The 2024 Geopolitics Flashback
What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong, And The Biggest Stories This Year In Geopolitics
Contents
Introduction
My 2024 Predictions - What I Got Right and What I Got Wrong
The 2024 Geopolitics Timeline - Biggest Events Of The Year
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Around this time last year, I reviewed the year 2023 through the scope of geopolitics. It was a fun learning experience for me, and I hope any reader could gain something from the piece I wrote. This year, I’ve decided to do the same, noting what I predicted accurately, and where I was off the mark. Over time, through repeating this exercise, I hope to analyse geopolitical scenarios better and attribute what is most likely to occur probabilistically.
We had superpower geopolitics, Ukraine, the Middle East, and elections as a small selection of the largest geopolitical narratives that unfolded this year in 2024. I’ll explore how accurately I predicted these events, before providing a timeline of the biggest geopolitical events in 2024. Thursdays are usually paywalled, but as a Christmas present, enjoy this post in its entirety.
Introduction
Back in January 2024, I made my geopolitical predictions for the year ahead. Like all great learners, it’s prudent to reflect upon our mistakes. And so today, I will return to my predictions, and assess what I got correct, and where I fell short. I’ll also provide a timeline of the biggest geopolitical events of the year. I’ll use this list when constructing predictions for 2025, but I also find it useful to distort my sense of time by realising that events that I thought occurred years ago actually occurred this year. Let’s dive into assessing the last year of geopolitics.
My 2024 Predictions - What I Got Right and What I Got Wrong
Superpower Geopolitics Takes A Break - I suspected that China‘s economic troubles and the calming of superpower tensions from the 2023 APEC Summit would continue throughout 2024. Here we are at the end of 2024, and China’s stock market rose sharply a few weeks ago on a suspected second stimulus package. The United States has also been heavily focused on Ukraine before the change of Presidency in January, and of course, the Middle East stole headlines this year. Superpower geopolitics did indeed take a break in 2024.
The New Space Race Intensifies - I expected the geopolitical rush to reach the new high ground in space would intensify in 2024. Ultimately this wasn’t the case. China reached the dark side of the moon, but the United States recently delayed their Artemis missions until 2026 and 2027. The race is still slowly unfolding, but is the United States slipping behind? I’d argue the bigger trend emerging is the rush of private companies in the space race. SpaceX, Starlink, BlueOrigin, and Virgin Galactic continue their pursuits of capturing their territory of low-Earth orbit and the space surrounding our planet. We also saw the first private craft land on the moon. Last year, I stated we need regulation to avoid clashes in space. This still stands, especially with Russia vetoing the UN resolution to not allow nuclear weapons in space, and their suspected launching of an anti-satellite weapon. This realm of warfare would be one I’d expect to become a main geopolitical talking point when a greater presence by the superpowers in space is felt. As of today, we aren’t there yet, but this trend is one we should continue to monitor.
Elections Will Alter The Structure of Our World Order - We are living through periods of elevated geopolitical tension. Forecasters such as Ray Dalio and David Murrin have concluded that during elections, this tension can often reflect itself in the rise of populist candidates. As many around the world are unhappy with living standards, I expect this to continue as tensions still remain elevated, domestically and regionally. At the end of last year, I received a comment as I discussed elections. The commenter stated: “Countries don’t vote, people do”. This year, people certainly voted. Being from the UK, I suspected the fall of the Tories, which did occur to the benefit of Labour. I also concluded that I didn’t see Maduro in Venezuela holding free and fair elections, which he didn’t. This went as far as the United States recently recognising the opposition leader as the true leader in Venezuela. Putin in Russia and Modi in India won their respective elections as suspected. Putin hoped to create a unifying image of strength, founded in support for the conflict in Ukraine, and Modi sought to solidify his and the BJP’s strength in Indian politics. I didn’t predict Modi’s BJP would lose an outright individual majority, but they did win as part of a coalition government. In the biggest election of the year, many were predicting a Harris win, even as the signs were there that Trump was performing well in the swing states. What was deemed to be a close election beforehand saw a Republican sweep and Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In looking towards 2025, countless geopolitical scenarios and occurrences will have to consider the effects that the new president could have upon them.
