The Middle East Looking Forward
Where Do We Go From Here?
Contents
Introduction
A Managed De-Escalation
A Controlled Escalation
An Uncontrolled Escalation
Pathways Towards Escalation
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Escalation Is The Baseline – This conflict has moved beyond de-escalation. Most outcomes we’re seeing are escalatory in nature. Even if we consider “controlled” scenarios of escalation, they are growing more unstable due to rising costs, competing incentives, and unresolved strategic objectives. As a result, the most likely path is continued uncontrolled escalation, either gradually or through sudden triggers.
De-Escalation Is Temporary, Not Resolutive – Another reason de-escalation is unlikely is that near-term or mid-term de-escalation scenarios would not solve the underlying conflict. Iran would remain incentivised to pursue nuclear capability, while Israel would maintain a pre-emptive strike doctrine, and Iran with nuclear weapons would be deemed an existential threat. This creates a cyclical conflict dynamic where pauses in fighting would only set the stage for future escalation. I concluded this after the Twelve-Day War, and here we are once again.
Triggers Will Define The Next Phase – Key escalation pathways being discussed in recent analysis include a Hormuz operation, a land assault, or regime destabilisation. Each of these actions would mark a transition into a more dangerous phase. These triggers are not standalone scenarios but mechanisms that push the system into higher levels of escalation.
Regime Stability Is The Biggest Unknown – Iran’s regime could endure, collapse internally, or fragment into competing power centres. External pressure may strengthen short-term cohesion, while internal stressors like energy shortages and unrest could erode stability over time. The outcome of Iran’s internal dynamics will shape not just the war, but the future structure of the Middle East.
Introduction
Last week, we discussed the history that has unfolded between Iran, Israel, and the United States that brought us to the present environment.
Now that we’ve set the stage, we can explore the current situation and the potential directions in which it could head. I’ll explore de-escalatory and escalatory pathways, as well as the secondary and tertiary order effects that could unfold in the case of each scenario.
We’ll begin by discussing potential paths for de-escalation, before then discussing escalatory scenarios and the main geopolitical moves that could drive these escalations. Let’s dive in.
