Geopolitics Review - 26th August 2024
Geopolitics Review - 26th August 2024
The US Election By Demographics
Contents
Introduction
General Demographic Figures
Gender
Education
Urbanisation
Religion
Age
Ethnicity
Raw Numbers Data
Hypothesis Testing
Key Questions
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
In exploring the upcoming election in the United States in November, it’s easy to make a surface-level analysis. We can look at the Harris campaign, and see that momentum is currently on her side. It takes a deeper look at demographics to determine why this could be occurring.
What are the gender balances in the United States? How does education affect voting patterns? Does urbanisation, religion, age, or ethnicity drive voting patterns?
From this data, I’ll state some potential trends occurring within the data. Why, in general, do white voters support Republicans? Why do voters aged between 18 and 29 support the Democrats? Which demographic groups and characteristics will decide this election?
Finally, how does Clinton compare to Biden? Based on Biden winning and Clinton losing, it would seem on the surface that Biden was more popular in 2020 than Clinton in 2016. Does the data support this? Where Trump falls when competing with Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 is also of importance. Find out more below.
Introduction
Upon looking at the polls for the upcoming election in the United States, it looks like the election is fairly even. It was expected that independent candidates would have a large sway on the outcome of this election, but RFK Jr admitting to leaving a dead bear cub in Central Park in New York has seen his polling figures fall, and his endorsement of Trump has seen him withdraw from 10 state votes. I’ll explore this situation in the following weeks. For now, with the polls not leading to many clear conclusions being drawn, I decided to dive into the demographics of the USA and explore who typically votes Democrat or Republican, based on the 2016 and 2020 elections as examples. I’ll also explore if these typical trends could unfold in similar or different ways during this election.
General Demographic Figures
Total Population = 334,914,895
Gender
The gender split in the United States is close to 50/50. A surplus of older females to older males slightly outweighs a surplus of young males to younger females, hence leading to 50.5% female vs 49.5% male.
In 2016, 52% of male voters cast a vote for Trump, and 41% of male voters chose Clinton as their candidate. Trump has adopted a display of masculinity in his political career and hence will attract male voters who value this.
As for female voters in 2016, only 39% voted for Trump, versus 54% for Clinton. Did Clinton attract more female voters, or did Trump’s history of misogyny push female voters away?
In 2020, 48% of male voters chose Biden, whereas 50% of male voters selected Trump. Trump’s percentage of male voters fell from 52% to 50%, and Biden saw a greater proportion of male votes come his way, rising from Clinton’s 41%. Did this increase in male voters help Biden win in 2020, and are men more likely to vote for a male Democrat candidate over a female candidate?
In 2020, female voters voted for Trump in a larger proportion than in 2016, with his voting proportion rising from 39% to 44%. This was still lower than the Democrat candidate Biden, who achieved 55% of total female votes. This was a 1% rise from Clinton’s 54% in 2016.
It could be assumed that a female candidate would gain more votes from the female population. However, Biden gained a higher percentage of female voters in 2020 than Clinton did in 2016. Both Clinton and Biden outshined Trump regarding female voters, but Trump did have an improvement between 2016 and 2020. Will this trend continue in the 2024 election?
In previous elections, independent voters can and have swayed the final results. Al Gore was beaten by George W. Bush in 2000, even though Gore won over half a million more votes than Bush. This was an example of how the popular vote can differ from the electoral college vote, which is the decider of who enters the White House. There were other controversial aspects of the 2000 election, such as bad ballot designs confusing voters and many ethnic-minority voters being denied a vote. Outside of all these issues, this election was an example of independent voters impacting the election.
In research from Gallup, pure independents who don’t lean towards one party or the other at all, account for 12% of the US electorate. In the swing states, margins between Harris and Trump are much finer than 12%, and hence this could affect those tight battles between them. I’ll explore the election at a state level in a few weeks where I’ll dive into this topic. For now, looking above, independents were quite evenly split in 2016, with 42% voting for Clinton and 43% voting for Trump.
In 2020, Trump retained his 43% of independent voters, but Biden’s 52% bettered Trump, a feat that Clinton didn’t manage to achieve in 2016. On the surface, Biden is already appearing more popular than Clinton in the popular vote.
Will Trump see an improvement in his proportion of independent voters this time, especially with an RFK Jr. endorsement?
Education
For individuals educated at high-school level or lower, in 2016, Trump attracted 51% of these votes versus Clinton’s 44%.
In 2020, Biden’s 41% proportion was lower than Clinton’s 44% in 2016, and Trump managed an improved proportion of 56%, up from 51%. Trump appears to be attracting at least a majority of voters with a high-school education or below. This was one rare example where Clinton gained a higher proportion of voters in a specific category than Biden.
As for those with a Bachelor’s degree, and Clinton attracted a majority of voters in 2016, with 52% versus Trump’s 41%.