The Battles For Geopolitical Regional Supremacy - I expected changes to domestic and regional geopolitics due to elections, the conflict in Ukraine, and the issues in the Middle East that started in October 2023. I expected Ukraine to continue in this stalemated war of attrition with little ground made by either side, but I didn’t expect the direct clashes between Israel and Iran, and neither did I expect the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. I certainly didn’t predict North Korean troops would make their way to fight in the Kursk region. Yet, the general battle of regional geopolitical influence continues and will continue into 2025.
Photo by Steve Barker on Unsplash The Multipolar World Continues Its Construction - This trend will continue for years to come in geopolitics. When the United States confiscated Russian foreign exchange reserves held in dollars after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, countries around the world opened their eyes to the immense power the dollar holds, and the vulnerability to existing on the wrong side of the United States and the dollar. Anybody implying the dollar will fade into irrelevancy this year is making ludicrous claims. Even anybody claiming the dollar will fade into the background in this decade is making too bold a claim in my opinion. The dollar is entrenched in global trade and will continue to be for decades, especially since many countries hold large amounts of U.S. treasuries, and the global reserve currency allows for much easier global trade. The point I make here is that the effect this confiscation has on the world is irreversible, and attitudes towards the dollar have shifted. Especially for those nations who are most vulnerable, they will continue to build this alternative world system. Russia will especially continue to lead this charge after they were expelled from many U.S.-led systems such as SWIFT. This year’s BRICS Summit was held in Kazan in Russia with many new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE), and many features of building a new global system were mentioned, including BRICS Pay and an eventual BRICS currency. Funnily enough, the current strategy of utilising other currencies to trade and then swapping currencies for gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange is functioning wonderfully for any nation trading with China. This system won’t be built tomorrow, but the idea is all the fuel it needs to continue its slow buildout.
The 2024 Geopolitics Timeline - Biggest Events Of The Year
Below is a rather lengthy list of the biggest events that occurred this year in geopolitics. It is in chronological order, starting in January and ending with key news events from the last few weeks. In constructing this list, it certainly made it clear to me that a lot can occur in a year in the world of geopolitics.
Ethiopia and Somaliland’s Memorandum of Understanding - Recognition For Port Access
Islamic State Attack At Ceremony For Qassem Soleimani Kills Over 100
UAE Broker Russia-Ukraine Prisoner Swap
Gabriel Attal Becomes Youngest-Ever French Prime Minister
Norway First Country To Approve Commercial Deep Sea Mining
South Africa Takes Israel To The International Court of Justice For Genocide in Gaza
Nauru Stops Recognising Taiwan
Iran Launched Missiles Into Pakistan’s Balochistan Region
Chinese Population Falls By 2.08M In Previous Year
Russia Commences Building First Lead-Cooled Fast Neutron Reactor
Pakistan Responds To Iran Missile Attack, Hitting Militants In The Sistan-Baluchestan Province of Iran
Turkey Approved Sweden’s NATO Bid
U.S. Approves $24B Of F-16s For Turkey
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger Announce They Will Leave ECOWAS
Three U.S. Troops Killed In Jordan Drone Attack
Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan Jailed For 14 Years For Corruption
Tucker Carlson Interviews Vladimir Putin
United States Top Trade Partner Becomes Mexico
President Aliyev Wins Presidency In Azerbaijan
Putin Visits Turkey, First Trip To A NATO Member Since Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Turkey’s Erdogan Visits Egypt For First Time In 12 Years, Seeking Improved Ties
The U.S. To Build Five New Based In Somalia
Turkey and Somalia Announce Defence Deal
Japan’s Nikkei Hits All-Time High
Intuitive Machines Odysseus Lander Lands On The Moon - First Private Craft To Reach The Moon
