Geopolitics Review - 9th June 2025
A New American Society
Contents
Introduction
Trump On The Attack
An American Society Shift
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Trump's rapid-fire strategies have been a clear indication of him being on the attack in the pursuit of change. If we ask ourselves some important questions, namely who he’s attacking and why, we can garner some conclusions and potential future directions.
Back in August last year, I delved into the demographics in the United States. Namely, I explored the 2016 and 2020 elections, both of which Trump was a part of. From this analysis, it made it much easier to see Trump’s typical voter. When we consider the direction of Trump’s attacks, many come against those who wouldn’t typically vote for him.
We can also explore the end goal of Trump’s attacks. He wants deep change in the United States of America. He wants to secure greater power and more control. Many writers have discussed Trump and his Machiavellian pursuits in the past. When we focus on his areas of attack, this becomes clearer than ever. So, where will this take us in the near future?
Introduction
As I get closer to the end of this series on Donald Trump, it’s time to assess what effects Trump has had on American society. He clearly has a passionate voter base, and it’s worth considering, with Trump’s many changes, will they still feel the same way? Also, is Trump attacking those who don’t typically vote for him? Finally, I’ll briefly touch on the Trump-Musk spat. Why has this fallout, which some saw as inevitable, occurred now? And where will we go from here?
Trump On The Attack
Since reentering the Oval Office, it’s clear to see that Trump has been on the attack. On the surface, it may seem like Trump is attacking without structure. However, there is reasoning behind his directions of attack.
Last year, in the lead-up to the November U.S. election, I wrote a post exploring voting demographics in the United States.
I compared voting percentages for the 2016 and 2020 elections, both of which included Trump. It was useful to assess the changes between the two elections, but more importantly, it created a clear profile of Trump’s typical voter. This profile was a white, uneducated, religious, older, rural male. Many of Trump’s attacks have been directed at the opposite of each of these characteristics. If Trump maintains his voter share amongst his typical voter background, but his attacks lead to his atypical voters leaving the United States due to declining quality of life or political uncertainty, then he further secures his control over American society. Let’s explore how he has been attacking those who don’t vote for him.
Firstly, let’s start with ICE and deportations. In manufacturing industries, labour has typically been exported to nations with cheaper labour. With Trump’s pursuit of reshoring, he wants to boost manufacturing jobs in the United States. I’ve discussed before how automation heavily makes up the manufacturing industry today, and if Trump hopes to boost American jobs through his deportations and a boost to U.S. manufacturing, he might find himself in a fistfight with the machines that lead manufacturing lines today.
But he will also have riots on his hands, as we’ve seen in California in the past week. The Supreme Court has also ruled against many of these deportations, but the Trump administration has ignored them, sending many to El Salvadoran prisons. Trump has allowed ICE to raid schools, hospitals, and religious buildings and issued the controversial “Alien Enemies Act”. Over 37,000 people were deported during Trump’s first month, and his efforts here are persistent. Is all of this an effort to increase Trump’s voter share?
Secondly, Trump has been on the attack against education. The Education Department, Harvard, and Columbia have been key targets. An executive order directed Education Department Secretary Linda McMahon to dismantle the department. Importantly, the department upholds educational fairness for children of all races, religions, and sexual orientations. With this dismantling, students will be less protected.
He has threatened to redirect $3B in Harvard research funding to vocational schools, another effort to reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing, while also suspending visas for foreign students. Harvard has also been accused of financial links to China and antisemitism on campus via protests against the war in Gaza.
Columbia had its accreditation threatened due to “deliberate indifference” towards the harassment of Jewish students, and $400M in federal grants and contracts have been cancelled. The Trump administration went after Mohsen Mahdawi and Mahmoud Khalil, Palestinian students at Columbia who participated in protests. A request to temporarily stop Mahmoud Khalil’s deportation was denied by a district judge, and Mohsen Mahdawi was arrested in April in what he believed would be a citizenship interview.
Even if these rulings are challenged, would students from abroad want to learn in such a volatile, uncertain environment? Would Americans want to learn in such a place where their school can be upended overnight? Especially when their futures are under the whims of Trump and his aggressive policy. Returning to Trump’s typical voter, the highest proportion of Trump’s voters are high-school educated or lower. Is this another attempt by Trump to increase his voter share?
Project 2025 and Trump himself are known to be big on the role of religion in everyday American life. At the beginning of May, Trump established the Religious Liberty Commission, aiming to promote religious freedom in the United States. He also created the “Task Force to Eradicate Anti-Christian Bias” at the Department of Justice. The aim would be to end the unlawful targeting of Christians. Again, in exploring the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump received a larger number of votes from religious Christians when compared to non-religious atheists.
