Short Form Saturdays - 29th April 2023
Thoughts of the Week
Too Much Information - I’ve decided to take a week off this week. I’ve got a lot of ideas about potential future endeavours through Geopolitics Explained and I want to think them through. We think best when we’re undistracted, or even bored. Creativity can come in so many forms. It could come when we’re walking down the street, eating a meal, or with friends. But to just sit, be still, and let the mind wander is when I find I have my best and deepest ideas. And it feels very restful, and rest is great! We’ve all got to rest, it’s valuable to maintaining high-level performance in anything we do. So just let yourself sit and be bored sometimes.
This also led to a connection with my game theory discussion on information. To form perfect or complete information about any topic takes time. Even then, our biases and knowledge gaps can get in the way. So be patient when acquiring information on any topic or endeavour. It will come to you when it’s supposed to. Cramming information won’t allow it to seep into your long-term memory. Less information coupled with greater value is better. It’s a trend I hope to see established in the world. Everything is getting too complicated, and simple is good.
I spoke last week about the loss of information because I deleted all the notes I’ve made from podcasts and thoughts I’ve had in the month of April. Upon further reflection, it’s allowed me to clear my mind and revisit thoughts I had in the past that could have turned into something but didn’t because I was too caught up in my own productivity. This highlighted the importance of truly doing nothing sometimes, for clarity of thought. I try to take Sundays off completely every week. I have no tasks to do, I just do whatever I want to do all day. The events of the last few weeks helped me recognise the importance of this.
Blog of the Week
What if Oil Exports are Halted from Sudan? - Anas Alhajji - Substack
Song of the Week
Alco - Half Moon Run
Spotify Link:
YouTube Link:
Current Reading
Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio - I’ve been re-reading this due to its prevalence in today’s financial markets. Ray Dalio discusses the business cycle, the big debt cycle, the deflationary deleveraging cycle and the inflationary deleveraging cycle. He details the stages that typically unfold in both deflationary deleveraging cycles and inflationary deleveraging cycles within the long-term debt cycle.
Stages of Deflationary Depressions:
Early Stage
Bubble
The Top
The Depression
The Beautiful Deleveraging
“Pushing On A String”
Normalisation
Stages of Inflationary Depressions:
Early Stage
Bubble
The Top and Currency Defence
The Depression
Normalisation
His work is the best at using historical patterns and cycles to locate differences in present-day situations we find ourselves in, and attempt to forecast how these will unfold. I’d highly recommend all his books. If you download the Principles app, you get Principles: Life and Work included in the app for free. You can also receive the PDF of Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises here:
https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises
Film of the Week
Nobody - Action Film - Netflix Starring Bob Odenkirk
Take of the Week
Gen Z Isn’t Behind in Purchasing Houses vs Previous Generations - With takes of the week, I’m looking for points that aren’t necessarily correct or incorrect, but that could incite a deep discussion. This point by Noah Smith struck me as one such point.
Podcast of the Week
The Memo by Howard Marks - Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank: