Geopolitics Review Extra - 21st November 2024

Biden's Last Few Months, German Government Collapses, and Iran Plots To Kill Trump

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Biden’s Last Few Months

3. German Government Collapses

4. Iranian Plot To Kill Trump Foiled By FBI

5. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• Over the last few weeks, further interesting news has emerged that I’ve wanted to cover. We, of course have the aftermath of the U.S. election, which led to two of the stories I’ll discuss today.

• Firstly, what will be I’m the agenda for Biden’s last months in office? Will he seek to Trump-proof some aspects of his policy, namely the spending attributed to the Inflation Reduction Act?

• Secondly, what of the story about the Iranian plot to kill Trump? Is it all noise or is there more to this? Does Elon Musk meeting with the Iranian Ambassador to the UN have anything to do with this?

• I’ll then move onto discussing the European Union. News kiosks around Paris are labelled with “Make Europe Great Again” after Trump’s victory. But, the EU is in a tough situation. France had a snap election a few months ago that left a disjointed government with no majority and no Prime Minister for many months. Germany has now had governmental issues of its own, with a government collapse occurring last week. How did this occur and where do we go from here?

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Introduction

With geopolitics moving rapidly in the last month, there are still some topics that I’d like to discuss. Specifically, these are how Biden’s calendar is shaping up over the last months of his presidency, the Trump assassination plot, and the collapse of the German government. Find out more below.

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Biden’s Last Few Months

Despite being ousted as the Democratic candidate by Nancy Pelosi and company, Biden will continue to be president until January. In exploring Biden’s last few months in office, will any key decisions come his way?

Following the Democratic National Convention in August, Biden took a two-week vacation after his speech there. The plans for Biden’s final months were constructed around this time, with Biden, his Chief of Staff Jeff Zients, and top advisors formulating a plan to focus on four specific goals:

• Finding New Ways To Increase Investment In US Infrastructure

• Reducing Costs For Americans

• Safeguarding Freedoms

• Strengthening US Alliances To Solve Global Challenges

We have seen Biden pursue a peaceful passing of the torch, inviting Trump to the White House last Wednesday. They discussed Ukraine, The Middle East, and how to ensure as smooth a transition as possible for Trump’s arrival in January.

Photo by History in HD on Unsplash

Biden also had the G20 meeting in Brazil and the APEC Summit in Peru in the last few days, where he met with Xi Jinping on the sidelines. Both stated that nuclear weapons will be controlled by humans, not AI, in what is a worrying development in the AI space. Xi also stated he would work with the incoming Trump administration, seemingly painting an image of Biden’s declining influence, even as he still holds office for the next few months.

The final aspect I want to explore is whether, regardless of what Biden pursues in the last few months of his presidency, it will matter if Trump arrives in January and decides to reverse many of Biden’s key decisions and policies. One such policy under fire is the Inflation Reduction Act. Federal agencies and government departments have announced around two-thirds of the $145B attributed to climate efforts in the Inflation Reduction Act. However, raw figures haven’t been confirmed. The departments and agencies receiving funding are listed here:

• Agriculture Department

• Environmental Protection Agency

• Energy Department

• Interior Department

• Transporation Department

• Commerce Department

• General Services Administration

• US Postal Service

• Housing and Urban Development Department

• Homeland Security Department

• Council and Environmental Quality

With Trump seeking to wheel back spending on the IRA, these raw figures could prove informative in how much spending Trump plans on scaling back. So does Biden rush to attribute and obligate a large majority of this spending to departments and projects he finds promising before Trump comes in and potentially pulls any unattributed spending away? Trump is quoted as saying he would withdraw “all unspent IRA funding” as it would send “American jobs to China”. Saving money through less IRA spending could also contribute to funding Trump’s large proposed tax cuts.

Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

Regardless, it seems Biden is in a race to spend productively on climate-related projects through the IRA. His finish line is in January, but for the rest of the world, Biden has seemingly being left behind, fading into the distant background.

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German Government Collapses