Biden improved further on Clinton’s proportion in 2020, achieving 56% himself versus Trump with 42%. On the surface, it appears Democrat candidates gained more support among those of higher education, but Biden was preferred as a candidate to Clinton.
The correlation between education and voting Democrat is also evident in postgraduate voters, with Clinton’s 66% heavily outshining Trump’s 29% in 2016.
In 2020, Biden’s 67% improved on Clinton’s 66%. However, Trump’s proportion also increased from 2016 to 2020, albeit still a large distance from the Democrats. In 2016, 95% of postgraduate voters cast a vote for either the Democrat or Republican candidate. In 2020, this rose to 99%. For any dataset included, it's worth noting that the percentages may not add to 100% because some voters will vote for other candidates outside the Democrat or Republican nominee.
Urbanisation
There is a clear gap in urban voters. Trump increased his proportion from 2016 to 2020, and this is another example of Biden in 2020 achieving a lower proportion of votes than Clinton in 2016. Still, the gap between urban-living voters choosing Democrats over Republicans is large.
In considering suburban voters, the gap between Democrats and Republicans is more blurred. Trump achieved a greater proportion of suburban voters than Clinton in 2016, but Biden bettered Trump in 2020.
Rural voters heavily support Republican Trump over Democrat candidates. Looking at the results of the previous two elections, Trump’s support in the rural middle of the United States is clear.
Religion
Protestants, the largest proportion of religious belief within the United States, often lean Republican. From 2016 to 2020, Trump increased his proportion of Protestant voters, while voters for the Democrats from Protestantism remained relatively flat.
Catholics also leaned Republican in 2016, but not as strongly as Protestants. In 2020, this gap closed, with the split close to 50/50. The religious beliefs of the candidates themselves can have a huge effect, and Biden attends weekly Mass and has a picture of Pope Francis in the Oval Office, supporting his Catholic faith. Clinton is described as a Methodist, which is aligned with Protestantism. This was likely a contributor to Biden gaining an increased proportion of Catholic voters.
When it comes to non-religious US citizens, they vote heavily towards Democrats. Biden’s proportion was greater than Clinton's, and Trump’s proportion hovered around the one-quarter region in both 2016 and 2020.
Those of other religions in the United States also voted for Democrat candidates in a much greater proportion than Trump. From 2016 to 2020, Trump’s proportion remained close to unchanged, while Biden’s general popularity over Clinton is demonstrated once again here, with a rise to 64% from Clinton’s 61%.
Age
Voter proportion of 18 to 29-year-olds remained fairly stable from Clinton to Biden. However, Trump managed to gain a greater proportion from 2016 to 2020. Is this implying young people are taking a greater interest in politics, with the overall percentage of voters for both main parties rising from 86% to 94%?
The 30 to 49-year-old community also leans Democrat, but once again Trump is increasing his proportion. The gap between Democrats and Republicans in voters aged 30-49 is tighter than the gap of voters aged 18 to 29.
The 50-64 age group leans Republican. When comparing 2020 to 2016, the proportion of both Trump and Biden rose, with Biden compared to Clinton. Again, does this imply citizens in the United States in general are paying more attention to politics, or are there no independent candidates who stole votes from either the Republican or Democrat candidate in 2020?
Note: Rounding is why the percentages here add to 101%.
Amongst those aged over 65, Republican Trump also gains a larger proportion of the vote. Biden did pose a greater challenge than Clinton, with a 48% proportion for Biden in 2020 versus Clinton’s 44% in 2016.
Ethnicity
White citizens represent over three-quarters of the United States. However, the Hispanic, Black/African-American and Asian communities represent significant proportions of the United States population.
Among White voters, Trump has gained a greater proportion of the votes in both 2016 and 2020. Biden did better than Clinton by 4%, but Trump also improved his proportion. Will White voters remain more Republican-aligned in 2024?
Support among Black voters for Trump is incredibly low, and voters will likely remain strongly Democrat-aligned.
The Hispanic and Asian communities make up 29% of the United States and will have a large sway in the election. Trump’s support from the Hispanic population grew from 2016 to 2020, and from Clinton to Biden the support from the Hispanic community fell. If this trend continues, Harris could have an issue she needs to work towards addressing before November.
But in both elections, support from the Hispanic population was larger for the Democrat candidate than Trump. However, this election cycle, some polls have shown Trump beating Biden in the Hispanic community before his withdrawal from the race. Could Harris's inclusion on the ballot in November limit Hispanic voters from trending towards Trump?
Raw Numbers Data
As seen above in the raw numbers data, there is a population surplus in young males versus young females and older females versus older males. The six largest age ranges of males are the first six age ranges, from 15 to 44. For women, the age range between 40 and 44 is the first time they outnumber men in the same age range, but they continue to outnumber men in every age range older than this.
In the raw numbers data above, 187.9 million people are ethnically White, with 37.5 Black and African Americans, 61.2 million of Hispanic ethnicity, and 18.6 million of Asian ethnicity.
