Geopolitics Review - 3rd February 2025
Trump's First Few Weeks
Contents
Introduction
Trump’s Inauguration
Day One
After Day One
Can Countries Respond To Trump?
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
It’s been a busy few weeks for Trump, and as a result of his busy few weeks, it can be difficult for the rest of the world to keep up with what’s going on.
From executive orders, to trade wars, to airstrikes, we’ve had political, military, and trade issues already presenting themselves in Trump’s presidency.
Outside of all the noise, it’s clear that Trump is utilising one clear strategy to achieve his foreign policy goals, and that is economic statecraft. So as economic statecraft returns to the geopolitical field of play, I’ll explore the implications of this, as well as what Trump has spent his first few weeks doing and where the repercussions of his actions have been seen in the wider geopolitical world.
Introduction
Donald Trump steals a lot of headlines in a normal week. A few weeks ago, he received much more attention as he reentered the White House. Ironically, we likely won’t have a “normal” week in the world of geopolitics for the next four years. To highlight how quickly time moves in a Trump world, he released a meme coin just over two weeks ago, and this news has been completely forgotten today.
Trump signed a large number of executive orders on day one, and also didn’t do some things he said he would on his first day before winning the election in November. Hence, let’s break down his busy week, explore what he has done since then, and how this will affect the United States and the wider world moving forward.
Trump’s Inauguration
Everybody and their cat were seemingly at Trump’s inauguration, which was hidden inside due to the freezing temperatures outside. Former Presidents Biden, Obama, Bush, and Clinton were in attendance, as well as Zuckerberg, Bezos, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, and of course, Elon Musk, who spent $300M on support for Trump’s campaign. The world’s richest man also stole headlines for the salutes he made during his speech celebrating Trump’s inauguration. The inauguration was painted as an event including some of the biggest names in the world, while also highlighting the increasing role the mega technology companies have in the world.
One line that was the most memorable from Trump’s speech was, “The golden age of America begins now”. Trump has made it clear that he wants to strip out the system, presenting himself as an anti-establishment president. He is targeting the efficiency of the American system through the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, and he has backed this up further by placing all federal offices on paid leave.
Trump also declared emergencies in energy and immigration, specifically the border with Mexico. In a more controversial move, Trump stated he believed there are only two genders, has rolled back support for transgender people, and withdrawn diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in government.
On the geopolitical stage, Trump has made just as much noise as he has domestically, promising to enact 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on China. As of February 1st, these tariffs are now active. In response, Canada responded with a 25% levy in return on specific products. Mexico has prepared a range of tariffs dependent on the item, ranging from 5% to 20%. Claudia Sheinbaum also made it clear that she had a “Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C” to counter Trump’s measures. China responded by stating that nobody wins in a trade war, as they will know from Trump’s first term. The Chinese will challenge the decision via the World Trade Organisation and have pushed for communication to ensure this trade war doesn’t escalate. This all came on top of the small trade war between the United States and Colombia last week, as the Colombians refused to accept a plane of deportees, before finally reversing this decision and accepting the plane after pressure from Trump.
Trump also has territorial ambitions surrounding Greenland and the Panama Canal, and he is using his favourite tool, economic statecraft, to achieve these goals. I’ll discuss this issue in greater detail later, and the implications it will have on the geopolitical world.
Another viral moment occurred when Hillary Clinton visibly laughed at Trump seeking to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. Trump’s territorial ambitions even head space-bound, with Trump’s hope of placing the American flag on Mars, going against the 1967 Outer Space Treaty which permits territorial claims in space.
Regardless of Trump’s speech, and his clear themes running throughout, such as trade and immigration, it still remains difficult to know what the next four years will look like. To paint a clearer picture, let’s dive into the executive orders Trump has signed in his first few weeks. These orders support the policy decisions Trump will pursue during his term.
