Global Questions - Number 14: More Key Geopolitical Principles

26 More Principles To Determine Why Geopolitical Actors Behave The Way They Do

Contents

1. Introduction

2. More Geopolitical Principles

3. Which Principles Could Change As The World Changes?

4. Which Principles Hinder Us?

5. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• A principle is a fundamental truth or proposition that acts as a foundation for a system of belief or behaviour. In geopolitics, determining any fundamental truth can be difficult. I stated this exact definition last month when I revealed the first 26 geopolitical principles I have formulated. Today, I shall reveal 26 more.

• It is also worth exploring how principles change as the world changes. The Internet will have changed the geopolitical principles that geopolitical actors adhere to, as will many other dramatic shifts that will occur during our lifetimes. Hence, as well as exploring the geopolitical principles of today, I will seek to predict some of the geopolitical principles of tomorrow.

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Introduction

In last month’s edition of the Global Questions Series, I proposed 26 geopolitical principles that countries of the past and present could adhere to. Today, I’m going to reveal 26 more principles, as well as explore which principles could fade into the background as the world changes, or which principles actually hinder us more than they help us. Let’s dive in.

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More Principles of Geopolitics

1. Deterrence By Denial - Seeks to prevent geopolitical rivals from enacting hostile strategies against each other by making their objectives unachievable. This is often achieved through defensive measures, such as a strong military, cyber resilience, or adaptability. If a geopolitical actor makes aggression against them inconvenient or outright impossible, then a conflict will be prevented.

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2. Strategic Depth - How much variability does a country have to absorb and respond to threats? This can be geographic, in the case of Russia and defending Moscow throughout history. The larger a geographic buffer zone, the more comfortable they feel. This strategic depth could also be economic, self-sufficiency, or political stability. In a sentence, it is a nation’s ability to withstand shocks.

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3. Alliance Hedging - Nations maintain relations with multiple powers to avoid overdependence on any one nation. Middle powers such as India, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are key examples of this today, and these states maximise their security and economic benefits without suffering the negativity of a zero-sum geopolitical conflict.

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4. Decoupling - The deliberate separation of economic, tech, or general geopolitical relations between nations, often to reduce dependency. The US-China relationship is undergoing a decoupling, especially after the United States confiscated Russian FX reserves at the onset of the Ukraine War. China still holds large amounts of FX reserves in United States Dollars via treasuries, and they wanted to limit the damage a similar move against them could cause. Today, this decoupling is also clear in semiconductors and rare earth elements. In the pursuit of protection, decoupling can risk trade inefficiencies, supply disruptions, and fragmentation that can contribute to rising tensions and worsening relations.

Photo by Alexander Mils on Unsplash