Over half of births in 2019, 2020, and 2021 in the United States were White, non-Hispanic. 23% were Hispanic, 14% Black, and 6% Asian.
Over time, the percentage of the White population within the American population has fallen, dropping from 72.4% in 2010 to 61.6% in 2020. During this same period, the biggest rise in percentage has been in multiracial individuals, rising from 2.9% in 2010 to 10.2% in 2020.
During his campaign, we’ve seen Donald Trump attempt to weaponize Kamala Harris’ multiracial identity, while speaking at the National Association of Black Journalists convention at the end of July. Trump likely didn’t survey his surroundings at the event, and it will likely have the opposite effect on a group he already has little support from. It was perceived as a disrespectful attack against Harris, who will garner strong support from the 37.5 million Black and African-American individuals in the United States and the 15.7 million multiracial individuals.
Hypothesis Testing
I’m aware I’ve included a lot of data and little analysis. Hence, I’m going to explore my initial conclusions from this data over the coming weeks, to figure out which underlying beliefs are supported by evidence and which are not. For now, here are some other key metrics and initial hypotheses I’ll explore more in the future.
Other Key Metrics:
85% of total voters for Trump in 2020 were White, non-Hispanic.
19% of total voters for Biden in 2020 were Black or African-American.
68% of Trump voters in 2020 didn’t have a four-year college degree.
58% of Trump voters were Protestant in 2020.
Key Hypotheses:
Hypothesis: Women are more likely to vote Democrat than Republican.
Hypothesis: Women are becoming more open to voting for Donald Trump over time.
Hypothesis: A male Democrat candidate sways male voters away from Trump.
Hypothesis: Independents liked Biden, not necessarily the Democrats.
Hypothesis: More educated means more Democrat-aligned.
Hypothesis: Rural voters prefer Trump and his support is growing.
Hypothesis: Suburban voters preferred Biden to Clinton.
Hypothesis: Urban voters are more Democrat than Republican.
Hypothesis: Non-religious people prefer Democrats to Republicans.
Hypothesis: Protestants prefer Republicans to Democrats.
Hypothesis: The 18-29 age bracket is becoming more interested in politics.
Hypothesis: Republicans are attracting a larger proportion of voters aged 18 to 29, but still nowhere near the Democrats’ level of support.
Hypothesis: Political beliefs differ much more for younger voters than older voters.
Hypothesis: Older voters are quite set in their ways, not shifting parties regardless of the candidate.
Hypothesis: By the majority of demographic characteristics, Biden was preferred to Clinton.
Hypothesis: Black and African-American voters strongly prefer Democrat candidates.
Hypothesis: Hispanic voters are showing more support for Trump.
Hypothesis: The White population leans Republican.
Key Questions To Answer For The 2024 Election:
Will women, who generally vote Democrat more than Republican, see a larger proportion vote for Harris because she herself is female? Or will the trend of women becoming more open to voting for Trump continue?
Will male voters support Trump because a male Democrat won’t pull them away as Biden potentially did? Or will the selection of Tim Walz as Harris’ VP maintain a similar proportion of male voters for the Democrats?
Will independents vote for Harris at similar levels to Biden or Clinton?
Will those voters of higher education once again increase the total proportion of votes received by Trump? Will this albeit increased proportion for Trump still be dramatically lower than educated voters who vote for Democrat candidates?
Will urbanisation in the United States see a prolonged period of Democrat leadership in the United States, or does urbanisation do little to sway elections?
How will religious beliefs play into this election, and elections in the long-term? Are people becoming less religious in the United States, and as a result will Democrats gain vote proportion in the long-term?
Will 18-29 voters still largely align with Democrats?
Will the White population continue to lean towards Republicans?
Will Harris gain the votes of the Black, African-American, and multiracial communities more than Clinton or Biden did previously?
Will the proportion of Hispanic voters selecting Trump continue to grow?
Will Harris be a more popular candidate than 2020 Biden? Will Harris be more popular than 2016 Clinton?
Concluding Remarks
I’m aware there isn’t much writing this week, but the datasets are time-consuming to create, and on occasion even finding the data in the first place can be difficult. I hope you can have a browse of the data, and if any other initial hypotheses jump out at you that I haven’t included, let me know below! I’ll add them to the list of ones I’ll explore.
I’ll dive into these hypotheses next week, while also exploring the key questions going into the 2024 election. Biden gaining a larger proportion of voters than Clinton in many datasets above could have been the difference-maker in Biden’s victory in 2020. Will Harris be able to do the same?
I’ll also explore the election on a state level the week after next. Which states will be the most important in the election? I’ll also explore probabilities and scenarios of a Trump or Harris win.
Importantly, as mentioned earlier, the popular vote doesn't see a candidate win The White House. The electoral college is what decides the election, and I’ll cover this in detail when analysing the election at a state level. Lots on the US election coming up, so if that’s a topic you’re interested in, keep an eye out.
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