Geopolitics Review - 3rd February 2025

Trump's First Few Weeks

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Trump’s Inauguration

3. Day One

4. After Day One

5. Can Countries Respond To Trump?

6. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• It’s been a busy few weeks for Trump, and as a result of his busy few weeks, it can be difficult for the rest of the world to keep up with what’s going on.

• From executive orders, to trade wars, to airstrikes, we’ve had political, military, and trade issues already presenting themselves in Trump’s presidency.

• Outside of all the noise, it’s clear that Trump is utilising one clear strategy to achieve his foreign policy goals, and that is economic statecraft. So as economic statecraft returns to the geopolitical field of play, I’ll explore the implications of this, as well as what Trump has spent his first few weeks doing and where the repercussions of his actions have been seen in the wider geopolitical world.

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Introduction

Donald Trump steals a lot of headlines in a normal week. A few weeks ago, he received much more attention as he reentered the White House. Ironically, we likely won’t have a “normal” week in the world of geopolitics for the next four years. To highlight how quickly time moves in a Trump world, he released a meme coin just over two weeks ago, and this news has been completely forgotten today.

Trump signed a large number of executive orders on day one, and also didn’t do some things he said he would on his first day before winning the election in November. Hence, let’s break down his busy week, explore what he has done since then, and how this will affect the United States and the wider world moving forward.

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Trump’s Inauguration

Everybody and their cat were seemingly at Trump’s inauguration, which was hidden inside due to the freezing temperatures outside. Former Presidents Biden, Obama, Bush, and Clinton were in attendance, as well as Zuckerberg, Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, and of course, Elon Musk, who spent $300M on support for Trump’s campaign. The world’s richest man also stole headlines for the salutes he made during his speech celebrating Trump’s inauguration. The inauguration was painted as an event including some of the biggest names in the world, while also highlighting the increasing role the mega technology companies have in the world.

One line that was the most memorable from Trump’s speech was, “The golden age of America begins now”. Trump has made it clear that he wants to strip out the system, presenting himself as an anti-establishment president. He is targeting the efficiency of the American system through the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, and he has backed this up further by placing all federal offices on paid leave.

Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

Trump also declared emergencies in energy and immigration, specifically the border with Mexico. In a more controversial move, Trump stated he believed there are only two genders, has rolled back support for transgender people, and withdrawn diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in government.

On the geopolitical stage, Trump has made just as much noise as he has domestically, promising to enact 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on China. As of February 1st, these tariffs are now active. In response, Canada responded with a 25% levy in return on specific products. Mexico has prepared a range of tariffs dependent on the item, ranging from 5% to 20%. Claudia Sheinbaum also made it clear that she had a “Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C” to counter Trump’s measures. China responded by stating that nobody wins in a trade war, as they will know from Trump’s first term. The Chinese will challenge the decision via the World Trade Organisation and have pushed for communication to ensure this trade war doesn’t escalate. This all came on top of the small trade war between the United States and Colombia last week, as the Colombians refused to accept a plane of deportees, before finally reversing this decision and accepting the plane after pressure from Trump.

Photo by Leio McLaren on Unsplash

Trump also has territorial ambitions surrounding Greenland and the Panama Canal, and he is using his favourite tool, economic statecraft, to achieve these goals. I’ll discuss this issue in greater detail later, and the implications it will have on the geopolitical world.

Another viral moment occurred when Hillary Clinton visibly laughed at Trump seeking to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. Trump’s territorial ambitions even head space-bound, with Trump’s hope of placing the American flag on Mars, going against the 1967 Outer Space Treaty which permits territorial claims in space.

Regardless of Trump’s speech, and his clear themes running throughout, such as trade and immigration, it still remains difficult to know what the next four years will look like. To paint a clearer picture, let’s dive into the executive orders Trump has signed in his first few weeks. These orders support the policy decisions Trump will pursue during his term.