Geopolitics Review - 14th October 2024 - Hidden Wars: Sudan
Geopolitics Review - 14th October 2024 - Hidden Wars: Sudan
Looking Forward In Sudan
Contents
Introduction
The Background In Sudan
The Players Involved
Potential Futures In Sudan
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Two weeks ago, I started a series I’ve been calling Hidden Wars. Many conflicts are unfolding globally with little to no coverage in the media. Hence I decided it’s an area that needs exploring. In my first post, I discussed the history of Sudan in a post I’d recommend reading first for context. Today, I’ll explore the present-day situation Sudan finds itself in, who the players are in the conflict, and where it could be heading next.
There are multiple domestic players on the ground in Sudan, and geopolitical players such as Ukraine, the UAE, Iran, and Russia have interests in Sudan and involvement in the conflict, whether directly or indirectly. It’s worth exploring how these players continue to contribute to the volatile situation on the ground in Sudan.
Introduction
My first post set the foundations for the current situation in Sudan, including coverage of multiple coups, a history of colonialism, and the rise of multiple factions involved in the conflict today. For the history prevalent in this conflict, I recommend heading there first.
If you’re covered with historical knowledge, let’s dive into the situation on the ground in Sudan today.
The Background In Sudan
In April 2023, the conflict in Sudan escalated between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Hemedti, who was Deputy Head of the 2019 Transitional Military Council following the coup that ousted Omar Al-Bashir. Plans to merge the RSF into the SAF failed as both Al-Burhan and Hemedti sought greater individual power.
Other minor groups involved in the conflict are the Darfur Joint Protection Force, SLM, and the SPLM-N. The SLM split off in 2006 following the Darfur Peace Agreement, which its leader, Al-Nur, refused to sign. The SPLM-N was formed after the independence of South Sudan in 2011 when the troops that remained in Sudan after the split named themselves SPLM-N, standing for Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North.
Most fighting occurs in and around Khartoum, as well as the region of Darfur. The conflict is one of the biggest humanitarian disasters globally, with over seven million displaced and over two million fleeing as refugees. Over 20,000 have been killed. Let’s go back to the start to analyse how we find ourselves in the situation we do today.
Red = SAF
Blue = RSF
Yellow = SPLM-N
Dark Red = SLM
Light Blue = Joint Darfur Force
Al-Bashir remains under arrest after his 2019 removal and he has seen his health deteriorate in recent years. He appears to no longer be involved in politics or the conflict.
After 2019, the problems then emerged with the joint military-civilian government from 2019-2021. Hemedti was the leader of the RSF and deputy leader of the transition government council. Al-Burhan was the leader of the SAF and leader of the transitional government council. Their partnership fracturing led to rising tensions and Al-Burhan’s 2021 coup which saw the dissolution of the transitional council and the consolidation of power by the SAF. The power-sharing between military and civilian groups was over. A failure of an attempted RSF-SAF merger in 2023 saw the civil war that we see today ignite.
The RSF under Hemedti are accused of committing ethnic cleansing of the Fur, Masalit, and Zaghawa people and the ICC has indicted the RSF leaders of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. The RSF had a relationship with the Wagner Group and was granted gold mines previously when Al-Bashir was in power. This has seen their wealth and weapons capabilities grow sharply. Even though they are outnumbered 3:1 by the SAF, the conflict finds all sides making little progress.
International mediation attempts resulted in May 2023’s Treaty of Jeddah, which didn’t hold and fighting resumed. No other mediation attempts have thus far been successful.
The dynamic of power is interesting in this conflict. The coup in 2019 left a vacuum that was supposed to allow a transition to democracy, but those involved prior to a civilian government clearly wanted more individual power, hence the 2021 coup occurred. If one military leader wanted some power, others were clearly lined up also with higher personal aspirations, and here we are with this conflict and the same cycle that continues to unfold over and over again.
