Geopolitics Review - 2nd December 2024
The ICC Splits The Geopolitical World, And A Weak Ceasefire Arises
Contents
Introduction
The ICC Warrant
Moving Forward With A Weak Ceasefire
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
The Middle East has been a mainstream topic for over a year now. We’ve seen the October 7th attack, Hezbollah joining, and direct attacks between Israel and Iran.
The latest chapter saw the International Criminal Court release arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
This has split the international community. So, today, I’ll explore where many nations fall on this issue, and I’ll also explore the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Lebanon. Has this been broken so far, and what is the plan to enact this ceasefire? Find out more below.
Introduction
A few weeks ago, as I was passing The Hague on my way to Amsterdam, we saw the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, the former defence minister of Israel over war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip. The 18 judges in the court unanimously rejected Israel’s challenges against the court’s jurisdictions and issued the warrants anyway. The interesting aspect of the arrest warrants is where the rest of the world of geopolitics falls. Many have been asked for comments. Who supports the ICC, who supports Israel, and most importantly, why are countries choosing the side they’ve chosen? Let’s dive in.
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The ICC Warrant
Firstly, it’s worth noting that the U.S. and Israel are not members of the International Criminal Court. Thus it’s fairly well expected where they fall. As non-members, they are not legally bound by the ICC, but this does raise questions about the status of international justice, especially when both speak so openly against this ruling.
What it does mean is that if Netanyahu or Gallant decide to hop on a plane to any member state, they should, with should being a strong word, be obliged to arrest them. Despite this, as has been the case with the arrest warrant for Putin for his war in Ukraine and the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, some countries refuse to follow the guidance of the ICC despite being members. Putin visited Mongolia and wasn’t placed under arrest, further highlighting the enforcement of ICC rulings or a lack of enforcement.
So, who else lines up for and against the ICC warrant, and why?
Against The Warrant:
Hungary - As stated above, Orban said he wouldn’t enforce the warrant, just as he said the same about Vladimir Putin. Orban even invited Netanyahu to Hungary acting in defiance of the warrant.
The United States - Since they’re not a member of the ICC, the statement they released “fundamentally” rejected the warrant. The US stated that the ICC doesn’t have jurisdiction here, despite heavily supporting the arrest warrant issued for Vladimir Putin. The US is even working with the Israelis to sanction ICC officials potentially. Top officials nominated by Trump have also threatened the ICC. Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming national security adviser, stated there will be a “strong response for this antisemitic bias”.
Argentina - Javier Milei disagrees wholeheartedly with the warrant, stating it ignores Israel’s right to defend itself against “the constant attacks by terrorist organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah”.
Czechia - The Prime Minister, Defence Minister, and Foreign Minister have all criticised the ICC warrants. The issue for Czechia is that it “equates the leaders of a democratic state with the leaders of an Islamic terrorist organisation”, said the Prime Minister.
Supportive of The Warrant:
Sweden - The Swedish Prime Minister stated that Sweden “supports the court’s work”.
Spain - One of the most recent nations to recognise Palestinian statehood, the Spanish will “respect the decision” and “will comply with its commitments and obligations in relation to the Rome Statute”. The Spanish Labour Minister also welcomed the decision, saying “The genocide of the Palestinian people cannot go unpunished.”
Turkey - Erdogan called the warrants “courageous”, also saying they “renew the trust of humanity in the international system”. Turkey isn’t party to the ICC, but Erodgan and Turkey have been loud critics of the Israeli operations in the Middle East.
Ireland - Another nation to recently recognise Palestinian statehood. As a result, the Irish Prime Minister responded “Yes, absolutely” when asked if Ireland would arrest Benjamin Netanyahu.
Belgium - The Belgians will support the ruling of the ICC and arrest Israeli leaders should they travel there. The Foreign Ministry made the following comments: “Those responsible for crimes committed in Israel and Gaza must be prosecuted at the highest level”.
The Netherlands - The Dutch Foreign Minister cancelled a trip to Israel after the Netherlands announced they would obey the ICC warrant and would arrest Benjamin Netanyahu should he enter their country.
Norway - The Norwegians have shown strong support for the ICC warrant. The Foreign Minster stated, “The ICC plays a crucial role in ensuring accountability for serious crimes”.
Slovenia - Prime Minister Robert Golob said his country would obey the warrant and will fully comply.
South Africa - With South Africa leading the genocide case against Israel, it’s relatively easy to suspect where they fall. The South African International Affairs and Development Department said “These actions mark a significant step towards justice for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Palestine”.
Canada - The Canadians will abide by the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant. The importance of international law and Canada being a founding member of the ICC were also promoted.
Unclear:
Germany - The Germans find themselves in a dilemma, not wanting to go against the ICC but also having close historical ties with Israel. The German Foreign Minister specifically stated they were “examining what the ruling means for implementation in Germany”, thus leaving the German’s stance unclear.
Austria - The foreign ministry called the ruling “utterly incomprehensible”, but added that “international law is nonnegotiable and applies everywhere.”
The UK - The spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed Britain would comply with legal obligations. It was also added that hypotheticals wouldn’t be explored. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper stated ICC investigations rarely become a matter for UK Law enforcement to address. Hence, the UK also remains unclear.
France - France’s Foreign Ministry searched for an exception for Netanyahu and his ICC warrant. They seemingly chose to state that since Israel isn’t a party to the ICC, Netanyahu is exempt. The Ministry stated such considerations would be taken heavily into account if the ICC asked the French to arrest Netanyahu.
Italy - Another nation that has been unclear in their response, the Italian Foreign Minister gave support for the ICC, but said “It must play a legal role, not a political one”. It was also stated that they would be arrested, but that they disagreed with the ICC ruling.