Alexei Navalny Dies In Russian Custody
Hungarian Parliament Approves Sweden’s NATO Bid
Transnistria Requests Annexation By Russia
Four Submarine Communication Cables Damaged In The Red Sea
US Supreme Court Rejects Colorado’s Attempt To Ban Trump From Election Ballot
Haiti Announces State of Emergency After Large Jailbreak
China and The Maldives Announce Military Pact
Moldova Signs Defence Pact With France
Vladimir Putin Wins Russian Election
Canada Halts Future Arms Sales To Israel
Terrorist Attack In Russia Claimed By ISIS-K Kills 145 People
U.S. Awards $1.5B To Restart Palisades Nuclear Plant In Michigan
Israel Attacks Iranian Consulate In Syria, Killing High-Ranking IRGC Members
Chinese Warships Spotted At Cambodian Naval Base
Biden and Xi Share Phone Call, First Since APEC Discussion
California Announces $6B Transmission Grid Upgrade Plan
Zelenskyy Visits Lithuania For The Three Seas Summit
Iran Launches Aerial Attack On Israel Directly For The First Time
U.S. Reimposes Oil Sanctions on Venezuela
Three Drones Sighted Over Isfahan, Iran
Armenia Agrees To Give Four Villages To Azerbaijan
Russia Vetoes UN Vote For Nuclear Weapons In Space
U.S. Senate Passes Russia Uranium Import Ban
Xi Jinping Visits Paris
Israel Takes Control of Rafah Crossing
Ireland, Slovenia, and Spain Recognise The Palestinian State
Moldova and EU Sign Security Pact
Slovak PM Robert Fico Shot
Iranian President Raisi and Foreign Minister Die In Helicopter Crash
Riots In New Caledonia Over Voting Reform Sees Azeri Flags Waved
U.S. Suspects Russia Launched Anti-Satellite Weapon Into Space
China Lands Craft On The Dark Side Of The Moon
Mexico Elects First Female President With Claudia Sheinbaum Victory
Modi Wins Indian Election
Trump Found Guilty Of 34 Counts of Falsifying Business Records
Lone Gunman Attacks US Embassy In Beirut
Saudi Delegation Travels To Ethiopia To Discuss Investment, Trade, and Relations
Gantz and Eisenkot Leave Israeli War Cabinet
Macron Calls Snap French Elections
Russia Begins Naval and Air Exercises In The Caribbean
Four U.S. Teachers Stabbed In China
Hunter Biden Convicted For Lying About Drug Use On Gun Licence
Malawi Vice President Dies In Plane Crash
Ukraine-Japan and Ukraine-US Both Sign 10-Year Security Agreements
China Offers Australia A Panda For Diplomacy
China Clashes With Philippine Vessel In South China Sea
Putin Takes Trip To North Korea
Russia and North Korea Sign Mutual Defence Pact
Israeli Officials Approve Plans For Lebanon Offensive
Armenia Ordered Howitzers From France
Putin Visits Vietnam
Armenia Recognises Palestine
US Gaza Pier Dismantled
Ukraine Missile Attack on Sevastopol Kills 4
Julian Assange Returns To Australia After Plea Deal
Bolivia Foils Military Coup Attempt
Labour Wins UK Election
Trump Assassination Attempt
Kenyan Forces Begin Patrols In Haiti
Israel Hits Ports In Yemen After Missile Attack On Tel Aviv
Philippines and China Reach Deal Over Disputed Shoal
Joe Biden Pulled Out Of U.S. Election Race
China Hosts Hamas and Fatah In Beijing
Netanyahu Speech In U.S. Congress
SEC Approves Ethereum ETF
Putin Meets With Syria’s Assad
Iran and Armenia Expected To Have Signed $500M Arms Deal
Hamas Leader Haniyeh Killed In Tehran
Head of Hamas Military Wing Confirmed Killed In Airstrike
Protests In Venezuela After Maduro Wins Election
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Resigns and Flees The Country
Kamala Harris Chooses Tim Walz As Running Mate
Nigeria Arrests Seven Polish Nationals For Raising Russian Flags At Protests
U.S. Lifts Ban On Offensive Weapons Sales To Saudi Arabia
Riots Commence In The UK
Elon Musk Interviews Donald Trump
Turkey and Iraq Sign Memorandum of Understanding On Military and Security Cooperation
AfD In Germany Win First State Election Since WW2
Turkey Bids To Join BRICS
Putin Visits Mongolia
Turkey Announces Arrest of Mossad Agent
Michel Barnier Becomes New French Prime Minister
U.S. Plans Iraq Withdrawal By 2026
Germany Tightens Border Controls
Harris-Trump Debate
Russia Expels Six British Diplomats
China Raises Retirement Age
Three U.S. Citizens Sentenced To Death In Congo For Failed Coup
Trump Golf Course Assassination Attempt
Exploding Pager Attack Launched On Hezbollah
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates By 50 Basis Points
Microsoft To Reopen Three Mile Island In Pennsylvania
Qatar Joins US Visa Waiver Program
China Launches Stimulus Program