In an underdeveloped country, the fight is not for power, but survival. What incentives can be provided in a country to leaders to rule together for its citizens, and not against each other for personal gain? How can power vacuums that emerge not be taken advantage of by those who wish to exploit them? Do these leaders want to survive, to exploit those less fortunate than them, or to take power to help others? Every time a coup attempt or other changes in the balance of power occur, it’s these questions that are considered by key players. Unfortunately, the most common occurrence is the exploitation of those with less power to boost their own individual power. When we have a lack of reputable institutions, power-sharing mechanisms, or powerful players to maintain peace, the cycle seems set to repeat.
We hence should focus on longer-term trends.
How can a country that has experienced 19 coup attempts since being granted independence in 1956 by a colonial power that found itself too far from home ever emerge from this cycle? In Sudan, there are currently other players on the international stage who continue to provide fuel to this conflict. Focusing on limiting their influence on the conflict would be a start in my opinion. Let’s explore these players below.
The Players Involved
In some interesting geopolitical moves, the SAF government forces are supported by Ukraine and Iran. Contrastingly, the RSF is supported by the UAE. Let’s explore the intricacies as to why these players support the sides they do, and what other players are involved in this conflict, even by minor connection.
Ukraine, Russia, and The Wagner Group - During the current conflict, there have been media reports of Ukrainian activity in Sudan. Why would Ukrainians be active in Sudan? This is connected to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group is a supporter of the RSF and the group controls gold mines within Sudan. These gold mines could help finance the RSF, Wagner, and Russia itself. Hence, it has been reported the Ukrainian Special Service have been behind attacks against the RSF in September and October 2023, as the Ukrainians attempt to undermine Russian influence around the world, not just in the conflict in Europe.
Iran - Historically, Iran generally supported Al-Bashir and the Sudanese government during his 30 years of rule. In February 2024, Sudan’s acting Foreign Minister travelled to Tehran to meet with his counterpart and former President Raisi, but this was the warmest relations have been for many years. In 2016, Sudan cut diplomatic ties with Iran following an attack on the Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran. The Sudanese supported the Saudis so heavily that they provided troops to support the Saudi’s fight against the Houthis in Yemen. As we know, the Houthis are supported by Iran. This started Sudan’s trend towards Saudi Arabia, who as mentioned earlier sought to negotiate a calming of the conflict in May of 2023. With China’s brokered peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran holding firm, Sudan and Iran have since restarted relations. The presence of Iranian drones in Sudan has been reported since 2008, and IRGC cargo planes have been reported to be flying between Iran and the Port of Sudan, which is a territory controlled by the SAF. If this doesn’t highlight the knife's edge that many geopolitical relations are built upon, I don’t know what does. Russia and Iran are supporting different sides in this conflict, yet Iran has been supplying drones for Russia’s war in Ukraine. In a deeper question, is Sudan and Iran’s rapprochement a sign of more influence for the Islamist sectors in the government in Sudan, as Al-Bashir was aligned with?
The UAE - The United Arab Emirates is deemed as supporting the RSF by some. This places them on the opposite side of this conflict to Iran, and the same side as Russia. The UAE also has stakes in the gold mines controlled by the RSF. The UAE denies its involvement in the conflict but has been rumoured to be supplying the RSF with weapons. The issue rose to the surface when rapper Macklemore cancelled an event in the UAE last month due to the support of the RSF and the continuation of the civil war. This issue has also seen the United States appeal to the UAE to stop support. Some analysts state the UAE is providing fuel that is seeing this conflict continue.
Kenya and The African Union - Kenya is a neighbouring country of Sudan, and through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Kenyan President William Ruto has pursued peace talks and an end to the conflict. The African Union has also tried to mediate, but progress has been difficult due to differences in attitude between Sudan and the nations within the union.
Ethiopia - Ethiopia also shares a border with Sudan and has a dispute with Sudan over the Al-Fashaga region. Hence, Ethiopia has been involved to some extent in pursuing some level of peace or an end to conflict, but any solution likely won’t go against their personal strategic motivations.
Libya - Another region that is experiencing conflict. Libya has been touted as a route of weapons smuggling for conflicts in Africa, including in Sudan. Factions in Libya are reported to have supported both the SAF and RSF.
Chad - Another neighbour of Sudan, is arguably one of the most important due to the location of its border. Historically, Chad has ethnic and political ties to both the RSF and SAF. The Darfur region has been instability for years, and the region has ethnic ties to Chad. Hence, clashes have erupted on the border, and Chad is worried about the impact of a refugee crisis as people flee the conflict in Sudan.
