Geopolitics Review - 31st March 2025

The Donald Diaries: The Ukraine War - The Pursuit Of A Ceasefire

Dylan Muggleton

Mar 31, 2025

Contents

Introduction
Where Are We In The Ukraine War?
Ceasefire Efforts
The Minerals Deal
Concluding Remarks

Bitesize Edition

One of the pursuits Trump has undertaken in his first few months is an end to the war in Ukraine. The conflict that started in February 2022 has undergone many chapters, but the latest chapter has Ukraine faltering. The Kursk offensive is all but over and Russia continues to slowly make gains. The war remains the Russian’s war to lose.
Trump has got the ball rolling on ceasefire talks. But the road hasn’t been without bumps. The meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office was one of the most dramatic public diplomacy failings ever seen, and it threatened to derail any potential ceasefire.
Apologies were made and on the surface, it would seem we are back on track. However, this road is littered with red flags. Although many of these deals proposed are painted as beneficial to Ukraine, they are being forced upon them because they have no alternatives. Ukraine has no cards, so Trump is forcing them to make the moves he wants through his economic statecraft and coercion. For the future of Ukraine, this isn’t good. Today, I’ll explore why.

Introduction

Trump promised peace in 24 hours in Ukraine. He obviously didn’t achieve this, because this issue is so deep that it requires a great time to understand. Trump is starting to understand this now as he seeks to negotiate a ceasefire agreement. As with all issues involving Trump, it’s a bumpy road to travel down. We’ve had Oval Office shouting matches, mineral deals, partial ceasefires that are reportedly being broken, and multiple Trump-Putin phone calls.

It’s time to break through all the noise and explore the current landscape of the Russia- Ukraine War and the issues a ceasefire would have to navigate. If you take away one thing from this piece, it should be that Ukraine is being forced down a path that will see it disadvantaged by the new Russia - U.S. partnership. Trump’s erratic, transactional approach to diplomacy sees him pivot in a heartbeat, and these pivots are truly starting to hurt the prospects of the future of Ukraine. Let’s jump into why this is occurring.

Where Are We In The Ukraine War?

Back in December, when I last gave updates on Ukraine, we were in a rather different environment. Russia had the upper hand, but their momentum was slow. Today, there is evidence that Russia is advancing at a faster rate, both physically on the battlefield and in achieving its wider goals.

Firstly, Russia now has a small presence in the Kharkiv oblast, and they essentially completely control Luhansk. In Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, the Russians don’t control the entire oblast. With a Trump territorial deal having the potential to see Ukraine lose all four Oblasts to Russia, I question why Ukraine should give up territory it has under its control, all as a part of ending a war it didn’t ask for. Of course, with pressure being enforced from Trump, the prospect of losing security, aid, and support from the United States could see Ukraine accept such a deal.

The final wildcard was the Kursk offensive from Ukraine. A few weeks ago, Putin ordered his troops to push the Ukrainians out completely. Again, as in other regions of fighting, momentum is with Russia, and some reports have detailed that the Kursk offensive has concluded with Ukraine in retreat.

a view of a city from a hill — Photo by Dmitry Burdakov on Unsplash

Back at the White House meeting, Trump said to Zelenskyy, “You don’t hold any cards”. Unfortunately, the evidence above would imply that Ukraine is rapidly losing any leverage it has. This conflict has been in a form of stalemate for a long time, but if Trump wants to, he can hurt Ukraine, and Zelenskyy knows this.

With Trump and Putin essentially deciding the future of Ukraine without European involvement, and with Ukraine coerced into accepting deals that heavily limit them, where could the current ceasefire efforts lead us?

Ceasefire Efforts

Before diving into the current ceasefire attempts, it’s prudent to look at what both sides want.

The Russian demands from the Istanbul Communique were reiterated by Sergei Lavrov in his interview with Tucker Carlson last year. These are as follows:

Ukraine was allowed to apply for EU membership as a neutral state.
Limits placed on the size of Ukraine’s military.
Ukraine ceases NATO membership plans.
Foreign military bases are banned in Ukraine.
Russia and Western countries listed as guarantors are obliged to assist Ukraine in the event of aggression against it.
Crimea was to be negotiated after 10 or 15 years.
Russia keeps the territory it possesses and the four oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

white and green tower during night time — Photo by Eugene on Unsplash

In an interview with Sky News in late 2024, Zelenskyy laid out Ukraine’s demands for a deal. We have also had previous conditions on Ukraine’s part from the late 2022 Ukraine Peace Formula. His and Ukraine’s conditions were:

Full Russian withdrawal.
Restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders.
Justice for war crimes.
Security guarantees against aggression, with potential for NATO membership.
Reparations from Russia to rebuild.
No territorial concessions.
Nuclear safety for Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Asia and Africa food security.
Security of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Prisoners of war, civilian detainees, and child deportees returned.
Ecocide investigation from Kakhovka Dam destruction.
A summit and treaty.
Ukraine is allowed to join the EU.

