Geopolitics Review - 5th August 2024
Geopolitics Review - 5th August 2024
Ukraine Updates
Contents
Introduction
Frontlines and Key Fighting Zones
Key Events
Changes In Strategy
Potential For Ukraine Sovereign Default
The Three Elections
Potential Negotiators
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
It’s been a long time since I’ve covered what is happening in Ukraine. For those hoping for coverage of Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, and further escalations in the Middle East, keep an eye out for my coverage of that later in the week.
As for Ukraine, we’ve reached the stage of attrition. Progress is slow for either side, but the war is still Russia’s to lose. They have more troops and are slowly advancing in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine.
In the South, the Dneiper River and the destruction of the Kakhovka dam last June have seen an already marshland area become even more unnavigable. Down here, it’s likely the lines sat on either side of the Dneiper will remain.
And so, with Luhansk held entirely by Russia, we look to Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Pokrovsk is where a large amount of media coverage is currently based on, after previous long drawn-out battles in Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Yesterday, Ukraine received its first F-16s, in what will change the field of war when they do get in the air. This won’t be yet, however. So, where are we now in Ukraine, and where are we heading? Let’s explore below.
Introduction
The Russia-Ukraine War has entered the stage of attrition. A few weeks ago, I first heard the opinion that this conflict could be a case of whose society collapses first. I think it’s a scenario that has to be considered. For now, let’s explore where the key fighting is occurring today.
Frontlines and Key Fighting Zones
In exploring the Ukraine war, before diving into the key events, I think it’s prudent to explore where the frontlines and key fighting zones are, and how this has changed over the previous months.
Back in March 2022, we found ourselves in this situation seen in the top right:
It’s clear from the graphic above from March 2022 that Russia wanted, and likely expected with their initial march on Kyiv, to take Ukraine quickly. This is especially supported by the Ukrainian counter-offensive that had to retake an area of Ukraine that Russia doesn’t claim any longer in its claim of the four regions. Putin lowered his expectations out of necessity, and they now claim four territories, those being Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Ukraine has been preparing since 2014 when we saw the annexation of Crimea for a potential conflict with Russia. Any military analysis the Russians completed before their invasion that predicted an easy win wholeheartedly underestimated this preparation and the heart of the Ukrainians.
Between July and November 2022, Ukraine quickly regained territory around Kherson and Kharkiv. Since then, the war has been slow-moving. Logistical issues have hampered the Russians, while aid into Ukraine has seen the conflict continue to escalate, from anti-tank weapons to tanks to F16s for the Ukrainians. The conflict is also no longer limited to just Ukraine, with long-range missiles striking within Russia, specifically aiming at key logistical infrastructure such as airfields and oil refineries.
One of the key geographical elements of the conflict is the Dneiper River. Back in June 2023, we saw the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. At the time, it had been Russia-controlled and the disputed thesis is the Russians blew up the dam to slow a Ukrainian counteroffensive. This certainly worked, flooding large areas downriver from the dam explosion. The other side of the Dneiper is marshland, which is very difficult for any forces to navigate even when it hasn’t been flooded. As a result, a stalemate appears to have formed in the South along the Dnieper. Other impacts from the dam explosion include water supply in the long term to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and Crimea itself, both of which were supplied by the reservoir held by the Kakhovka Dam. Sergei Aksyonov, Russia’s supported head of Crimea, stated they had two years of water in storage back when the dam was destroyed. If we reach the summer of 2025 and the war is still ongoing, this could become an issue that rises to the surface once again.
Russia in theory can get supplies to Crimea over the Kerch Strait Bridge, which Ukraine has targeted many times, or through the annexed territories in Ukraine by truck. They can also use vessels that have been frequently travelling back and forth between Rostov-on-Don and the Sea of Azov. None of these methods are particularly efficient and are vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive that commenced in June 2023, and ended in December has been described as an “operational failure”, even if it did see the Ukrainians recapture 14 villages in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Initially, they wanted to launch a counteroffensive in the spring, but poor weather delayed it until the summer. The Russians were more prepared than the 2022 counteroffensive, digging trenches, placing landmines, and establishing artillery positions. This counteroffensive was described by many as the start of this period of stalemate within the war.