Day One
The White House website lists 46 items on Trump’s day one agenda. 4 were admin staff announcements, 26 were executive orders, 12 were memorandums, and 4 were proclamations. An executive order is a directive from the president that has the force of law. They are based on implied authority so examining the legality of each order in accordance with the American governance system is necessary. A memorandum is less formal but is used to communicate policy decisions. They are more flexible and easier to revoke than executive orders. A proclamation is usually to commemorate events, recognise individuals and groups, or establish observations. Importantly, proclamations are the most ceremonial of the three.
These are the key executive orders Trump made specifically on day one. Note, this is how they are titled, not my wording of the orders:
Putting America First In International Environmental Agreements
Application of Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act To TikTok
Withdrawing The United States From The World Health Organisation
Restoring Accountability To Policy-Influencing Positions Within The Federal Workforce
Clarifying The Military’s Role In Protecting The Territorial Integrity of the United States
Establishing and Implementing The President’s Department of Government Efficiency
Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs and Preferencing
Restoring The Federal Hiring Process And Restoring Merit To Government Service
Details of each order can be found via the link, or through the brilliant post from Freya Zank included in the sources at the bottom of this piece. After his executive orders on day one, Trump has also made other large changes in the United States.
After Day One
The executive orders are all linked above, but some of the biggest moves made by Trump are included within them. Firstly, Trump issued pardons for those who partook in the January 6th attack on the Capitol. He also pardoned Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht.
Since the TikTok executive order, Trump has revealed Microsoft are in talks to purchase the platform from ByteDance.
Trump has called for the release on more information on the Kennedy assassinations, announced a $500B Stargate AI Initiative, taken a trip to Davos, had a call with Xi Jinping, and started discussions with Russia regarding the Ukraine War.
In the military sphere, Trump has announced plans to build an Iron Dome in the United States, launched air strikes against Islamic State in Somalia, and confirmed he plans to withdraw from Syria. In summary, he’s had a busy few weeks.
This now brings me to the topics that I will dive into deeper this week, those being trade and foreign policy. I was listened to last week’s edition of Macro Voices, and a key point stuck with me.
Trump’s return has already been marked with multiple pieces of evidence as to what his key foreign policy strategy will be. Trump’s key geopolitical weapon will be economic statecraft. This means Trump will use economic tools in an effort to achieve foreign policy goals. One of his biggest strategies has been via tariffs, the threat of which is even sometimes enough to ensure Trump gets what he wants. Colombia has accepted planes of deportees after the threat of tariffs, Greenland has expressed hope for a stronger economic relationship with the United States, and Panama is investigating the activities of Hong Kong companies active in the Panama Canal.
However, it’s not all good news. The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are seeing NAFTA enter into trade disputes, and 10% tariffs on China could restart the trade war that was a key marker of Trump’s first term. From all these events, one thing stands out to me: Trump will focus on the Americas, and the backyard of the United States especially via with his strategy of economic statecraft.
Another note worthy of comment is that Trump was considering excluding oil from tariffs on Canada. Why would he do this? It’s because he needs Canadian crude. In the end, Trump placed a 10% tariff on oil from Canada, which makes up 61% of U.S. imports! Of course, the United States is a large producer itself, but this intricate situation comes down to the type of crude oil being produced. During Trump’s first term, a lot more was imported from the Middle East. In Trump’s first pivot back towards home in his first term, a key change was larger imports of Canadian crude. This is a thick type of crude known as heavy crude. U.S. shale has seen the United States rise to become an energy superpower, but shale oil is known for the lighter crude. Lighter crude is easier to refine and is easily manageable for refineries in the United States. Heavy crude is not. Remember, a tariff is paid by importers. It is American companies who pay tariffs. The hope is that America will reindustrialise and become self-sufficient, but if Trump places tariffs on products that the United States requires, it will cause more harm than good. Regardless of Trump’s image as a strong leader, he isn’t immune to damage.
Another consequence of Trump’s tit-for-tat foreign policy is that it often sparks a response. Could responses to his decisions from other geopolitical actors have adverse effects?
Can Countries Respond to Trump?
The United States is an economic powerhouse. Given this, does any country have a response to the United States and Trump? For example, if Trump raised tariffs on China, what would happen if China dramatically lowered its tariffs?