As I’ve discussed in the past, there were some demands here that couldn’t be negotiated because they were polar opposites. This was the challenge facing Trump: How can he change the current environment so these gaps either no longer exist or can be closed and negotiated? Trump’s current strategy seems to be to appease Russia and pressure Ukraine because, as I’ve discussed in recent weeks, Trump is starting a new power-based world order, and he sees Russia and Putin as powerful. Whether an accurate interpretation of Russia and Putin, it seems that this is how Trump feels, and as the man in the most powerful office in the world, this has consequences.

Territorial compromises, including a potential full recognition of Crimea as Russian, are ideas that are being considered by Trump. A lifting of sanctions as part of a deal is also being proposed today, even without a full ceasefire. NATO membership is off the table for Ukraine according to the sides negotiating, but neutral-EU membership is possible.

Previous agreements also considered using the stolen Russian FX reserves to rebuild or making Russia pay for the rebuild. This was unrealistic and would have never been agreed to by the Russians.

Trump is aiming to close these gaps. But this is being decided for Ukraine by the United States and Russia. It’s great that progress is being made to close these gaps between Russia and Ukraine, but in contributing to a weakened Ukraine, will they be worse off in the long term?

blue and brown hand painting — Photo by Elena Mozhvilo on Unsplash

The pressure campaign against Zelenskyy is extensive. This pressure escalated with the Zelenskyy- Trump shouting match in the Oval Office. Intelligence was cut off, and aid was cancelled in the aftermath of the diplomatic failure. Even planes heading to Ukraine were turned around mid-flight. This weakened Ukraine dramatically since they couldn’t foresee missile attacks coming before they hit their targets, and they also couldn’t see where Russian logistics were being moved. France and other European nations increased intelligence sharing in response, but still, Ukraine remained weakened. It’s at this moment that Ukraine realised that it needed the support of the United States in the war.

When Zelenskyy rejected Trump’s proposed deal, he hurt his ego. Trump will see the rejection as offensive. Trump was trying to help, and instead, he saw Zelenskyy as spitting in his face. All this was part of the pressure campaign on Zelenskyy that is seeing the future of his nation decided for him.

The United States has also met with Ukrainian opposition in yet another pressure tactic. Is there a plan to better negotiate with somebody who isn’t Zelenskyy, or is Trump covering all bases? It’s clear there are some who want Zelenskyy out of office, including Putin, who proposed a UN-led government in the last few days, much to the anger of Trump.

Those who want Zelenskyy out of office want it to be easier to formulate a deal that disadvantages Ukraine. Zelenskyy previously offered to step down if it would provide a better chance of a deal being formulated, a move that shows how much he cares about the future of his nation. Any deal that disadvantages the Ukrainian people, however, is a flawed plan and a crime to enact upon a nation that has fought for over three years.

Zelenskyy has since apologised for the event and has pledged cooperation with Trump and his “strong leadership”. We are here today because of this pressure. Zelenskyy knows that an end to the war has to involve the United States. If an end to the war wasn’t reached and the United States wasn’t providing support to Ukraine, the reality of the war on the ground could dramatically shift in favour of the Russians.

With the apology issued, we come onto the reason for the Zelenskyy - Trump meeting in the first place: The minerals deal.

assorted color of stone on white table — Photo by Edz Norton on Unsplash

The Minerals Deal

At first, this deal was seen as a lifeline for Ukraine. It would allow Ukraine to achieve an economic interconnection with the United States that would act as a security guarantee. Over time, however, we’re seeing the reality of what this deal is: A pursuit of more power and influence by Trump.

On paper, an economic deal is a good idea. It allows Ukraine to utilise one of its strengths with its rich array of resources, while achieving a level of security without physical troops on the ground in Ukraine, which is a non-negotiable for the Russians. Oil, natural gas, pipelines, a reconstruction fund, lithium, and other raw materials needed by the United States would reduce their reliance on China, something Trump is hoping to do.

