REPOST: 11 Key Border Disputes In Geopolitics
REPOST: 11 Key Border Disputes In Geopolitics
Originally posted on 25th September 2022.
I was going to edit and update this post. But then decided against it. I think it’s interesting to flashback to exactly where my mind was at the time of these border disputes and conflicts.
1) Armenia and Azerbaijan
A few weeks ago, Nancy Pelosi visited Armenia to show support, while Turkey is a key vocal ally of Azerbaijan. The Nagorno-Karabakh region is recognised as Azerbaijan land, but the majority of the population is Armenian. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region declared independence and a year-long war followed. At its end in 1994, Armenia controlled most of the region. Yet, in 2020, Turkish-backed Azerbaijan reclaimed much of the Nagorno-Karabakh area. Russia acted as a peacekeeper and organised a cease-fire, enforced by Russian peacekeepers. Now Russia is preoccupied elsewhere, will China take over the peacekeeping efforts?
2) Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
Another conflict from the former Soviet sphere. At its collapse when borders were established, communities had property and resource access that ended up on the other side of the border. The conflicts over land are about water for irrigation and land space for animals. The border is 971km. 471km of this is disputable. This conflict will continue until agreements about the natural resources of the area and access to them are proposed.
3) Russia and Ukraine (and Georgia)
Dubbed the biggest conflict seen since World War Two. NATO expansion into former Soviet states led to fear in Russia. This is because they like the distance between Moscow and its European borders, which they currently don’t have. This is the main cause of the war from Russia’s side. Ukraine is now the site of a war against Russia where the West is throwing billions in weapons support. Also, other countries are announcing their disapproval of how the war is unfolding, including Xi and Modi. The Russia and Ukraine war will continue to remain the most covered conflict in the news. Sometimes this can make it difficult to find what’s true and what’s not.
4) India and China
India and China have a border in the Himalayas that is disputed. At first, I didn’t understand why a border at that altitude was useful, but new infrastructure is being built on both sides. India is building a road to an air base they have in the mountains. The countries have a lot of trade and sovereign links through BRICS. At the start of September, troops on both sides pulled away from the border with tensions de-escalating.
5) Bangladesh and Myanmar
Myanmar is trying to goad Bangladesh into a conflict. Airspace violations, mortars, and bullets originating in Myanmar have ended up over the border. Many Rohingyas fled from Myanmar to Bangladesh in 2017 due to ethnic cleansing by Myanmar’s army. One issue is if any of the Rohingya refugees did return to Myanmar, that they wouldn’t be persecuted.
6) China and Taiwan
7) Russia and Japan
The Kuril Islands are an archipelago of 56 islands North of Japan and South of Russia. The dispute over who had rights to the land led to Russia and Japan never signed a peace treaty with each other to formalize the end of World War Two.
This year, Russia withdrew an agreement allowing Japanese fishermen access to the islands. Japan has to pay for this access and they're not adhering to the financial agreement was the reason given.
Military drills and taking small digs at the other side seem to be the main framework for this tension. This currently implies little escalation will occur, especially with Russia fighting in Ukraine.
8) Iran and Iraq
The Iran-Iraq War occurred from 1980-1988. Iraq invaded Iran with shelling being the first act of the war. Iraq aimed to take advantage of political tension and military weakness in Iran. This was caused by the Iranian Revolution in the years before the beginning of the war. The war was a stalemate with both sides suffering heavy losses, in a war that saw the first use of chemical warfare since World War One. Tensions between the two countries remain high today. The Persian Gulf is a key source of global oil production, making it one of the most important geopolitical locations in the world. Without the energy produced in the Persian Gulf, or if less was produced because of a war, a lot of the world would suffer.
9) Israel and Syria
The Syrian civil war started in 2011. Protests against the government of Bashar al-Assad were met with increasing force. Massive numbers of refugees have fled since 2011, with the 2021 figure of 6.8 million refugees and asylum seekers (32.26% of the 2011 population). Iran and Russia support this government. The US, UK, France, and Turkey are against the government. This leads to Syria being deemed as a proxy war. The presence of the Islamic State in Syria since 2011 has also created more tensions in the territory due to the fight against terrorism.
Israel shares a border with Syria, which explains its involvement and its actions to protect its own security on this border. Israel does not want this proxy war to turn into an active conflict between the two sides of opinion. Turkey shares a border with Syria and finds itself in a similar situation.
10) North Korea and South Korea
After World War Two, the Soviets occupied the territory that is known as North Korea today. The US controlled the South. The intention was to unite both sides. The Soviets introduced a communist regime in the North, and the US introduced democracy in the South. In June 1950, the North invaded the South. The United Nations also backed the South, and China also got involved with support for the North. In 1954, negotiations reached no conclusion. The border between the two countries is where the front lines were positioned. Tensions between North Korea and the US remain high.
In 2018, an inter-Korean summit was held, with another in the future being planned at this meeting with an undecided date. This has improved communication between the two halves of Korea. Could reunification or peace be on the cards in the future?
11) Greece and Turkey
Both Greece and Turkey are members of NATO. Tensions between the two arise from questioned control over islands in the Aegean Sea. Turkey says Greece is occupying demilitarised islands. Other issues are resources in the Mediterranean, with Turkey starting gas exploration of the area last month.
Turkey has stated that Greek air defences have locked onto their jets. The Aegean Islands were given to Greece under the 1923 and 1947 treaties. One condition of these treaties was that these islands aren’t armed.
The US lifted its Cyprus arms embargo last week. Not one of the Aegean Islands but is under Greek sovereignty even though its position is closer to Turkey. This could lead to the militarisation that Turkey is so worried about.
With both countries involved in NATO, could this potential conflict leave to one leaving? Turkey continues to grow in importance in the world of Geopolitics, as it pivots toward China and its Belt and Road initiative. The new railroad through Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan also heads through Turkey.
Thanks for reading! If you want more like this then follow me on Twitter or Medium or subscribe on Substack for these posts directly to your email inbox. I write and research geopolitics and financial markets to organise my own thoughts and prepare myself for anything I can control. If any of this helps you to be more prepared and ease your mind, then that’s great. If you like what you read please share it with others. Have a good week.
Geopolitics Database: https://www.geopoliticsexplained.co.uk/geopoliticsdatabase-access
Geopolitics Explained Podcast: https://www.geopoliticsexplained.co.uk/geopol-podcast
or listen here:
If you enjoy the books I breakdown, you can purchase them here, along with affiliate links to the books and a 30-day free trial of Audible:
www.geopoliticsexplained.co.uk/book-takeaways
If you like what I do here, please like or share this post. You can also buy me a coffee or the next book I can discuss in the current reading section: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/geopoliticsexp