The Global Questions Series: Number 4 – The Chances Of A Wider Middle Eastern Regional Conflict

Contents

1. Introduction – Iran vs Israel

2. The United States

3. Israel

4. Iran

5. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• All eyes are on the Middle East right now, with the Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus seemingly contributing to rising escalations.

• Iran’s backed militias have all been involved in Israel’s conflict against Hamas, with Hezbollah attacking Israel from over the border in Lebanon, and the Houthi Rebels attacking ships in the Red Sea and launching attacks towards Israel.

• This attack on the consulate could see a response from Iran directly. It's important in what form this attack would come. Will it be a retaliation from Iran, or will it be made to look like a retaliation from Iran that has little impact? When Qassem Soleimani was killed by US forces in 2020, Iran responded with attacks against the Al Asad base in Iraq. Iraq was warned beforehand, and no US troops died. Iran can’t be seen to look weak in its own eyes, but its response could show some restraint. There’s also the potential its response doesn’t show restraint, however.

• There are many actors involved in the Middle East and the Israel-Hamas conflict. What would each of these actors want this situation to look like when we reach the end of it, and what secondary and tertiary effects would come of these potential scenarios? Find out more below. Note, you can access this edition of my Global Questions Series with a 1-week free trial of my paid content on Substack. You can also use your one-time unlock of a paywalled article.

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Introduction

Last week, we saw Israel attack the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria.

Iran has responded thus far with aggressive rhetoric, stating its response will be harsh, with whisperings that Iran and its proxies will target government buildings in Israel with drones, according to Bloomberg.

Joe Biden has stated its support for Israel is “ironclad”, thus dragging it further into the regional geopolitics of the Middle East.

Behind the mainstream media, the United States has asked Iran to show restraint through the Chinese, as has Russia. Iran responded by telling the United States to stay out of it.

Does Iran want to retaliate, or does it want to appear to have retaliated? Something will happen because Iran has said it will, and it can’t be seen to look weak. The question then becomes how this response looks, and what the effects are afterwards.

What does each side have to gain and lose if this conflict escalates? And who, if anybody, can pull us back from the brink?