Geopolitics Review Extra - 22nd May 2025
The Donald Diaries: Grand Strategy In A New Geopolitical Age
Contents
Introduction
The Vision of Stephen Miran
The Mar-A-Lago Accord
The Pursuit of America-First
Bessent Enters Stage Right
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Everything that I’ve discussed in this entire series on Donald Trump has built to this post. When Trump’s policies he has pursued in his second term are viewed individually, they seem erratic. But when brought together in discussing the Mar-A-Lago Accord, we can see some of his decisions with more clarity.
However, for as much sense as some pursuits make, there are already some ways that Trump’s plan has been derailed. Did those involved in the research prior to the plan, such as Zoltan Poszar and Stephen Miran, expect a decrease in the value of the dollar? Also, did they expect that Trump would almost lose the support of Scott Bessent by chaotically enacting 245% tariffs on China?
Regardless of these bumps in the road, what is the overall plan? More importantly, is it working, and what will be the long-term implications of such a huge change to our global system?
Introduction
On Monday, I delved into three important documents that have shaped Trump’s first few months in office to varying degrees. These are Project 2025, Schedule F, and Agenda 47. They have each played a role in Trump’s policy pursuits in a wide range of areas. But today marks the time when we have to zoom out. In the short term, Trump is rapidly moving forward, especially with positive progress being made towards his “Big Beautiful Bill” and the GENIUS Act this week. But, when history looks back with hindsight, what will be the biggest takeaways from Trump’s second term? The Mar-A-Lago Accord could be one of Trump’s biggest marks on our world. So, what could the Mar-A-Lago Accord look like, and where will it take us in the long term?
The Vision of Stephen Miran
Before exploring the potential impacts of such a deal, let’s break down the ideas behind Trump’s pursuit of change in the economic and trade spheres.
If we flash back to November 2024, Stephen Miran, formerly of Hudson Bay Capital, published a paper called “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System”. He now serves as Trump’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. This paper likely played a role in him getting a job in the Trump Administration, and now that he has Trump’s ear, what is he going to be whispering into it?
Miran opens by referring to Trump as a man in pursuit of a fair global trading system, and that he has held these beliefs for decades. Way back in the 1980s, Trump proposed tariffs and repayments towards defence as potential political policies, and he has stuck to his guns, pursuing both in his second term. Whether the global trade system is unfair to the United States or everybody else is down to interpretation.
Miran then states that this unfair trading system is a global injustice. It is an effect of the dollar and its persistent overvaluation. It is true that during times of panic or crisis, the dollar is flooded into, which boosts its value versus other currencies in our floating rate currency system that operates on supply and demand. In a concept I mentioned a few weeks ago, this demand for dollars is inelastic. This means that when prices change, consumers’ habits remain the same. But as a global reserve currency, this is expected, and unless the world of global trade becomes more open to closing trade in alternative currencies, it will remain as such.
Or will it?
China has also been in pursuit of a fairer global system of trade for years, with many BRICS nations and Middle Eastern countries signing up for their system in recent years. These countries trade in their own currencies, and can then swap these currencies for Gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange. But this is occurring quietly in the background. It hasn’t become a mainstream narrative yet. It also doesn’t occur too often, because if a nation possesses reserves of Indian Rupee, unless they swap it for Gold, they have to trade with India to get rid of them. This is one benefit of a global reserve currency; it avoids this issue. As I discussed in my post on financial markets a few weeks ago, this rising global financial system is one such tailwind that has seen the price of Gold skyrocket in the last few years.
Although this Chinese-led system has existed for years, Trump’s pursuit of reforming global trade since he re-entered the Oval Office in January has seen this issue rise into the mainstream. We’ve seen tariffs implemented as a negotiating tool, which Miran discusses in detail, especially in the context of the U.S. tax system. He then explores currency policy to correct the undervalued nature of global currencies. Remember, cheaper currencies encourage exports. Finally, Miran explores the financial market implications of these potential policy decisions.
However, this inspiration for change doesn’t come from Miran alone. Enter the Mar-A-Lago Accord.
The Mar-A-Lago Accord
In June 2024, former Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Poszar coined the phrase, the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”. The idea was that the United States could pursue other nations accepting a weaker dollar and lower interest rates on their treasury investments, while also seeing their currencies rise in value against the dollar. In return for this would come protection under the U.S. security umbrella.
Back at home, Trump believes that a strong dollar, not automation, the exportation of cheap labour, or the rise of the services sector, has led to negative impacts on U.S. manufacturing. Since local manufacturing is uncompetitive, the United States has to import more. This leaves them dependent on other nations and increases the trade deficit. I’ve discussed the impact of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs if they do return below, but the equation working to eliminate the trade deficit with every nation is thus explained by this idea.
The deficits and debts are further exemplified in the military industry by the U.S. role as global policeman. Hence, the aim here is that a cheaper dollar will incentivise exports, disincentivise imports, rekindle domestic manufacturing, and lead to favourable deals with other nations that will lead to payment for inclusion in the U.S. security umbrella. On the manufacturing issue, do note that in previous tariff occurrences throughout history, providing a boost to manufacturing has occurred in some sectors. However, it has never been tested on such a scale, and as the long-term historical trends tell us, manufacturing continues to decline regardless of tariffs events in history. They might have short-term impacts, but long-term change isn’t seen.
Although tariffs could bring in additional revenues and lead to negotiation, there still exist risks to the United States, especially in interconnected industries such as semiconductors. Over 600 companies are necessary to get from start to finish in the semiconductor supply chain. As a vital industry to technology and military development, tariffs here risk hurting the United States more than helping.
However, it’s not only the United States that risks growing pains. Any nation that doesn’t agree to such changes risks being left out in the cold. And so, although these changes will dramatically affect the rest of the world as the United States wishes to share the burden of trade and security, we have to remember that this is all for “America First”.
The Pursuit of America-First
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