The History of The Taiwan Strait
The History of The Taiwan Strait
The Taiwan Strait has seen three crises before the current one. Is this the fourth?
Either way, here is how the first three unfolded.
Taiwan is a small island off the coast of China in the Pacific ocean. Taiwan declares itself independent. China does not. China follows its one-China policy, and it includes Taiwan within that. It openly accepts that two separate systems could run the Chinese mainland and the island of Taiwan, but China wants them within its sphere of influence.
Between 1895 and 1945, Taiwan was under Japanese rule. After the Chinese Civil War, Taiwan, which the nationalists had fled to (ROC & KMT), broke away in 1949 from mainland China, controlled by Communist China which had won the civil war (PRC). This was after World War Two in which China was allied with the United States against Japan. Impossible to imagine nowadays.
This caused tension in the Taiwanese strait. The first crisis occurred from September 1954 to May 1955. The second followed in 1958. The most recent transpired from July 1995 to March 1996. As this is the most recent, it could indicate more accurately how the current crisis will unfold better than the first two.
The Chinese government announced missile tests by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Chinese military, in the Taiwan Strait. They also sent forces to Fujian, a province in southeast China, directly on the coast. Both events have occurred this time, in exactly the same way. Further exercises were in August and November.
In July, the US responded. They sent USS Belleau Wood down the Taiwan Strait. In December, the USS O’Brien and the USS McClusky followed suit before the USS Nimitz later in the same month. Finally, in March 1996 USS Independence and USS Nimitz were located close to the region, with the Nimitz and Belleau Wood sailing through the strait again. China's tactic it seemed was to announce more live fire exercises after the US had passed through, possibly in an attempt to intimidate Taiwan.
How would the situation unfold this time if the US tried the same tactic?
Taiwan has always been a key interest of China. Taiwanese exports were $391B in 2020, and 41.6% of this was electronic integrated circuits, which will include semiconductors. China has proceeded to integrate trade restrictions with Taiwan, which includes food goods such as fruits and fish imports to China, and natural sand exports to Taiwan. Taiwan exported 36.42% of its entire exports to China, making them their biggest trade income. With geopolitical tension in the area, will this impact the semiconductor trade? This could be a reason for the US chips act, the reliability of supply the US usually has could be questioned. All countries in times of geopolitical tension will turn to protect themselves more and aim to become self-sufficient. Are we seeing the start of this?