What has Trump done for his older voters? And his rural voters? Is it here where Trump has actually caused some damage to his voter share? Tariffs and deportations are hurting agriculture, although he does want to increase exports of American foodstuffs. But, with all their additives, who wants U.S. food?
Those of rural backgrounds typically have a lower GDP per capita than those of urban backgrounds. Trump has pursued strategies to support them, including no tax on earnings from overtime work, social security, or TIPS. This is likely because he recognises that inflationary spikes could be seen in some industries due to his tariffs. However, he is also hurting those of lower income. His tax policy will see those who earn less than $51,000 per year actually pay more after-income tax. He has also cut many safety nets for low-income citizens as a part of his “Big Beautiful Bill”. Overall, there are more negatives than positives here.
As for older generations, the economy is a big issue for them. They typically want certainty that they will receive pension payments when they need them, and that they can maintain their savings. They were likely rather unhappy when stock market volatility saw the S&P 500 drop, but we’re back above 6000 now. But, with older voters typically seen as more likely to maintain their voting patterns, this could be an area where Trump maintains voter support, as long as the payments keep coming.
Finally, the fact that Trump, whose character towards women has been disgusting for decades, is so outspoken and persistent on his abortion policy is criminal. But again, it’s all part of his attacking strategy. Trump has also attacked transgender people for years, and he has made many anti-LGBTQ moves since his inauguration.
Over the next four years, if this wide-ranging area of attack is maintained, it’s going to lead to dramatic changes in American society. The evidence of which is already clear to see. But, what changes will this lead to, and apart from maintaining votes, what is the grand reason behind these assaults?
An American Society Shift
From these areas of discussion above, not all are bad. But the direction of efforts from the Trump administration does follow a clear pattern. He is making moves in areas of society where he didn’t receive votes.
His rapid-fire, headline-driving policy decisions are indicative of a strategy in which Trump seeks to strike quickly against his “enemies”. Then, they have no time to regain their balance. They’re stunned, and when they finally find themselves on steady ground, it’s too late. One such enemy of Trump is the “deep state”. Those existing at the top of American politics heavily benefit from the system. Nancy Pelosi’s stock tracker is all the indication needed that the system is built to benefit those at the top. They don’t want systemic change, and it’s here where Trump faces one of his biggest fights. We’ve seen this with his attempts to gut American institutions. Again, not all of the fights here are bad, but those attacks that hurt everyday people like me and you certainly are bad.
Trump recognises that change has to occur, but the difficulty of societal change is recognised. Together, this leads to Trump’s strategy of attacking his “enemies” within America, with the overarching aim of restructuring society and overseeing fundamental change. His Make America Great Again strategy is the pursuit of such change. People dislike change, and so this isn’t typically well received. Hence, Trump attacks those who are bound to disagree with him, while trying to keep his voter base on board with preferential treatment. If this doesn’t work, and he alienates his voter base, the quick decisions can cause unpleasantness. But he can then attempt to address wounds that have formed over the time he has remaining in his term. Or, this would at least be the idea behind such an approach.
But we have to consider Trump’s incentives. He is a man full of vanity, so does he want this for the betterment of the United States, or for himself?
Some here on Substack have discussed Trump’s Machiavellian Playbook. Does Trump see himself as the Prince of American politics? Although the aims seem noble to some, The Prince details the individual’s pursuit of power and control. According to Machiavelli, lies can sometimes be necessary, and bullying to get what one wants isn’t frowned upon. It’s Trump’s exact strategy, spelt out word for word in a guide to political leadership that was released centuries ago. Parts of the American system that are independent, such as the judiciary and the Federal Reserve, have received constant attacks from Trump. He seeks more power and control. The question then becomes how he uses it. Trump understands that if he has to choose between being feared and loved, he’ll attempt to exist in the realm of fear.
If we look around world politics today, we’re surrounded by such leaders. These leaders maintain power and control through more authoritarian stances, and in our world today, this power is pursued far more than morality. In times of rising geopolitical tension, such as today, realism and the pursuit of power are clear to see. Power recognises power, and if power smells weakness, it pounces to take advantage.
In times of less geopolitical tension, there is more room for idealist cooperation, and morality can lead to advantageous situations for all. However, today, we live in a world where power is necessary. For many, this puts us at the whims of powers far greater than ourselves. I question if we will transition from a realist world to one where idealism, morality, and peace can lead to the betterment of all, and how such a process would even occur.