However, yesterday, Trump reintroduced a previous clause in the deal. Ukraine would have to repay all aid given during the war with added interest. This payment would come in the form of the United States taking 50% of all new licenses and royalties from Ukraine’s developing mineral resources. Trump would also take 50% of all revenue from infrastructure projects. This would heavily weaken Ukraine in the long term while benefitting the United States, just as Lend Lease did during World War Two. Not that a nation shouldn’t prioritise self-interest, because it should. But an effort to end the war should be made with a permanent solution in mind for the nations involved. Would a weakened Ukraine just delay another attempt by Russia to control the country, whether through a hot war or other means, such as political interference? There have also been some reports that the United States could take control of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, but Trump hasn’t mentioned this in recent discussions surrounding the deal.

a sign that says stop war in front of a crowd of people — Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Out-of-the-box thinking for a guarantee of Ukraine’s sovereignty is necessary here. But there is a big issue with a deal of this kind that will see a U.S. presence in Ukraine. Once Trump’s term ends, would a different U.S. President have the same attitude towards an economic coupling with Ukraine, or would they use such a foothold in Ukraine to threaten Russia? Just because a deal could make sense in the short-term, in the longer-term, things are less clear. The security for Ukraine, while also being acceptable for Russia in the long-term even after Trump has gone, is one of the most difficult aspects of a ceasefire to finalize.

With that being said, Trump on the surface seems to have made some progress, with a halting of strikes on energy infrastructure from both sides and a ceasefire in the Black Sea. Some reports have already disputed whether either side is actually obeying this, with both Russia and Ukrainian striking on energy infrastructure reported since the ceasefire.

white electric windmills during daytime — Photo by Luca Bravo on Unsplash

Also, it was reported that the Black Sea ceasefire was negotiated differently with Russia and Ukraine. The Americans gave the impression that attacks in the Black Sea by Russia would lead to Trump enacting larger sanctions on Russia. However, the deal made between the U.S. and Russia implied a serious weakening of sanctions. The deal with Russia proposed the following:

Lifting of sanctions on financial institutions and the Russian reconnection to SWIFT.
Lifting of restrictions on trade finance operations.
Lifting of sanctions on companies that produce and export food products and fertilisers, as well as on insurance companies for shipping.
Lifting restrictions on port servicing of vessels and sanctions on Russian-flagged ships.
Lifting of restriction on supply of agricultural machinery to Russia.

The narrative throughout this ceasefire has been that Trump is in pursuit of peace, and that’s a good thing. But by now, there should be a feeling that you have an itch that you can’t quite reach. If you squint your eyes, you can see that we’re actually standing in a field of red flags. The new power-based world order is upon us, and this deal is yet another example that Europe and Ukraine are either on their own or have to happily accept life being thrown around by Trump and the United States.

As I stated earlier, nations need to be able to defend themselves. This is especially true for Ukraine, which is currently being led down a road to peace in a blindfold, as Trump places it in handcuffs.

a white mannequin with a red band on its head — Photo by David Underland on Unsplash

Concluding Remarks

We’re in a position where Zelenskyy can’t reject any deals Trump proposes. This new deal is heavily weighted towards benefitting the United States, while coercing Ukraine into saying yes because they need the United States for security. Europe is sitting on its hands and not doing anything, nor is it in a position to due to deep structural weakness and divides made clear in the decoupling from the United States and the end of the European security umbrella held by the Americans. The EU is also heavily dependent on others for energy, and economically is stagnant. Europe lacks strategic clarity. Zelenskyy knows this and experienced life in the war for a few days without U.S. support. The Europeans are not in a position to step up, so the unfortunate reality is that Ukraine needs the United States.

Again, this Trump approach to a ceasefire reiterates my idea that we are entering a new power-based world order. Those with the cards will take at the expense as those who don’t. Trump said it himself: Ukraine has no cards. To Donald, that means he can push them around and get everything he wants because if Ukraine doesn’t accept, they’re in it alone.

Biden made no progress to close the gaps in demands between Russia and Ukraine. Trump is closing the gaps, but at the expense of the Ukrainians. Unfortunately, I can’t see any forces stepping in and shifting this trend.

On Thursday, I’ll explore where this ceasefire push could see us head. I’ll also dive into the history of Russia and Europe. Even with Russia and the United States seemingly on the same page, the same can’t be said for the frsoty relations between Russia and the Europeans. This will remain and set us up for a tense period of time in Europe, especially in the east. How will this look heading forward, and is Trump facilitating the Russian achievement of everything beyond its wildest dreams? Come back on Thursday for this.

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