The Global Questions Series: Number 10 - Israel-Hamas Scenario Analysis

Scenario Analysis Example

Contents

1. Introduction

2. An Example

3. Bayesian Statistics Model

4. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• Last month, I proposed the steps I take in my scenario analysis framework when I wish to analyse a deep issue in geopolitics.

• I’ve written this scenario analysis based on the current conflict between Israel and Hamas. I’ve written this as the previous month unfolded, and so it has been written prior to the pager attacks against Hezbollah, the death of Nasrallah, and Israel’s ground operation, although all are mentioned at some point in the piece.

• I’ll then finally tie this together with some probability theory. When analysing complex events such as this, there can be many events co-occurring. Take this conflict for example, if we see a period of increased diplomacy, it would be assumed that a ceasefire would be more likely. If we see an escalation, a ceasefire would be less likely. We can calculate the probabilities of events after some other event has unfolded using Bayes Theorem, which I will also explore today.

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Introduction

Last time in the Global Questions Series, I proposed my scenario analysis framework to explore the wide array of potential futures in geopolitical events. This time, I’m going to go through the process, highlighting the key steps, the questions I’ll ask myself, and the process I undertake to understand complex issues better. I’ll do this through an example based on the current conflict occurring in the Gaza Strip involving Israel and Hamas.

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An Example

As I alluded to earlier, let’s consider the scenario of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Who are the key players, what scenarios could unfold, and how can we use probabilities to better understand what is unfolding in the Middle East.

Photo by Taylor Brandon on Unsplash

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Step 1: How have scenarios between Israel and Hamas unfolded in the past?

• First Intifada (1987-1993) - Hamas were founded during this period between 1987 and 1993. This ended with the 1993 Oslo Accords and the creation of the Palestinian Authority.

• Second Intifada (2000-2005) - Ended in a stalemate. Hamas emerged stronger and gained a political win in the 2006 elections.

• Operation Cast Lead (2008-2009) - Significant destruction in Gaza. Ended with a unilateral Israeli ceasefire, with sporadic rocket attacks continuing regardless.

• Operation Pillar of Defence (2012) - After 8 days of fighting, an Egyptian ceasefire ended the conflict.

• Operation Protective Edge (2014) - Lasted 50 days. Ended in a ceasefire brokered by Egypt, yet underlying issues remained unsolved.

• Clashes in 2018 - Didn’t escalate into war but ceasefire agreements weren’t successful either. Often brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the UN.

• Operation Guardian of the Walls (2021) - Another Egyptian brokered ceasefire after 11 days of intense fighting.

• Israel-Hamas Current Conflict (2023 - Present)

Step 2: Could this scenario unfold in the same way as previously?