In the near term, Trump will continue his attacks against his “enemies”, and he will seek to find more control and more power over the United States. This will come in rapid bursts as Trump attempts to change the system before anybody can realise it, especially in the areas discussed above. For the direction of these attacks, look at Trump’s atypical voter. Over four years, we could see societal changes, and Trump will attempt to secure his version of the Republican Party as one that will control the United States for many years to come. He has stated he would pursue a third term, but Vance would likely be equally committed to such a strategy. Trump wants to be one of the greatest Presidents in history, and as a part of this, he’s willing to play the role of a Prince.
Concluding Remarks
If I ever get an opportunity to bring up Alexei Navalny while writing, I'll grab it with both hands. The Russian societal pyramid scheme ensures those at the top remain at the top, and they remain there through corruption and bribery. Navalny fought against this, and it led to his unfortunate death. Is Trump attempting to build a similar system of complete executive control, or is he in pursuit of the opposite?
I also want to briefly touch on the Trump-Musk divorce we’ve seen unfold over the last few weeks as a result of Elon’s anger towards Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. This is what happens when the world’s most powerful man and the world’s richest man have egos the size of skyscrapers. One shouts into the ether on Twitter, and the other shouts into the void on Truth Social. I say let them shout, and the inevitable divorce will take valuable time and resources from both Trump and Musk. It doesn’t benefit either of them, especially Musk and his business interests with the U.S. government through SpaceX, Tesla, and Starlink. This damage to Musk was also seen in Tesla’s price action last week.
However, Trump isn’t invulnerable to damage. SpaceX is the only company with the capabilities of reusing rockets, and they already possess contracts with NASA for future missions. Musk also has an almost unending supply of financial resources to challenge Trump. Musk even called Trump out as being included in the unreleased Epstein Files, and he provided huge funding to the Republicans during the election campaign.
Even if this feud does fade into the background, individually, Trump and Musk will not. Their fresh dislike for each other will likely remain due to their overinflated egos, even if this story doesn’t make the news as much. In other potential consequences, could Musk potentially head over to the Democrats, a party he once supported in the past? With the Democrats currently existing quietly in the background, a Musk partnership could boost somebody back into the limelight. But, with Elon’s volatility, would somebody want to be associated with such chaos? Time will tell.
To close this series over the next week, I’m going to discuss the long-term futures of two regions of the planet that are pivotal for geopolitics: Europe and Asia. However, are these regions important for different reasons, and are they trending in opposite directions? Come back on Thursday and next Monday for these discussions.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week:
Asia
Europe
Arrests of Illegal Migrant Workers Increase 51% Under Labour in UK
Executive Bonuses Banned At Six Water Companies Over Pollution
Germany Considers Implementing Retirement Accounts For Kids As Young As 6
Moscow: Full Ceasefire Possible If Ukraine Pulls Back Troops and Holds Elections
White House Urges Starmer To Block Chinese Super Embassy In London
Middle East
Ayatollah Rejects U.S. Nuclear Proposal, Iran Will Keep Enriching Uranium
Haredi Parties Threaten To Trigger Election Due To Conscription
Iran Purchases Enough Fuel Materials From China For Up To 800 Ballistic Missiles
Israel Sold Record Amount of Debt In The U.S. Since Gaza War Started
Netanyahu Arming ISIS-Aligned Jihadis In Gaza, Israeli Defence Sources Confirm
Oil Tankers Go Dark Off Malaysian Coast As Sanctioned Iranian Crude Exports To China Accelerate
Syria Allows UN Team Immediate Access To Suspected Nuclear Sites
North America
Education Department Says Columbia University Fails To Meet Accreditation Standards
Kash Patel On Joe Rogan With Elon Musk Tweet About Trump and Epstein Files
Supreme Court Rejects Mexico’s $10B Lawsuit Against U.S. Gunmakers
Trump Signs Order Deregulating Flying Cars and Supersonic Flight
Trump Uses Emergency Powers To Boost The US Critical Minerals Industry
U.S. Ambassador Calls For Establishment Of Palestinian State In France
U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks By Most On Record In April As Imports Plunged
South America
Other
Boeing 737 Max Production Tops 38 Jets Per Month For First Time In Years
“Tether Will Be Biggest Bitcoin Miner In The World” - CEO Paolo Ardoino
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Sources:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/donald-trumps-machiavellian-instincts
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-is-the-american-machiavelli/2016/11/10/8ebfae16-a794-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_in_the_second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump
https://www.aclu.org/news/racial-justice/trumps-attack-on-the-department-of-education-explained
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0ln9lexyedo
https://newrepublic.com/post/196152/donald-trump-attack-columbia-accreditation
http://cbsnews.com/newyork/news/mahmoud-khalil-request-stop-deportation-proceedings-denied/
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-establishes-the-religious-liberty-commission/
https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2024/election-analysis-older-voters.html
https://glaad.org/trumps-trans-attacks-vs-economy/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3e5y4g5qxno