Geopolitics Review Extra - 5th June 2025

The Donald Diaries: A Deal With Iran And More Middle East Updates

Contents

1. Introduction

2. US-Iran Nuclear Deals

3. New Talks

4. Room For Future Deals

5. Israel Closes Its Ears

6. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• Starting in April, we’ve seen five talks between the United States and Iran, as they seek a potential nuclear deal. Although there are some promising signs, the negative rhetoric from both sides still remains.

• Iran is currently experiencing economic and energy crises, both of which incentivise it to pursue a deal here. But this deal will have to be favourable in the eyes of the Iranians. If the U.S. asks too much, such as zero enrichment, a potential deal could be upended.

• With this deal, how are other nations in the Middle East reacting? Specifically, how is Israel responding to these talks? Also, how does Syria fit into this story? We saw the United States raise a flag at their embassy in Damascus last week, but how are battles for influence continuing to unfold there?

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Introduction

The Middle East remains one of the most geopolitically volatile regions on the planet. Is there room to reduce some of this volatility via a US-Iran nuclear deal? Also, as is usually the case in the Middle East, other countries are involved here. How is Israel responding to such a deal, and how is Syria’s story developing in recent weeks? Let’s dive in.

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US-Iran Nuclear Deals

In the early nuclear age, we saw cooperation between the United States and Iran, as the former supported the latter’s nuclear ambitions as part of the “Atoms for Peace” program. A nuclear cooperation agreement in 1957 was followed by a 5-megawatt research reactor and enriched uranium in 1967. Iran also signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1970, and plans to build 23 nuclear power reactors were negotiated with Western companies in 1974. So, what changed? This sounds like a trajectory towards Iran becoming a nuclear-powered state.

Well, the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the subsequent hostage crisis saw U.S.-Iran relations collapse. Western companies withdrew, and the Iranian nuclear program slowed due to a lack of expertise and equipment. This period of nuclear stagnation ended when Russia agreed to complete Iran’s Bushehr reactor in 1995, which led to U.S. sanctions against both nations. Iran insisted the program was a peaceful project. But when nuclear enrichment and an adversary is involved, the United States doesn’t wish to take any chances. We are still living in a version of this reality today, albeit with some periods of attempted cooperation.

In the past, we’ve seen deals formulated between the two geopolitical adversaries, but Trump’s first term threw a spanner in the works. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was formulated beginning in 2013. It involved Iran, the United States, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. It saw Iran’s uranium enrichment limited to 3.67%, reduced their centrifuges by two-thirds, and allowed IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear sites. In return, Iran was granted sanctions relief and access to global markets.

Photo by Morteza F.Shojaei on Unsplash

However, Trump’s spanner arrived in 2018, when he withdrew from the deal, calling it the “worst deal ever.” He imposed harsh sanctions as a part of his “maximum pressure” campaign, and Iran began to breach JCPOA enrichment limits. Tensions continued in the Middle East over the next few years with attacks against Saudi Aramco and the Qassem Soleimani assassination. Biden attempted to restart the JCPOA during his term, but indirect negotiations stalled over Iran’s demand to remove the IRGC from the U.S. terror list. Iran expanded its nuclear enrichment to 60% in the aftermath of no deal.

So, the JCPOA is dead. But Trump’s administration is engaged in new talks. What have these involved, and where are they heading?

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New Talks

The United States and Iran have met five times thus far in these talks. What has each talk involved?

• Talk 1 - On April 12th, this series of negotiations began following a letter from Trump to Khamenei. This talk was held in Oman and was led by Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The talks were described as constructive. Iran reportedly proposed a three-step plan to reach a deal. Firstly, enrichment would temporarily be lowered to 3.67% in return for access to frozen financial assets and the ability to export oil. Secondly, Iran would permanently halt high-level enrichment, restore UN inspections, and allow surprise inspections at undeclared sites. This would occur only if further sanctions were lifted, and if the UK, Germany, and France didn’t trigger a snapback of UN sanctions. It’s worth noting that if these talks fail, France has threatened to trigger the snapback mechanism. Finally, U.S. Congress would approve the nuclear agreement, and the U.S. would lift primary and secondary sanctions. Iran would then transfer its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to a third country. Witkoff, to the surprise of the Iranians, reportedly welcomed the proposals. A few days after this, the Iranian-Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was signed.

• Talk 2 - These talks were still mediated by Oman, but were held in Rome. In the aftermath, the Israeli Air Force reportedly conducted drills simulating an Iranian missile attack on Israeli airbases.

Photo by Robert Bye on Unsplash

• Talk 3 - A week after the second talk, these talks were held in Muscat. It’s in this meeting that both sides began to formulate a potential framework for an agreement. Araghchi reported more progress but stated that differences remained. Namely, the lack of trust between the sides. Iran is seeking guarantees to protect itself in the event that the United States withdraws from such a deal. This means they intend to retain a level of enriched uranium within their borders.

• Talk 4 - These talks were initially set for May 3rd in Rome. These were postponed in the aftermath of Iran’s support for Yemen’s Houthis. On May 12th, the U.S announced four new sanctions on the Iranian missile company Ideal Vacuum. It’s since this date that the differences on nuclear enrichment have been made public. Trump has stated he wishes for a full dismantling of nuclear enrichment, which is currently at 60%, while the Iranians wish to maintain a level of enrichment. 90% enrichment is required for weaponisation.

• Talk 5 - On May 23rd, the fifth round of talks was concluded. Oman stated that limited progress was made in Rome. Importantly, despite negative rhetoric throughout May, Iran reported that they were “not discouraged” after these talks.

The sixth talk has been reported to be set accordingly. With some promising progress, where are we heading?

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Room For Future Deals