The effects of the warrants are likely to be of a similar effect to those on Putin. It limits where he can go, but he sends Sergei Lavrov instead. Somebody from Israel will attend events in Netanyahu’s place, or if he’s fairly certain he won’t be arrested, as Putin did in Mongolia recently, he will attend himself.
However, this highlights how nations are beginning to differ on the Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip. If the Israelis aren’t committing war crimes, and using starvation as a method of war, then why has aid been restricted into entering the Gaza Strip? The United States sought to place some pressure on Israel with a 30-day ultimatum in which Israel had to increase aid to Gaza. The Israelis didn’t increase aid, and the Biden administration backtracked on their ultimatum. As I’ve been saying for months, if the current direction of travel in this conflict is to change, pressure needs to be enacted on Israel. Currently, they find themselves in the driver’s seat, unpunished, and in control, and hence they will continue that way, especially in the Gaza Strip.
Ultimately, I expect the ICC warrant will never be enforced, but the fact is that nations talking about the unforgivable conditions under which the Palestinians are having enforced upon them is a positive development here. Worryingly, this rejection of the ICC warrant by many countries is a sign of the declining influence of many global institutions, and the inability of these institutions to enforce rulings, especially on the world’s strongest powers.
This topic of global institutions is one that I’ll discuss another day. For now, how will this issue progress as we move forward, and what of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah?
Moving Forward With A Weak Ceasefire
As I’ve stated on multiple occasions, Netanyahu needs a war to avoid his corruption trial. Rumours of a cessation of conflict with Lebanon started in the last few weeks. Netanyahu initially shut this down before then agreeing to it in principle. Since this ceasefire announcement with Lebanon, we’ve seen both sides report of it being broken by the other. However, even if this ceasefire is tense, by reports so far, it is holding.
The ceasefire, proudly announced by Biden from the White House Rose Garden, will involve a phased withdrawal of Israel from Southern Lebanon over the next 60 days. This territory will then be replaced by Lebanese Security Forces and UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeper forces in Lebanon. It’s the U.S. and France acting as security guarantors.
As I stated above, Israel and Netanyahu are in the driver’s seat in this conflict with Lebanon. If they push too far and escalate, Iran has twice got involved with direct attacks on Israel. But after this, Iran has tried to reduce tensions and understate any Israel response. In the eyes of the Israelis, if you’re winning, why change strategy?
And so arises the question, why did Israel give Biden this win? The claims of some were that it wasn’t a Biden win at all, but it was a concession given to incoming President Trump so that he would give Israel a more favourable approach to continue its operation in the Gaza Strip. Israel is expected to remain in Gaza throughout 2025, and afterwards to enact some level of control over the strip. Hence, without any pressure on the Israelis, we’ll see conflict in the Middle East for at least another year. With the starvation, famine, and a lack of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip today, where will we be in a year? Something has to change.
An alternative explanation involves Iran. Perhaps the conflict between Lebanon and Israel had reached a stalemate. The goals of the Israelis were to protect the North and ensure its citizens could return. This is only going to happen with a ceasefire. More fighting wouldn’t achieve this, since Hezbollah has missiles more than capable of reaching Israel. It is in the best interest of the Israelis to end this part of the conflict. As for Hezbollah, the pager explosion plot was an intelligence disaster. Their leadership has been ruined, and they will want to regroup in its much weaker state.
With one aspect of the conflict in the Middle East potentially coming to an end, it gives Israel more resources to focus on Iran.
Some have suspected Trump’s stance on Iran will be softer this time around. They agreed with the IAEA to not enrich uranium to over weapons-grade percentage, which is over 60%, before reversing this a few days later. Elon Musk met with the Iranian Ambassador to the UN recently. There are moves made between the United States and the Iranians. This could calm the Iranians, but Iran not looking weak is in Iran’s self-interest. With their proxies weakened and under siege from the Israelis, they could once again be prompted to act directly against Israel. The typical Middle Eastern policy is to escalate to de-escalate. However, with Iran and Israel, this de-escalation has only been temporary. We then later see greater escalation, as we have in April and then October. Where this leaves Israel and Iran, I am unsure. Trump and the Iranians are clearly in communication, but why Iran reversed its decision to limit uranium enrichment to 60% threw a spanner in the works. In January, we may see pieces begin to move.
In my opinion, this conflict still exists in a state of uncertainty. Of course, a ceasefire in any sense is welcomed, but it gives Israel more focus on the Gaza Strip, which it has plans to control and influence moving forward. The ICC arrest warrants will create a clearer stance on where the international community stands, but without US pressure, Israel remains on its current path in the driver’s seat.
Concluding Remarks
The Middle East remains tumultuous, and the next chapter will start in January when Trump enters the White House. We’ll then be able to hash out the finer details of this and many other issues unfolding in the Middle East when we know where the incoming Trump administration will stand.
In my opinion, Trump’s strong support of Israel in his peace plan with Palestine from his first presidency, and the moving of the embassy to Jerusalem, are key signs that Trump will likely fall on supporting Israel but will hope for a quick end to the war. Perhaps the end to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will be painted as a win for Trump in the Middle East, and the wider conflict could continue. Trump’s stance towards Iran will then be particularly interesting, with Trump taking a heavy stance against them in his first term. The countdown to January begins.
Trump’s bigger focus seems to be on Ukraine, a topic that I will discuss next week.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
3 U.S. Aircraft Carriers To Be In Asia For Trump’s Inauguration
NATO Flotilla Surrounds Chinese Ship Suspected of Cutting Cables
Turkey Demands Russia Sanctions Waiver From US For Natural Gas For Winter
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