Geopolitics Review – 8th July 2024

Israel Update – Part 3

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Election Ramifications

3. The War Pie

4. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• We saw the car crash of a US Presidential debate a few weeks ago, between one man who is cognitively a former shadow of himself, and the other who’s a convicted felon and has a strained relationship with the truth. It’s almost the setup to a bad joke, and when we consider that both are competing for the biggest stage the political world has to offer, it makes you want to close the curtains and hide in a corner.

• The election in the United States in November will have consequences on Israel, and the current conflict. Biden wants peace to boost his own election campaign, but with Netanyahu incentivised to continue the war in some capacity for personal reasons, tensions are rising between the two.

• Back when Trump was president, his proposed peace plan for Israel and Palestine heavily favoured the Israelis. In Trump’s plan, Israel would have a united Jerusalem as its capital and would keep the villages they’ve illegally expanded into in the West Bank. Is Netanyahu waiting until November and a potential Trump presidency to enact his plan for Gaza after the conflict?

• One thing is clear, this historic conflict between Israel and Palestine is deeply routed. It has spanned decades and could span decades further. To move forward, both need to be incentivized to sit at the negotiating table. We’re far away from that now, but we can start to move in a more productive direction with the table in mind. This requires an international effort, and time. What strategies can be implemented to help get us moving in a better direction?

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Introduction

Today marks the final part of my updates in Israel. I’ll refresh you on my ideas behind the process both Israel and Palestine need to pursue today, to eventually reach a place of peace that will exist decades in the future. I’ll also detail the current conflicting conditions in this current conflict and the vicious cycles that continue to fuel the flames of the historical Israel-Palestine conflict.

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Election Ramifications

Biden wants a positive peace deal for his November election campaign. They also want an Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation to say they’ve worked towards establishing a more peaceful Middle East, as Trump did through the Abraham Accords.

There are two takeaways I get from this. Firstly, it’s looking more unlikely by the day, especially with Netanyahu having to continue the war to keep his government intact and remain in power to avoid his corruption charges. The Israeli Prime Minister is incentivised to continue the war, even if that means managing the United States and its rising negative sentiment against Israel.

Secondly, Netanyahu likely doesn’t care what Biden wants. Tensions between the two have existed since Biden was critical of Netanyahu’s attempts to consolidate power in Israel with judicial reforms, stating it was an attack on Israel’s democracy. Netanyahu’s public spats with Biden and Obama before him have been seen by some as Netanyahu’s shift towards supporting Republican governments in the United States. With November’s election on the horizon, Netanyahu would likely interact better with Donald Trump. Remember, it was Trump who moved the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognising united Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in his peace proposal. The proposal also included Palestinians getting no right to return and a redrawing of borders in the West Bank. Trump and Netanyahu certainly seem more aligned than Biden and Netanyahu and so the battle of words between Biden and Netanyahu will likely continue.

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Netanyahu will last as long as the war lasts. If that lasts longer than November and we see a Trump win in the election, we’ll then see how Trump interacts with Israel and Netanyahu’s war effort. Trump seemingly soured slightly towards Netanyahu when he congratulated Biden on the 2020 election win, and he has criticised Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence for failing to anticipate October 7^th. Trump has also referred to Hezbollah as “very smart”, so take from that what you will. Is Trump’s otherwise limited comments on the conflict a sign he has no clue what to do? We’ll see in November, as we also will with his policy to Ukraine.

One thing is clear, Trump’s moves in the Middle East likely won’t be weak, which is a criticism he’s had of Biden’s approach to the Middle East and his presidency in general. He tends to enact big, historic, geopolitical moves as he did in his first term with the Abraham Accords, and tariffs on China.