The Global Questions Series: Number 12 - Dear World Leader

Trump, Morality, and The Changing World

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Demographics and Destiny

3. Psychological Societal Trends

4. The Recency Bias and Anti-Incumbent Shift

5. Political-Morality and Self-Interest

6. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• As the 2024 U.S. Election sits in the rearview mirror, everybody has trawled through the data, seeking to explain how Donald Trump once again won the presidency.

• Some trends are occurring in other elections around the world that were also seen in the United States, such as the lack of incumbent success. It seems when given a choice between more years of the same candidate ruling, or a candidate of change, the change candidates are seeing greater success generally in 2024.

• But, there are also deep underlying societal shifts unfolding before our very eyes. How did young men lacking role model figures contribute to this election? Or how has the anti-establishment crowd wrestled control from the establishment, promoting transparency and trust as two guiding principles they will embody? Will they even embody these principles at all or is it empty rhetoric? Collective societal psychology has contributed heavily to this election in the United States, and these key trends are what I’ll explore in today’s edition of the Global Questions Series.

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Introduction

I had an idea for a piece of writing last year that I wanted to address directly to world leaders. I never wrote such a piece, but after the election in the United States, as I wrote my reflection on the election, this idea formed instead for a more psychological and philosophical piece, still with a focus on the character of our world leaders. I decided the name of this piece would prove useful here.

Many have questioned the character of Donald Trump. How can he be appointed President of the most powerful country in the world? How can a man who has made awful, misogynistic comments against women find himself seated in the most powerful seat in the world come January? How is that representative of the people in society?

This led me to consider the character of our world leaders and the psychological trends running through society that see them elected. In democratic systems, we elect one person who will determine the direction our country takes. Having this leader reflect what the citizens of their country truly want should be expected. However, this often isn’t the case. How do idealism and realism sit on opposite sides of this issue? Is it a flaw with the entire political system? Does this issue often present itself through political polarisation? Perhaps we have been fed awful candidates for so long that we have to pick the lesser of a group of evils. Let’s dive into all these questions in this edition of the Global Questions Series.

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Demographics and Destiny

There are many different connections to concepts within geopolitics and destiny. Some say geography is destiny, with natural resources, access to trade routes, and natural borders acting as advantageous or hindrances to geopolitical actors. Others say demographics are destiny, with population size, structure, and education driving current trends. When it comes to elections, both are certainly important. But today, I’ll focus solely on demographics.

Morally, Donald Trump has done some awful things in his life. He’s a misogynist, he’s gone to trial multiple times and has cheated on his partners. So then why has he once again been elected President of the United States? Part of the answer, specifically the data-driven answer, is in our demographics.

Where did Trump gain in 2024 versus in 2020?

• Men (55% vs 53%)

• Women (45% vs 42%)

• Black Men (21% vs 19%)

• Latino Men (55% vs 36%)

• Latino Women (38% vs 30%)

• Men Aged 18-29 (49% vs 41%)

• Women Aged 18-29 (37% vs 32%)

• No College Degree (56% vs 50%)

• Income Under $50k (50% vs 44%)

• Income $50k - $99k (51% vs 42%)

Based on this, Trump made gains in general across both genders, but diving deeper we see this was based on Latino, young, and lower-educated voters. How do bigger trends emerging in society support these data conclusions?

Photo by ANTIPOLYGON YOUTUBE on Unsplash

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Psychological Societal Trends

Even with questions towards Trump’s character, still he was chosen as the one representative for America. It represents a polarisation not just in politics, but in society in general. He hence hasn’t alienated everybody, otherwise, he wouldn’t have won.

And so, based on Trump’s voters, what psychological societal undercurrents could be working for and against his recent success, and why?

• Generational Theory - Older voters typically vote Republican, but also vote for Trump. These generations grew up in times of relative hardship versus today’s youth, and hence look aspiringly towards strong leaders as Trump paints himself. As much as we can debate Trump’s policies, he typically makes them decisively, another way in which some voters could interpret him as a strong leader. Older generations are also typically routed in their ways, and hence voting patterns are less likely to shift for them. As birth rates continue to decline in the developed world, this trend could see ageing populations vote in predictable ways for quite some time.