find ourselves in today. However, in assessing the characteristics of this current truce, fragile and tense would be two words I’d use to describe it.
So, there are still scenarios to assess as we move forward. What has truly changed as a result of this recent conflict? Does this environment make it inevitable that Israel and Iran will clash once again? And if this does occur, where would the United States fall into the picture? Finally, as we move forward, what will happen to Iran’s nuclear industry? Let’s dive in.
The Days Since The Ceasefire
Right up to the time of the ceasefire, Israel and Iran were launching strikes at each other. The ceasefire was brokered by the United States and Qatar at 22:00 GMT on Monday. Just after 5:00 GMT on Tuesday, Trump said the ceasefire was in effect, and at 6:00 GMT on Tuesday, Israel said it had agreed to the ceasefire.
For the reasons behind why this ceasefire arrived when it did as part of this recent batch of geopolitical theatre, I wrote about this on Monday:
Two hours later, the IDF said Iran had broken the ceasefire by firing missiles at Israel. Iran denied this. In response, Israel hit a radar array near Tehran. Trump got angry, dropped an F-bomb on live TV, and had a call with Netanyahu. He also screamed into the void on Truth Social. These strategies combined seemingly did the trick, and the fragile ceasefire has held since.
Since then, we’ve seen multiple events unfold over the last few days that indicate this conflict is over for now:
Iranian airspace reopened, indicating the ceasefire is expected to hold, at least for now.
Israel reopened the Leviathan Gas Field, indicating they also expect the ceasefire to hold.
Citizens have been celebrating in the streets of Tehran, and they have been joined by Iranian officials.
Khamenei released a video speech, claiming Iranian victory.
So, the ceasefire has held thus far, and Trump is painting this as a huge success. However, what has truly changed as a result of the last few weeks?
What Has Truly Changed?
The biggest question, as I discussed on Monday, is where is Iran’s uranium? Most reports state that this is 400kg of 60% enriched uranium, and based on this recent conflict, it’s unlikely to show up anytime soon. The Iranians have previously stated that they have a new nuclear enrichment facility, and that nobody knows where it is. Could the enriched uranium already have been moved to an unknown facility?
Secondly, these attacks impacted Iran’s nuclear industry, but by how much? The New York Times has stated that Iran’s nuclear program was only set back “a few months”, and that the US bombs didn’t collapse the underground nuclear facilities, namely at Fordow. The head of the IAEA, Grossi, stated that centrifuges at Fordow are no longer operational, and that the damage to these facilities is “serious”. However, as I said on Monday, nobody can assess the true extent of the damage until people get inside, so the best we can do is to look for signs in the future that the Iranian nuclear industry is once again operational. In the coming weeks and months, we have to keep an eye out for satellite imagery suggesting that the Iranians could be working to dig out the facilities, or repair the power to them, especially at Fordow. In fact, this has already been seen at Natanz on June 24th.
There is also the fact that earlier today, the Iranian parliament passed a vote to stop cooperation with the IAEA. It is worth noting that the Iranian parliament also passed a vote to block the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict with Israel and the United States, but they didn’t commit to this because it would also hurt their own exports coming out of the Persian Gulf.
In response to Iran’s parliamentary vote, the IAEA has stated that they haven’t received an official notification from the Iranians suspending cooperation, but the Iranian parliamentary speaker has reportedly informed them of a suspension of cooperation. More will be revealed in the coming days when the vote reaches the Council of Guardians, but there is the potential that this parliamentary vote could be as symbolic as the Strait of Hormuz vote. However, if this isn’t the case, a suspension of cooperation with the IAEA would support Iranian rhetoric that they plan to immediately address the damage to their nuclear industry and to once again begin nuclear operations.
So, from what I can tell, the only things that have changed are that Iran is more likely than ever to expand its nuclear ambitions, and that both sides are weakened, so they needed a rest. However, the underlying reasons why both the Israelis and the Iranians continue to fight with each other remain.
Both the Israelis and the Iranians are claiming victory. Netanyahu remains in power, having survived a vote of no confidence, and he succeeded in dragging the United States into direct conflict with Iran. He wasn’t going to end the war himself because, to maintain his coalition, he wasn’t incentivised to. As it turns out, he didn’t have to risk his own career because Trump joined the war and opened the geopolitical theatre curtains.
Trump is proclaiming that Iran’s nuclear industry is in tatters, and so Netanyahu has achieved his first goal of damaging Iran’s nuclear industry (whether in fiction or reality) and his second goal of remaining in power. The IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, also says Israeli commando forces were on the ground within Iran. We know Mossad has infiltrated Iran due to the drone launches from within Iran on the first day of this recent conflict. It is worth noting that the IDF refused to clarify the comments made by Zamir, but this would be a victory for the Israelis.
As for the Iranians, they are claiming Israel was on the verge of collapse as a result of the war. Residents have gathered in the streets of Tehran in support of the military, and public events have been organised, such as a concert by the Tehran Symphony Orchestra.
Trump also claims victory. He said the Iranian nuclear facilities were obliterated, but a leaked report stated they were only set back by a maximum of “a few months”. As a result of nobody believing him, Trump has sent his administration out today to reinforce how much damage was done to these Iranian facilities, and the Israelis have also followed suit. He even had the Pentagon host a press conference providing more details behind the attack on Iran, and he said on Truth Social that the pilots were sad because nobody believed that they had caused severe damage. He also stated that the trucks outside Fordow a few days before the attack were concrete workers attempting to protect the facility. None of this matters if Iran emptied Fordow months ago, as they have stated previously.
So, everybody is painting this as a victory with their positive rhetoric. But, in reality, we are in a dramatically worse situation than we were before Israel launched its attacks on June 13th. As I wrote on Monday, by launching this attack, the Israelis and the Americans could have convinced Iran to do the one thing they didn’t want them to do, and that’s rush towards a nuclear weapon.
Where Do We Go From Here - Iran’s Nuclear Industry
As a result of recent events, I believe the likelihood of some scenarios has dramatically shifted. Where could we see Iran’s nuclear industry head from here?
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