UK - The UK connection to Sudan is historic, linking back to the colonial period. As has occurred in many other regions, the UK leaving regions it once controlled has left power vacuums that continue to be fought over to this day. We recently saw the deal that saw the UK give sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. These colonial period issues are deep-rooted, and power vacuums that the UK has a responsibility to address exist around the world. The situation in Sudan is one such vacuum.
Egypt - Sudan’s northern neighbour also worries about security and The Nile. Egypt diplomatically supports the SAF and supports a military-led Sudan. Egypt and the SAF have also undertaken joint military exercises together and signed a military cooperation agreement in March 2021. Egypt’s role in the conflict intensified when Egyptian soldiers were captured by RSF fighters, but were eventually returned.
Potential Futures In Sudan
When viewing this conflict, there are some scenarios to consider.
Firstly, the question of whether this conflict ends as a stalemate, or a clear winner is determined. A stalemate has the potential to spark once again at any time, as has occurred multiple times in Sudan’s recent history. Any power vacuums that emerge are taken advantage of by multiple parties, hence civil war erupts. No permanent solutions or incentives to maintain peace would be a clear sign of this scenario, or no player powerful enough to incentivize a lasting peace.
Regardless of who wins, it seems neither side wants to establish civilian rule, with military leadership likely to be established regardless of an RSF or SAF victory. An RSF victory has the potential to spill over into neighbouring countries, with Russia and the UAE gaining significant influence in the region. Egypt would also lose influence in this event.
An SAF victory would be better received by regional players, who generally lean to larger support of the SAF but would be unlikely to see an attempt to return to the road to democracy. In September, the assistant commander-in-chief of the SAF stated they would continue military rule for 15-20 years if they achieved victory in the war.
A second key unknown is international mediation. We have seen Saudi Arabia help mediate through the Treaty of Jeddah in May 2023. Although this didn’t hold, it shows both the RSF and SAF are willing to listen to the Saudis. Of the other players, could Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, or the African Union help in reducing the conflict? There are also the players who are fuelling this conflict further. Can pressure be placed on these geopolitical actors to reduce support, or could they be incentivised to push for an end to the conflict themselves? As with all geopolitical events, it’s a complex network of strings. Pull on one string and another shifts. We can consider incentives for the RSF and SAF to cede fighting, but what if incentivising other international actors involved here could be a more prudent strategy to pursue?
Concluding Remarks
The future of Sudan remains uncertain, but the situation warrants continued attention and analysis. I hope this series of pieces can raise some awareness. The SAF are currently undertaking a major offensive on the capital Khartoum in an attempt to recapture the city from the RSF. Could this mark a turning point in a conflict that has recently been embroiled in a stalemate or could we see another military dictatorship as the conflict ends with one side beating the other?
The current environment lacks powerful actors who can pause or solve this conflict. Since the more powerful international players seem to be fuelling conflict, do we need new players to step in? In the face of one of the biggest displacement crises in the world, new approaches with new players need to be made for the better, not the worse.
Next week, I’ll discuss another region with a lack of coverage in the media: Myanmar.
Other News
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Google Turns To Nuclear To Power Data Centres After Amazon and Microsoft
Hungary Might Delay G7 $50B Loan To Ukraine Until After US Election
Iran Seeking To Reduce Scale of Israel’s Response Via Middle Eastern Diplomacy
Iran Warns Gulf States Against Allowing Israel To Use Airspace. Will Retaliate
Israeli Forces Raise Flag In Village of Maroun al-Ras In Southern Lebanon
Largest Crude Hub In Crimea On Fire After Ukraine Drone Attack
Russia Send Processed Oil Products to Israel and Facilitates Kazakh Oil Exports
Saudi Foreign Minister Receives Iranian Counterpart In Riyadh
Thousands of French Soldiers To Arrive In Romania For Simulated Combat With Russia
Turkish President: Israel Is A “Zionist Terrorist Organisation”
Ukrainian Journalist Viktoriya Roschyna Died In Russian Captivity
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