Remember, tariffs are a tax on imports. Donald Trump wants America First, but through this, imports could fall due to higher costs for Americans importing, especially businesses. If China lowers tariffs, the world’s factory could see itself be a more attractive market for exporters to China. In a period of time where globalisation is stagnating, could China lowering tariffs fuel the next iteration of globalisation, with China as the leader of a free trade world while the United States retreats into itself? The United States attempts to contain China who projects power through its Belt and Road Initiative. By making the United States less competitive in trade, could Trump be playing into the hands of the Chinese who will gain larger share of multiple key global markets?
My final point, although Trump’s economic approach currently appears to be seeing Trump get exactly what he wants, this has to work in tandem with domestic politics and the military in a trifecta. All three legs of this stool have to remain stable. Military strength of the United States is unrivalled, but even with a Republican House and Senate, some of Trump’s policies are so disruptive, that he might not even get them passed his own party. If any leg is going to contribute to a wonky stool and give Trump something to seriously think about, it’s going to be domestic politics. This is also connected to the Democrats. They had an incredibly weak display in this election, and they typically represent the establishment that Trump and his anti-establishment are seeking to destroy. Even in their silence, the Democrats will be staging a comeback. Their best chance to limit Trump and his policies is in domestic politics. Over the next four years, I’d expect this trend to ease its way onto the field of play, especially with us living in a period where incumbents have been struggling in elections. The Democrats and their activities in domestic American politics is something to keep an eye on.
Concluding Remarks
One way to tell Trump is back in the White House is to look at my “Other News” section below. It is littered with articles pertaining to Trump and other articles that don’t have his direct involvement are still affected by him. It’s certainly going to be four years in which a lot happens, and this promises to change the world of geopolitics as we know it. Trump says a lot, and it’s not wise to take it all literally. I would, however, urge people to take it seriously. As a businessman, and a man known for his political transactions, Trump is aware of the art of the deal. By pressuring Panama, he immediately got them to audit activities in the Panama Canal. Trump didn’t move a single troop, or spend a dollar. Again, don’t take him literally, since he stated he would use military force in Panama, but take him seriously, because he got exactly what he wanted anyway.
Regarding what Trump hasn’t yet done, and peace in Ukraine hasn’t been achieved. However, communication between Trump and Russia has occurred. This is yet another element of Trump’s second term that we will have to maintain an interest in, especially in the coming weeks.
To close, my thoughts go out to those who lost their lives in the crash between the Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines passenger plane, and their loved ones. I’m not going to discuss the political fallout from it, because that should not be the key takeaway from this issue, and the fact that it has been politicised is a disgrace. Regardless of political belief, there is much more that brings us together than divides us, and this awful incident is an opportunity to do just that and come together.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Al Jolani Becomes Syrian President, First Trip Abroad to Saudi Arabia
Black Hawk Helicopter Crashes With Commercial Passenger Plane Near Reagan National Airport
Egypt and Jordan Reject US Plan To Resettle Palestinians As Trump Doubles Down
EU Debating Restart of Russian Gas Purchases As Part of Ukraine Peace Deal
Europe Unlikely To Provide 200,000 Troops For Ukraine Peacekeeping
Musk Makes Campaign Speech At AfD Rally In Germany - Bashes Brussels and Multiculturalism
Poland Won’t Send Troops to Belarus or Ukraine Without Trump’s Approval
Russia Says Nuclear Plant Targeted In Large Ukrainian Drone Attack
Trump Announces Immediate Construction of Iron Dome In The United States
Trump Slams Hawkish Fed For “Failing To Stop The Problem They Created”
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Sources:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/02/democrats-trump-dei-washington-dc-plane-crash
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/washington-dc-plane-crash
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna190336
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/2/2/global-alarm-condemnation-as-trump-tariffs-hit-mexico-canada-and-china
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-presidency-news-01-31-25/index.html
https://time.com/7208691/trump-day-one-presidential-actions-executive-orders-memorandum-proclamation-explainer/#
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna184423
https://www.port.ac.uk/news-events-and-blogs/blogs/the-key-takeaways-from-donald-trumps-inauguration-speech