Corruption Charges Launched Against New York Mayor Eric Adams
IMF Approves $7B Loan To Pakistan
France Calls For Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil To Be Added To UN Security Council
Saudi Arabia Scraps $100 Per Barrel Oil Price Target. Changes Strategy To Gain Market Share
Starlink Reaches 4 Million Subscribers
Israel Kill Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah
U.S. East Coast Port Strike Begins
Iran Launches Second Direct Attack of The Year On Israel
UK To Transfer Sovereignty of Chagos Islands To Mauritius
Russia To Reopen Embassy In Yemen Next Year
Israel’s Finance Minister Calls For Israel’s Borders To Be Extended To Damascus
SpaceX Catches Rocket Booster
China Holds Military Drills Around Taiwan
NATO Holds Steadfast Noon Exercises
Canada Expels Top Indian Diplomats Over Sikh Assassination Issue
Google Signs Deal With Kairos Power To Buy Nuclear Power From SMRs
U.S. Gives Israel 30-Day Ultimatum On Increasing Gaza Aid, Before Backtracking
Nigeria Fuel Tanker Accident Killed At Least 147
Italy Imposes Full Arms Embargo On Israel
Israeli Tanks Fire On UN Positions In Lebanon
Hamas Leader Sinwar Killed In Gaza
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Meet In Pakistan
Explosion In Myanmar Damages Chinese Consulate
Moldova Says Yes In EU Referendum
US Intelligence Leak
India and China Border Deal Reached
BRICS Summit Starts In Kazan
Terrorist Attack On Ankara Sees Five Killed
Iran and Saudi Arabia Hold Drills In The Sea of Oman
Israel Attacks Iran Military Assets
Kurdistan Democratic Party Wins Parliamentary Election In Semi-Autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq
NVIDIA To Replace Intel In Dow Jones
Floods In Spain Leave Over 200 Dead
Tories Pick Kemi Badenoch As New Tory Party Leader
Donald Trump Wins US Election
German Government Collapses
Netanyahu Fires Defence Minister Yoav Gallant
North Korean Troops Suspected In Russia’s Kursk Region
COP 29 Held In Baku
China Builds New Port In Peru
Baltic Cable Sabotaged
ICC Issue Arrest Warrants For Benjamin Netanyahu and Former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant
Israel and Lebanon Agree Ceasefire
Putin and Scholz Share Phone Call
American Investor Seeking To Buy Nord Stream 2
French Government Collapses Again
U.S. Approves Ukrainian Use of ATACMS On Russia
Russia Launches Oreshnik Missile on Dnipro, Ukraine
China-US Prisoner Swap Deal
Former British Soldier Caught Spying For Iran
Trump Meets Trudeau
BTC Hits $100K
Lavrov On Tucker Carlson
Protests In Georgia
Romanian Constitutional Court Annuls Election After Suspected Russian Interference
South Korea Imposes Martial Law
The Collapse of the Syrian Government
Israel Pushing Into Syria
Hunter Biden Pardoned By President Joe Biden
Google Show Willow Quantum Processor
Japan To Restart Shimane Nuclear Power Plant
Israel Closes Embassy In Ireland
Israel To Expand Settlements In The Golan Heights
Russia Air Lifting Air Defences From Syria to Libya
Turkey Amasses Troops On Syrian Border
I’m aware this list appears rather extensive, but in narrowing down a year of news in geopolitics and other related fields, I’d argue it’s worth consuming to discover the underlying trends we’ve seen unfold this year. We’ve seen the shifts in attitude towards Israel and escalation in Ukraine. We’ve seen pacts, deals, and memorandums of understanding formed in the background that will determine alliances moving forward into next year and beyond. I truly believe every point above is important for reflecting on this year, and learning lessons that can help us form opinions and scenarios as we move into 2025. Over the next few weeks, that’s exactly what I’ll do.
Concluding Remarks
I hope everybody around the world has an enjoyable end to the year. I’ll be back next Monday with my lessons from 2024 post, and I’ll also include my 2024 Reading List. As stated above, I’ll then dive into my 2025 predictions as we enter a new year.
Thanks for reading! I’d greatly appreciate it if you were to like or share this post with others! If you want more then subscribe on Substack for these posts directly to your email inbox. I research history, geopolitics, and financial markets to understand the world and the people around us. If any of my work helps you be more prepared and ease your mind, that’s great. If you like what you read please share with others.
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