After this, it was noted that a new strategy would be needed by Ukraine and its supporters in the West. This was seemingly confirmed when it was announced F16s would be sent to Ukraine, back in August 2023. Yesterday we saw Zelenskyy announce they have received the first F-16s. It will provide Ukraine with a level of air-ability to challenge the Russians more than they currently possess with old Soviet technology. It could also provide Ukraine with stronger capabilities to defend against Russian glide bombs or to hit infrastructure within Russia more easily. However, since the announcement back in August, Russia has increased its attacks on Ukrainian airbases where F-16s would be held. So much so, that it has been discussed if the aircraft would be held in Ukraine at all. Russia was essentially stating that if F-16s are received, we know where they’ll be, and we’ll have the capabilities to hit them. With Ukraine receiving the first F-16s today, but not having enough trained pilots to fly them, there is still set to be a period of time before their impact on the war is seen. Ukraine has stated that 20 F-16s will be in the air by the end of 2024. How this affects the war remains to be seen, but it won’t be yet. What Ukraine has struggled to do throughout the entire war is to find air superiority. This gives them to opportunity to do so and to better defend the territory it has. If the aim is to give Ukraine a greater platform to stand on at eventual negotiations, it’s a good place to start. Unless we find ourselves continuing to escalate.
The biggest areas of conflict continue to occur in the Donetsk region. Russia controls all of the Luhansk region, and in the South, as stated earlier, the Dneiper has formed a stalemate stronger than other areas along the frontlines.
The battles within the Russia-Ukraine conflict have seen huge media coverage for areas such as Bakhmut, and then Avdiivka. Russia seized Bakhmut in May 2023, and Avdiivka in February 2024. The Russians are now looking towards the city of Pokrovsk, which has been touted as a key supply route for Ukraine. Specifically, the Russians have currently targeted two villages to Pokrovsk’s east called Zhelanne and Novooleksandrivka. This part of the conflict continues to see small areas heavily focused on in this conflict, with the stakes of these battles overinflated in the grand scheme of the full conflict. The battles are slow, and the overall gain for the eventual winner is very little. These battles provide a temporary morale boost, in a war riddled with low morale. Momentum is important, but in this war, any gained momentum is crushed quickly by the beginning of the next slow-paced battle. One such battle for Pokrovsk is commencing now. It is pitting 40,000 Russian troops against six Ukrainian brigades with around 12,000 troops. As this conflict has been from the start, it’s Russia who continues to throw people at its war effort, and it’s unfortunately theirs to lose. As well as glide bombs, the Russians are using a large amount of anti-tank missiles to slow Ukrainian heavy vehicles. The rural areas to the East of Pokrovsk are seeing Russia advance quicker than can occur in urban areas. The closer to Pokrovsk the fighting gets, the slower advance we will see. I’d once again expect another long, drawn-out conflict for Pokrovsk, occurring over many months.
Now, I'm going to reflect on some of the key events that have occurred over the previous few months in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Key Events
Sevastopol Attack
One issue that the United States had struggled with was the use of American weapons in attacking Russian territory. As has occurred with tanks, long-range missiles, and now aircraft, these limits have eventually been lifted. The conflict continues to escalate.
A Ukrainian missile strike in Sevastopol, part of the Crimean Peninsula, saw four killed. The Russians are blaming the United States as they stated the missile attack involved the U.S.-made ATACMS missiles.
After this, as Russia usually does, it attacks heavily with missiles, specifically towards the capital, Kyiv. This attack, however, targeted a children’s hospital.
Russian Children’s Hospital Attack Response
Russia responded to the Sevastopol beach attack with a missile barrage against Ukrainian cities. The Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital sustained huge levels of damage during the attack. Russia denied targeting it, stating a Ukrainian air defence missile caused the damage. Ukraine stated it had found evidence of a Russian cruise missile.
The hospital carried out cancer treatment and organ transplants, and the fact it was hit as a consequence of war is a misjudgment of the most severe consequences for all involved. It’s an unfortunate sign that this war has turned into one targeting infrastructure and civilians, on both the Russian and Ukrainian strategies.
Changes In Strategy
Over time, we’ve seen a cycle of perpetual escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Ukraine has been attacking infrastructure in the Belgorod region of Russia, specifically targeting energy infrastructure such as oil refineries. Russia‘s rich natural resource reserves and production have limited the impact sanctions by Western countries had on Russia’s economy. This is especially true when these Western nations just haven’t bought directly from Russia. Instead, it’s lengthening supply chains, with energy travelling from Russia through another country, such as India, who slap a markup on the selling price and make a small profit. These supply chains growing longer is only going to increase the floor under oil prices, which benefits Russia through its production and held reserves.
Russia has been using glide bombs, also aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure. It’s both of these points that support this war of attrition as being one in which whoever can uphold some level of society will win. Necessities are under attack. As I’ve discussed, Russia wins wars by using people until the problem is solved. This time, however, Russia is hurting its own ageing demography.
It’s also believed by the Baltics and Poland that if Ukraine fell, they would be next. With that in mind, the Baltics and Poland are heavy supporters of Ukraine and have stated if the frontlines suddenly collapsed, they could be tempted to fight in Ukraine. Couple this with France’s Emmanuel Macron appearing open to having French troops in Ukraine training the Ukrainians, and Europe is considering taking a more active role in Ukraine itself. If this were to occur, it would stand to be NATO’s biggest test. Another huge test is the status of the United States and NATO come to the November election, but more on that later.
A final interesting development has been Ukrainian attacks on Russian satellite bases. Without satellite bases, Russia has no glide bombs, no satellite communication, and no space program. It’s certainly a big move to make if the Ukrainians continue to make moves like this, but coverage on this issue has seen little coverage. If we see another similar attack from Ukraine, we have a pattern which could imply this is a long-term aim of the Ukrainians.
However, for Ukraine to see these long-term aims through, they can’t default on their debts. This issue has arisen to the surface again recently.
Potential For Ukraine Sovereign Default
A sovereign default occurs when a nation can’t afford to pay its government debts. Wars are expensive, and so debt can grow uncontrollably. When a default occurs, debts can be restructured, or written off completely.
Prior to the war at the end of 2021, Ukraine had a government debt-to-GDP of 48.9%. Ukraine’s increased public spending has increased domestic debt, and borrowing has increased foreign debt. This has occurred even with many nations providing Ukraine aid through grants, not debt.
The reason this issue is rising to the surface now is Ukraine had an agreement to postpone payments of the principal and interest on European bonds until August 1st, 2024. This accounted for around $23B in payments. That agreement has now gone, and interest has to be paid for the three years from 2022 to 2024. This issue would have come to a head right now, but Zelenskyy signed a law allowing the government to suspend foreign debt payments until October 1st. What occurs now is Ukraine will enter a short-term debt default, until private bondholders agree to postpone debt payments further, with 2027 being the rumoured date being negotiated. Foreign governments have supported this deal.
What usually occurs in the scenario of a default is a lender of last resort, usually the IMF, arrives on the scene. They provide a loan to these nations, conditional to strict policies. Ukraine has already visited the IMF. They have already replaced a previous $10B loan with a $15.6B loan. This $15.6B loan has an interest rate of around 8.5% per annum.
Ukraine also issued GDP-linked bonds in 2015. If Ukraine's economic growth is above 3% per annum, the bond pays out. Greater growth means greater payout.
If Ukraine is to delay this default for as long as possible, it will need to restructure this Eurobond debt and its GDP-linked bonds. Then they’ll have to address the conditions of the IMF debt, which is incurring huge interest payments at above 8% rates. They could also rework the structure of the bonds, swapping them for new bonds with different terms. This is a lengthy process, and Ukraine is now on a timeline once again. October 1st will soon come around. Ukraine could of course continue to extend its payment freeze past this date.
In the scenario where Ukraine defaults, borrowing becomes much more difficult. It’s very likely this will be avoided, especially with foreign governments already supporting the deal to further delay payments.
Ukraine isn’t the only one about whom news has emerged of a financial nature. This past week, Russia announced they would legalize Bitcoin for international trade. Are they struggling economically, or seeking to avoid the impacts of sanctions?
As with many other countries this year, elections will have a profound impact on the future direction we see geopolitics move. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, three elections will have the greatest effects, two of which have already occurred, to some extent.
The Three Elections
Cancelled Ukrainian Elections
Presidential elections were scheduled for March or April 2024 in Ukraine. However, parliament approved a declaration of martial law when the war commenced in February 2022. Hence no elections were held since Ukrainian law doesn’t allow elections under martial law.
There are concerns over how viable an election would be, with Russia controlling areas in four territories of Ukraine. Many Ukrainians have also fled the country seeking safety.
Once martial law is over, an agreement is being formulated that would see a Presidential election occur no earlier than six months later. The presidential election in Ukraine is a two-round system, with a president elected with an absolute majority in the first round. If not, a second round occurs between the top two candidates.
There was some controversy surrounding the potential for a Ukrainian election. Polling taking place in February 2024 of 3,000 people saw former Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Army Valerii Zaluzhny poll at 41.4% as an independent, against Zelenskyy at 23.7%. This is a singular poll in isolation, and so should be taken with a grain of salt.
In February 2024, Zelenskyy replaced Zaluzhny and other senior officers, with his reasoning stated as attempts to rejuvenate the war effort stalling after last year’s counteroffensive failed. Some had begun to support Zaluzhny more over the years, and some were touting him as a potential leader of Ukraine, especially due to his war experience. He was the mastermind behind the first counteroffensive. Since his removal as Commander in Chief of the Army, he is now the Ambassador to the United Kingdom. Some have discussed whether this is to get him away from the limelight in Ukraine, to not threaten Zelensky’s position. Regardless, it appears that a Ukrainian presidential election isn’t in the realm of possibility at this point. One such election that did go ahead was the Russian election, which occurred earlier this year.
Russian Election
Held in March 2024, the Russian elections saw Vladimir Putin win with 88% of the vote, securing a fifth term. 2020 amendments to the constitution saw Putin able to run once again. Many candidates were barred from running, and the runup to the election saw prominent opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, die in prison. Putin secured his continued rule in Russia long before the election had even occurred. As expected, he has a war effort to continue pushing and he won’t allow that to be disturbed.
As I discussed earlier, which I seemingly find myself discussing every week, the election in the United States in November is the final election to consider, especially regarding future aid for Ukraine, and Europe’s role in NATO and the war itself.
US Election
As for the next big change we’ll see in the war, it will likely be the election in November in the United States.
Vladimir Putin recently responded to Donald Trump’s claim that he would end the war immediately, stating he “takes that very seriously”.
Trump’s plans haven’t yet been revealed, except in private conversations with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban. Trump’s rumoured plan is to give up Ukrainian territory to end the war. The problem then becomes where this leaves us looking forward. I’ve discussed in the past what would occur if Ukraine was split into East and West. The West would struggle economically and with manufacturing, with Russia enveloping parts of the richer East. However, with the current frontlines sitting on the Dneiper River in the South, but then seeing Russia not control the entirety of the Donbas Region, Russia likely wouldn’t get the territory it wanted if lines were drawn as the current frontlines are today. The only region that Russia fully controls is Luhansk. Any Trump Presidency will throw a spanner in the works. Another key point is if Russia withdraws from Ukraine, the war ends. Ukraine didn’t ask for any of this and is defending its own territory. Can they be asked to give up anything, especially if this just delays another inevitable future conflict?
If Trump tells Ukraine he’ll stop sending weapons if they don’t give up territory, we then get a range of scenarios.
If Ukraine accepts peace due to decreased American support leading to a potential collapse of the frontlines, where are the lines drawn? If this occurs, who in Europe steps up? Do we see an active presence of Polish troops and the Baltic state troops in Ukraine?
If peace is achieved, does Ukraine then join NATO? Do countries within NATO not approve of this, seeing an eventual NATO-Russia conflict and not wanting to fight this? Do some nations leave NATO?
Throughout history, Russia has sought distance from its borders to Moscow. War is changing, but this is seemingly still a part of Russia’s goal. Even if peace is achieved through Trump’s proposal, what’s stopping Russia from pausing and going again? Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and now Ukraine is a pattern. Many theorise that Russia’s eventual aim is to take the South coast of Ukraine and make a move on Transnistria in Moldova. Earlier this year, a Russian diplomat was expelled from the region for opening polling stations.
If Ukraine rejects peace, do we then get the United States leaving European security to Europe alone under a potential Trump presidency? The Europeans have to be more self-sufficient even without this occurring. But if it does who steps up? I’d argue the new Labour Government in the UK is positioning itself strongly regarding support for Ukraine and is attempting to integrate itself back into Europe. With the emergence of many far-right parties in Europe, these countries generally demonstrate less support for Ukraine. Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary are supplied natural gas by a Russian pipeline and so also show little hatred against the Russians. France is in political turmoil. Outside Poland, the Baltics, and Germany, who else but the UK to step up?
Potential Negotiators
We’ve seen in this past week, Turkey being the middleman in a prisoner exchange between the West and Russia. I’ll detail more about this in an upcoming podcast episode, but it has placed Turkey in the limelight once again as a country that both the West and Russia view as a valuable negotiator.
Biden did state that this prisoner deal was in no way indicative of a softer relationship between the US and Russia, with no direct communication between Biden and Putin occurring in the negotiations. The biggest takeaway from the prisoner swap wasn’t improved relations between Russia and the West, it was Turkey’s clear role as a potential negotiator and communicator between the two sides.
Another potential negotiator is India with Modi is set to visit Ukraine this month. We’ll see what emerges after this visit has taken place.
China has also spoken more in recent months about acting as a mediator in the conflict.
Two years on, and outside of rhetoric spoken by these nations, a ceasefire agreement, in my opinion, seems far away. The war will continue to slowly grind on, with no real winners. The biggest spanner in the works will come from the United States in November, and when the F-16s finally get in the air. The conflict in Ukraine will unfortunately be sticking around for much longer.
Concluding Remarks
Both Russia and Ukraine are in the midst of a war of attrition. A podcast episode I listened to recently stated that this war could end when either Russia or Ukraine collapse economically. It was the first time I’d heard it, and the longer the conflict goes on, the more it needs to be considered as a potential scenario. It’s also why Ukraine needs to navigate its potential sovereign default issue before October 1st.
A key issue will be the U.S. election in November. If we get a Trump presidency, Ukraine's support will dwindle, with Trump’s potential plan to ask Ukraine to give up territory to stop the war. The U.S.’s role in NATO also comes into question, as does Europe’s security as a whole. Does this drag Poland and the Baltics into a more active role? What also of Macron’s comments?
If we get a Harris win in November, will we continue to see the same extent of support provided for Ukraine? Will Europe still be expected to step up, or will a Democrat White House continue to allow Europe to take a backseat regarding its own security? The prisoner swap deal between the West and Russia this past week has marked a huge boost to Biden’s presidency, as he had been working on this deal before he took office. It has also boosted Harris’ campaign. Trump attempted to attack the deal, but he had no ammunition. It’s a great thing to see those who don’t deserve to be held as political prisoners returned home. I’ll release a podcast episode on the prisoner swap in the coming days so keep an eye out for that, along with coverage on the Middle East escalations!
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
American Officials Expect Iran Response To Be In Same Scope As April, But Broader In Scope
Biden Phone Call With Netanyahu Discussing Recent Escalations
Buffett Drops 71 Million Bank of America Shares. Cash Stockpile Rises
Egypt - Killing of Hamas Chief Indicates Israeli Political Lack of Will For Deescalation
Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's Most Senior Military Commander, Killed In Israeli Strike On Beirut
Hamas Leader Khalil Al-Hayya: No Divisions Within Hamas Following Haniyeh Assassination
Haniyeh Killed By Bomb Placed In Tehran Guesthouse Two Months Ago By Mossad
India Revealed As Latest To Attempt To Bring Peace To Russia-Ukraine. Modi Visit Planned For August
IRGC: Haniyeh Assassination Will Be Met With Harsh and Painful Response
Israel Also Takes Out The Hamas Commander of the Military Wing, Muhammad al-Deif
Russia Deploys Three Submarines Armed With Cruise Missiles To Sea of Azov
Russia Holds Third Phase of Tactical Nuclear Drills As Ukraine Receives First F16s
Russia Launched Biggest Drone Attack on Kyiv Since The Start of The War
Russian Assassin Vadim Krasikov Walks Free As Part of Prisoner Swap
Sudanese President Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan Survived Drone Strike Assassination Attempt
UK Defence Minister Arrives In Israel After Visit To Lebanon
Uranium Mining Stocks Sink After World's Largest Producer Boosts Production Guidance
US Plans Long-Range Missiles For Germany. Russia Vows "Mirror Measures"
US Seeking To Rein In Israel's Response To Deadly Strike On The Golan Heights
US State Department: Israel Is Participating Positively In Ceasefire Talks In Gaza
US, and UK Accelerate Quantum Computing Programs After China's Breakthrough
USS Theodore Roosevelt In Persian Gulf, Large Number of Vessels In Area
Zelenskyy Suspends Ukraine Foreign Debt Payments From August 1st
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-troops-inch-forward-ukraines-east-with-waves-bombs-infantry-2024-08-02/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-battles-pokrovsk-supply-route-zelenskyy-putin-rcna164018
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/new-life-death-escape-three-hours-line-russian-fire-rcna70546
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ng1p72wlwo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-satellite-russian-targets-crowdfunded-intelligence-hur/