The Global Questions Series: Number 3 – Power, Hegemony, Conflict, and War On Midgard

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Power Transition Theory

3. Hegemonic Stability Theory

4. The Four Models of Hegemonic Stability Theory

5. Why Hegemonies Collapse – Thucydides, His Pesky Trap, And The Arrival of Multipolarity

6. Generations of Warfare

7. The New Age of Warfare In A Multipolar World

8. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• We’re living in a period of increased geopolitical tension. The hegemony of the United States is being challenged, whether that be a function of US isolationism, rising powers, or a combination of both. We’ve lived through a period of relative peace during US hegemony, of which there are different models to describe this and other examples of hegemony (Easy, Accidental, Exploitative, Virtuous).

• However, those days are behind us. We now have to focus on the theories behind power transition. How do middle powers become great powers, and how do great powers rise to become dominant powers? How does this tie into the cycle of empires and their natural declines when they become overstretched?

• Once multipolarity arises after a period of hegemony ends, how do nations usually fight each other? The days of lined formations are behind us, but the field of warfare is changing. What types of war could we see implemented during this period of rising geopolitical tension? Perhaps cyber war, infrastructure war, or information war, among others. Find out more below on the overarching models and theories that are driving this period of geopolitics forward.

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Introduction

Last month, we started a discussion on US-China relations and how this will drive forward the field of geopolitics over the coming years and decades.

https://geopoliticsreport.substack.com/p/the-global-questions-series-number-6bb

Today, I’m going to discuss the general principles of geopolitical power, the nature of war, and how this is shifting.

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Power Transition Theory

In 1958, A.F.K. Organski proposed his theory regarding the nature of war and power in international relations. One of the key takeaways of the theory is the proposed hierarchy of states:

• Small Powers

• Middle Powers

• Great Powers

• Dominant Powers

Importantly, this model can describe the world order but also transfers to regional hierarchies. It's when nations are unhappy with their current position on their hierarchy that conflict and instability in the global system can occur. When there are no great power nations to challenge a dominant power, we can see the formation of a hegemony.

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Hegemonic Stability Theory

Hegemonic stability theory details the role a single dominant power plays in maintaining a regional or global system. The theory details that any tensions can be quashed by enforcing rules, managing crises, and providing public goods.

Power transition theory helps to explain why a hegemon can form. Hegemonic stability theory explains why having a single hegemon brings global stability.

The theory is strongly tied to Charles Kindleberger, who argued in his 1973 book on the Great Depression, that the economic chaos of the Depression led to the existence of no world leader with a dominant economy with which it could manage crises and provide public goods. After World War Two, the United States was relatively unchallenged, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, they weren’t challenged at all. They quashed tensions by enforcing rules, managing crises, and providing public goods, especially through the power of the dollar as the global reserve currency. This demonstrates Power Transition Theory and Hegemonic Stability Theory in action.

Photo by Sonder Quest on Unsplash

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The Four Models of Hegemonic Stability Theory

In recent research, a scholar of international relations has further broken down the model of hegemonic stability theory to include the concept of willingness. It's all well and good to have a world with one dominant power in a hegemonic system if the power in question doesn’t want to lead. This is especially relevant today, with Donald Trump’s isolationist, business-like approach to global relations. Outside the topic of Trump, however, the US is still re-evaluating its approaches to many parts of the world order, regardless of whether Trump becomes President once again in 2024 or not.

The four alternative interpretations of the Hegemonic Stability Theory are as follows: