Geopolitics Review - 6th January 2025

My 2025 Yearly Scenario Analysis

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Africa

3. Asia

4. Europe

5. Middle East

6. North America

7. Oceania

8. South America

9. World Geopolitical Scenarios

10. Other Scenarios To Explore

11. Concluding Remarks

12. Other News In Geopolitics This Week

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Bitesize Edition

• I’m not in the game of seeking to predict the future. It’s a futile exercise since we can’t ever predict these black swan events that emerge in the tails. These low-probability events rarely occur, but when they do, they often have a huge impact. Part of their huge impact is that they are often unpredictable.

• I am, however, in the game of scenario analysis. These are events that could happen in and around the mean, whether positive or negative. They are easier to imagine and can allow us to prepare for the consequences of these events if they do come to fruition. It’s this exercise that I’ll engage in today.

• I’ll explore each continent separately, before diving into some global geopolitical scenarios that could come to be in 2025.

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Introduction

In constructing scenarios, I usually explore large, macro-based scenarios, backed by mathematical probability, forecasting techniques, history, and cyclical global occurrences. This can make my “early-year predictions” rather boring, but I’d prefer this than making multiple claims that have little to no chance of occurring.

In this upcoming year, I believe trade, energy, resources, and self-sufficiency will be the biggest trends to keep an eye on. Let’s dive in.

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Africa

• Sudan Civil War continues as multiple nations continue to meddle, adding fuel to the fire. Turkey has shown an interest in helping to mediate the conflict but the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has seen many geopolitical pieces moving right on Turkey’s doorstep. Much of their attention will be focused on Syria and the Kurds in 2025.

• Somalia sees a greater U.S. presence as it intends to construct five new military bases in Somalia to combat terrorism. A silent geopolitical fight for influence over the Horn of Africa continues to unfold.

• Ethiopian Axis emerges against Somalia, including Kenya and Djibouti. Somaliland’s breakaway ambitions continue to gain greater geopolitical attention. The UAE’s investments in Somaliland’s Port of Berbera could see it involved in yet another African conflict as it already is in Sudan.

• Nigeria continues to emerge as Sub-Saharan Africa’s geopolitical regional power, fuelled largely by favourable demographics that see Nigeria possess a significant labour force. Over 70% of Nigerians are under 30 years old, and with ample opportunity for investment and development in Nigeria, they will continue to develop for years to come. Lagos is a financial hub, and oil and gas aren’t disappearing anytime soon. These account for around 90% of Nigeria’s export earnings. Despite the heavy reliance on energy income, Nigeria will diversify, especially in technology and services. Finally, Nigeria is a strong voice in ECOWAS and the African Union and possesses one of Africa’s most capable militaries.

• Egypt’s food issues will continue. As the world fragments, supply chains are more likely to be disrupted. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, of which a large proportion used to come from Russia and Ukraine. With the end of the Black Sea Graim Deal in July 2023, Egypt will be one of the biggest losers over the coming years. Egypt also has limited arable land and water scarcity issues. Even with the Nile, Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam further upstream creates worry for the Egyptians that this could one day see less water flow to them. Globally, rising food prices, coupled with Egyptian currency devaluations will make imports more expensive. 2025 could well be the year that this issue rises to the surface.

• The military junta states in Africa will increase links to Russia, whether through Wagner Group presence, private security groups, nuclear projects, or resource sharing. Russia is active in 33 African countries, and as influence for the United States, France, and the UK declines on the continent, Russia and China will step into these holes.

• South Africa will host the G20 in November, and this will be looked to by the African Union as an opportunity to bring global focus on establishing African institutions and improving the quality of life for the entire continent. A nation that could benefit heavily from this G20 Summit is China via its Belt and Road initiative.

• Elections in Ivory Coast, Tanzania, and Cameroon will likely highlight the political directions these nations' citizens will pursue in the future.

Photo by Sergey Pesterev on Unsplash

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Asia