The Issues With China's Geography

China’s Chokepoints and Strategies To Prevent Its Potential Weaponisation

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The Chokepoints

3. China’s Strategies To Reduce Maritime Risk

4. Can China Neutralise Its Geographical Risk?

5. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• China’s Geography Problem: Surrounded by chokepoints like the Taiwan Strait, Luzon Strait, Strait of Malacca, and Strait of Hormuz, China’s trade and energy lifelines are vulnerable to pressure from rivals.

• The Malacca Dilemma: About 60% of China’s oil imports pass through Malacca, where the U.S. and its allies have a strong military presence. Alternatives like Lombok and Sunda are less practical.

• China’s Workarounds: China’s geography can hence be weaponised against it. But they have multiple strategies to diversify and spread this risk.

• The Reality: China can’t erase this geography. It can only reduce risk via these strategies, not eliminate risk completely. But China plays the geopolitical long game and will continue to do so. The question is how successful these strategies they pursue will be in insulating themselves?

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Introduction

On Monday, I discussed military geography in the Indo-Pacific, with a specific focus on Chinese and American assets.

The region sees territorial disputes, and China is hoping to break out of the First Island Chain. Stretching down from Japan, through Taiwan, the Philippines, and down to Borneo, this geography can contain China, or they can push beyond it.

If we look further afield, there are other geographic aspects that China has to contend with. There are multiple choke points, and China is pursuing strategies to limit the impact of these if they were to be weaponised.

What choke points are important for China to consider, and what strategies do they pursue? Also, despite the pursuit of these strategies, can China fully protect itself if a geopolitical adversary were to weaponise these choke points? Let’s dive in.

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