Solar Masterclass - Part 3
Solar Power Reliability, Durability, Flexibility, and Resource Availability
Contents
Introduction
Reliability of Solar
Durability of Solar
Flexibility of Solar
Resource Availability of Solar
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
When we consider clean electricity production methods, solar will be one of the first to pop into your head. It's only reliable when the sun is shining, but that still makes it a reliable aspect of the clean energy transition. To maximize the life of a solar panel, it’s important to use high-quality parts, such as good batteries and inverters.
Considering durability and the percentage of solar panels that fail is debated, with some as low as 0.05%, and others estimating 0.18% of solar panels failing every year.
Solar panels can also be built in a variety of locations, including on residential buildings, on rural land, and in some circumstances, in more urban settings. More on this next week!
Finally, it’s important that we can source the raw materials required for the construction of our solar panels. Silicon is used in 95% of solar panels, and access to materials used in more innovative solar panels we discussed in part 1 is difficult to come by. It's of vital importance that countries wishing to clean up their environments secure their supply of silicon. Currently, that means interacting with China, Russia, or some other smaller players. This will have geopolitical implications. Continue reading to find out more below.
Introduction
In the penultimate section of my solar masterclass, we’ll cover the reliability, durability, flexibility, and resource availability of solar power and related concepts.
Reliability - Regarding clean electricity production resources, solar is one of the most reliable. An addendum is that the panel only produces electricity when in direct contact with sunlight, so again considering the environment in which to utilize solar panels is important. To increase reliability, it’s important to use high-quality parts. Using good charge controllers, batteries, and inverters can ensure you continue to receive electricity from your solar panels for as long as possible. As we’ve discussed before, batteries vary in chemical components and efficiency, and so their reliability at storing excess electricity differs. The inverters are a point of weakness. An inverter converts direct current into alternating current for personal use. While solar panels last 20+ years, the mean time between failure of an inverter is 1.65 years according to research by Cheng, Tang, and Yu. Research has been done on individual parts of a solar panel using a variety of mathematical methods, including Monte Carlo and Markov Models.
My mind then wonders towards the reliability of aspects of the electrical system connected to solar panels. Could solar panels on an individual residential building allow the consumer greater reliability of electricity supply? In regions that experience brownouts and blackouts, any alternative electricity production methods, no matter how small, give you more options, regardless of location. This is dependent on personal circumstances, of course, but for some, the control over their own electricity supply through solar panels could be something many aspire to possess. Reliability can often be assessed through monitoring technology, which should be checked frequently to ensure the continued reliable performance of the photovoltaic cells.
Durability - In a 2017 study by the U.S. Department of Energy, the failure rate of solar panels was found to be 0.05%. This accounts for 1 in every 2000 panels. This study also occurred on panels installed between 2005 and 2015. Alternative research states a failure rate of 0.18%, still very low. The failure rates are based on a year.
We’ve come a long way since then with exciting new solar panel innovations discussed in part 1. Further improvements could have been made regarding solar panel durability. Finally, solar panels feature no moving parts. In general, this reduces wear and tear on equipment used versus wind turbines, for example. It can also be down to the owner how durable their solar panels are. Proper cleaning and maintenance techniques can ensure solar panels remain functional for longer. In rare cases, extreme weather can damage solar panels, specifically overexposure to heat or humidity. They are constructed to withstand such conditions, but over time, degradation is possible.
Flexibility - Solar panels can be used in a variety of locations. The question that should arise is whether it’s beneficial financially to place solar panels in a specific location. What is the payback period of an operating solar panel? Alone, a singular installed solar panel has limited flexibility. As part of a diverse grid, it allows the consumer of electricity greater flexibility, especially when coupled with suitable storage devices.
Resource Availability - Firstly, solar panels find themselves at the whims of the availability of sunlight. This is well-known as the concept of intermittency, so let’s instead explore the availability of materials needed for solar panels. As discussed in Part 1 on efficiency and innovation, some materials such as gallium arsenide are more difficult to extract than silicon used in traditional solar panels. Issues such as this slow the development of economies of scale in new innovative solar panels and ensure the continued reign of silicon-based solar panels currently. Availability of resources and resource protectionism could contribute to higher manufacturing prices for solar panels if source materials are fought over or become more scarce.
As for silicon sources, China produced 6.6 million metric tonnes in 2023. The next closest? Russia with 620 thousand metric tonnes. Brazil, Norway, Iceland, Kazakhstan, and France make up the next five countries.
11 grams of silicon is typically used per cell, and a residential rooftop can see 60 cells used in some instances. This is 660 grams (0.00066 metric tonnes) of silicon per household, only considering residential at this moment. China alone could construct 60-cell solar panel arrangements for 10,000,000,000 (10 billion) homes. This, of course, is more than enough for one home per person on the entire planet. But, Russia, if restricted to their own production, could construct 60-cell arrangements for approximately 939,393,939 homes (939 million, 393 thousand, and 939). We aren’t limited to residential buildings, however. Solar panels could be used for commercial, industrial, and eventually with electric vehicle buildout, the transport sectors. All before considering the new space race, in which solar-based electricity will be a key aspect, as seen on the ISS. In a few weeks, I’ll dive deeper into the mathematics of solar panels, but here is a small snippet to get us started.
It seems like we have an abundant supply of silicon. But it’s important to consider trade and technology wars seen, especially between geopolitical superpowers as we see with the United States and China. Export limitations and rising geopolitical tensions have the potential to see the weaponisation of resources critical to the clean energy transition. It’s not a given that this occurs, but it’s a potential scenario, and we’re all about considering and preparing for potential scenarios. And this is considering one resource. There exist many others critical to the clean energy transition. China restricted exports of germanium and gallium last year - both have uses in the semiconductor industry, another vital industry in the technological innovation potential of upcoming years.
Concluding Remarks
Next week will conclude the solar masterclass with part 4. This will cover adaptability, safety, security, social acceptance, regulation, and policy adherence. Come back next week for the final section of my solar masterclass.
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