REPOST: The Winter War: How Finland Dealt With The Soviets
Original post from October 7th, 2022.
In November 1939, the Soviet Union invaded Finland in what is known as the Winter War.
In this situation, the underdog won (or did they?). Here’s how Finland dealt with the Soviets, and how it can be applied in Ukraine today.
Throughout history, underdogs win wars in a few ways:
1) Outside support, through weapons, or sanctions that have the desired effect.
2) Taking advantage of the home territory (underdog) land that it knows better.
3) When the enemy can go home, but the underdog is fighting for their lives with nowhere to flee.
Keep these points in mind, and see if you can apply them to any other wars where the underdog won. This also ties in with proxy wars, which have been the way that powerful countries have fought since WW2. Think Vietnam, Syria, and now Ukraine.
Now, why would the Soviet Union invade Finland? The Soviet Union was the biggest land-covering empire at the time, and they wanted more territory. Before the invasion, the Finns and Russians held negotiations three times. All three meetings were the Soviets demanding more territory by pushing the border further into Finland. The Soviets also wanted islands in the Gulf of Finland. Back then the Soviets had the powerful Red Army. They were known for fighting in the most extreme of environments.
Finland declared its independence in 1917. Before this, it had been Russian territory under the Grand Duchy of Finland. The Grand Duchy was the official head of the state of Finland but was under Russian control. This led to certain levels of mistrust between the two. Finland knew the Soviet Union wanted to expand, and the Soviets feared Finland would be used to get close to Russia. From here other enemies could launch an attack from Finnish territory. This fear in Soviet eyes was further deepened by Finnish neutrality in 1939.
Russia’s goal in Geopolitics is to increase the distance between its borders and Moscow or to push its borders to natural barriers. Heard of the Carpathian Mountains? Looks like the Russians think it would be a nice place for a border, hence the invasion of Ukraine.
The Soviet Union bombed guard posts on its own border with Finland, faking an incident and giving them a supposed reason to invade Finland. The Soviets weren’t quite prepared for the Finnish winter and environment.
The Finns were outnumbered but used what they had to their advantage. The Finns used their territory to their advantage. They knew it better, knew how to defend it and where best to take advantage. The Finns hoped for support, especially from Sweden, The Brits and France. But, little support came for the Finns in the end. They were on their own.
They defended for three months, but the power tipped in the direction of the Soviets. More modern equipment and a new organisational structure re-energized the Red Army. By February 1940, the Finnish Army was overrun. Finland signed the Treaty of Moscow on 12th March 1940, and 10% of its territory was under Soviet control.
Karelian question. (2022, August 22). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question
Now, why do I class this as a win? Well, we prepare for the long term here. In the end, Finland was independent of Russian control and remained neutral until this year, when it finally pivoted to NATO. Was this what Russia wanted to avoid all along and what the Finns wanted all along? Again, Russia has potential enemies (NATO) on their borders, with no natural defence. Were Finnish NATO aspirations forced by Russian aggression in Ukraine? Most probably as the public support for NATO membership rose after the invasion. Finland played the long game.
On another side note, Germany started an undeclared war on Czechoslovakia in 1938. The leaders of the UK, France and Italy gave the territory to Germany under the Munich Agreement. This weakness made it easier for Germany to try to establish further power in Europe without the fear of strong repercussions. It did this through its Poland invasion in 1939 and the start of World War Two. Countries taking territory of other countries must be taken seriously. It must be handled so we don’t fall into a similar cycle now.
So what can be done about the annexed Ukraine territories that Russia claims as their own? They could take a leaf out of the Finnish book and concede some territory to stop the war if that could be classed as a win. This especially has a bigger precedent ruling over it now with nuclear weapons involved. One key point is the Russian army isn’t as mighty now as the Red Army was back then. Their machinery is ageing, and they do look beatable. But again, nuclear weapons. You shouldn't poke an angry bear stuck in a corner. That’s the phrase, right?
As I said, the Russians need to expand their borders in their eyes. They would not retreat from the Ukraine war without being able to take some “win” away from it. They could get this through the annexed territories. I’m not saying this is right, but Russia won’t be humiliated and taking the annexed territories as its own is how it can “win”. In the long term, Russian population demographics mean it will lose, but that’s a story for another day.
Credit to:
https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/a-short-history-of-the-winter-war
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61397478
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Russia invaded Ukraine to protect and defend those in the Donbass that have been being slaughtered by Kiev since the US instigated Maidan coup . to think otherwise is a fallacy.