Geopolitics Review Extra - 12th December 2024
Georgia, Romania, and South Korea
Contents
Introduction
Georgian Protests
Romanian Elections
South Korean Martial Law
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
In recent weeks, escalations in Ukraine and the collapse of the Syrian government have taken up a large portion of our geopolitical attention spans. Yet in the background, more events continue to unfold.
In Georgia, we have seen protests over the government’s decision to suspend EU accession until at least 2028. In Romania, the constitutional court has annulled the first round of an election due to fear of interference, and finally, South Korea’s President Yoon called martial law, the first time in over 50 years that this has occurred.
And so, where will these protests take Georgia, closer or further from the EU? Will Romania reschedule their annulled election, and does this spell the beginning of the end for Yoon in South Korea?
Introduction
With us experiencing yet another busy few weeks in geopolitics, an extra review is required yet again. This time, I’ll discuss South Korea’s martial law, Romania’s elections, and Georgia’s protests. What is happening, who is involved, and where are each of these issues potentially heading? Let’s explore.
Georgian Protests
The government in Georgia made the decision to suspend EU accession talks until at least 2028. Russia’s Vladimir Putin states he was surprised by the bravery and courage of the Georgian leadership in defending their point of view. This point of view, which was presented by the Georgian Prime Minister stated “unacceptable interference and manipulation” from Brussels as a primary contributing reason.
As a result of this delay to EU accession, the pro-EU portion of a divided country has flocked to protest. The protests have also had political effects, with opposition leader Nika Melia arrested along with over 100 other people involved in the protests.
Is this the true reason for the protests, or do people just like violence? Perhaps the true meaning of any protest is falling living standards. We saw in the UK in the summer, that protests turned violent and the reason they started in the first place, which was the awful murder of three young girls in Southport, faded into the background.
With this in mind, I don’t believe this issue is Georgia aligning more with Russia or distancing from the EU. I believe it’s a geopolitical hedge. What it does highlight is the collective reasoning behind protests in our world today. Is it a protest for a hopeful future, or a protest founded in hate?
These comments came in the same speech in which Putin stated that he had no relationship with the leadership in Georgia. Many see this pivot away from Europe as beneficial to Russia, but Georgia vows it only seeks to protect itself from any “external pressures”. Georgia is seeking to chart its own course. Will its citizens pressure it to alter course once again?
Similarities have been given to Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan, launched after Ukraine also suspended its EU aspirations in 2014. Conflict in the Donbas has occurred since then, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupting in 2022.
Is this Georgia’s Maidan Revolution? These protests are generally seen as the youth hoping for economic and political reform more aligned with the EU, while others resisting the EU ensure Georgia maintains more cultural traditions. Once again, demographics is destiny, and Georgia is hedging its potential future. Will it reach the point where it has to commit to one or the other? In a March 2023 survey, 75% of Georgians surveyed were in full support of Georgia’s eventual accession into the European Union. With this latest government update, however, it appears this won’t be the reality anytime soon.
Note: Patrick Lancaster is on the ground in Tbilisi, monitoring the events. His updates are incredibly in-depth and he’s the best source I’ve found to keep up with what’s happening here.
Romanian Elections
Romania’s constitutional court has annulled the first round of voting in Romania’s Presidential Election from November 24th. As a result, the election process will be restarted from scratch. What happened in this first round for the constitutional court to annul the result?
The first round was won by Calin Georgescu, a far-right politician. He is sceptical of NATO, has praised Vladimir Putin, and mainly used TikTok to campaign. The accusation was that TikTok had given preferential treatment to Georgescu and his campaign.
On the one side, the court declassified documents that suggest Georgescu was the beneficiary of an influence operation originating from outside of Romania. The outgoing Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu later confirmed this was due to Russian interference.
On the other side, the court has interfered with an election, which is bound to receive some negative attention. Georgescu won the first round with 23%, and current opposition leader Lasconi won 19%. Even Lasconi critique the decision, stating that “the Romanian state has trampled on democracy”.
As to where the elections go from here, we will know more when a new date is announced. This is truly unchartered territory. Bucharest saw several thousand protestors gather last Thursday, waving EU flags. Many hope to remain in close relations with the EU, but the future re-election will determine the true direction Romania takes moving forward.
As for election tampering or interference, it likely happens in the background so much more than we as individuals are ever aware of. Especially as we enter a world where the realms of cyber are leveraged more and more, the potential to weaponize such tools rises along with it. Especially in this year’s elections, there has been poor performance from incumbents. People are unhappy with their nation’s politics, and this will bring political change. With change expected, however, it provides an opportunity to influence a result. Geopolitical actors today are multifaceted, and perhaps this level of interference is a norm to be expected in our elections today. Ultimately, to limit the chances of this, we need election reform. As to how this looks, who knows? But citizens of nations around the world need to be able to determine their own futures without interference from geopolitical actors.
South Korean Martial Law
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