Geopolitics Review - 29th July 2024

France's Election Reflection

Dylan Muggleton

Jul 29, 2024

Contents

Introduction
What Happened?
Future Impacts of the Election
French National Assembly Convenes
What Is Article 49.3?
Concluding Remarks

Bitesize Edition

As we continue to dive into one of the busiest election months seen in quite some time, we arrive at the French election.
Macron didn’t have to call this election, but after his loss to the far-right in the European Parliament, he decided to play his hand. Macron should be thanking his lucky stars, because although he didn’t win, he didn’t wipe himself out.
Now we face a hung parliament, with no group seemingly able to secure a majority. Some are trying to force movements of parties from one coalition to another, but the chances of it seem slim.
Where does this leave France for the next few years? Will these years be marked by a period of political stagnation, or will we see further chess moves occur in the background? Let’s explore below.

Introduction

Macron’s masterclass, a lucky break, or an early shower? It’s certainly an unstable situation in French politics. Macron’s coalition did better than expected, pushing Le Pen’s National Rally down to third. Unexpectedly the far-left coalition won the most seats, but still not enough for a parliamentary majority. Let’s dive into why this happened, where it leaves French politics now, and what it means for Macron.

What Happened?

After the elections for the European Parliament in early June, Macron’s Renew Party was battered in the full parliament, losing 30 seats for a total of 77/720. The party including Marine Le Pen, Identity and Democracy, possess 84/720 seats.

When specifically focusing on France’s 81 seats in the European Parliament, Identity and Democracy won 30/81, and Macron’s Renew possessed 13/81 seats. Hence, after Macron’s heavy loss to the far right in the European Parliament, he called for snap elections in France. Many question why, with Macron sitting at a 36% approval rating, according to Harris Interactive’s research from 27th June 2024. Previous research wasn’t as generous, with Macron’s approval at 26%, 28%, 27%, 26%, and 24% from various sources taken in June.

With such low approval ratings, it was questioned why Macron called legislative elections, risking his party’s position, which wasn’t particularly strong, but had formed a government with support from other parties. He remains President until 2027, but a new Prime Minister must now be chosen in the National Assembly, who holds high levels of power in leading government and introducing legislation. Macron will make this choice, but if parliament doesn’t like his choice, they can enforce a no confidence vote. This needs 289 votes to pass. Macron wants to avoid this scenario. This is where the election results come into play, and where Macron could struggle.

No party achieved a majority. Before the election, it was expected the far-right National Rally would gain the most seats. However, in a move that some could consider political chess, the far-left and Macron’s centrist coalition teamed up. In France’s two-round system, the top two candidates and any other candidate who record above 12.5% of the vote progress into the second round for a specific seat. As a result of this, many constituencies saw a representative from the far-left, Macron’s centrist coalition, and the far-right progress into the second round.

grayscale photo of people near smoke — Photo by ev on Unsplash

The far-left and Macron’s centrist coalition temporarily teamed up by having candidates withdraw, over 200 of them to be exact. The aim was that by withdrawing the candidate, those voters from the far left to the centre would vote for the other candidate who remained in the second round rather than the far right. The plan ultimately worked.

The far-left won 182 seats. Macron’s centrist alliance won 168 seats, and Le Pen’s National Rally won 143 seats.

289 seats are needed for a majority in government, and so no group finds themselves relatively near the threshold. What does this mean for French politics? Will we see a hung parliament?

Future Impacts of The Election

Before the election, many debated whether Macron had called the election to hand power over to the far right. The theory was he would allow the far-right power, and give them time to mess up an impossible situation, so that in 2027 in the Presidential Election when Macron must step down, his replacement would stand more of a chance.

The impossible situation I mentioned above is one of a fiscal nature. Remember Liz Truss? I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t. She was Prime Minister of the UK for 49 days, and in her September 2022 Mini-Budget, she promised excessive borrowing at a time when the national debt was high and in the limelight.

This promise of spending was intended to reignite a stagnating British economy. However, with interest rates heightened, greater borrowing puts strain on bond markets through higher interest rate payments. As a result, liquidity issues arose surrounding pension funds when bond yields soared to account for this risk. If the bond market leg collapses, so does political stability and the currency. The political stability leg finally stabilised when Truss stepped down, which in turn stabilised the falling pound. It was revealed after that they didn’t even go to the Office of Budget Responsibility to assess the budget. Top job!

The issue eventually passed for the UK, but the same issue has now arisen in France. It’s reported that €10B in cuts are needed and the excessive deficit procedure for the EU is being whispered about.

group of people walking near body of water and building under blue sky at daytime — Photo by Ilnur Kalimullin on Unsplash

Macron stated that the far left and far right would spend their way into a similar crisis. Le Pen’s plan supposedly involves cutting VAT to 5.5% and not paying the EU. Interesting geopolitical developments indeed, especially when France is one of the key member states of the EU. Having a hung parliament where no policies can get through will certainly limit any high levels of spending that would cause such a crisis. The question that emerges now is whether Macron is in a better position or not.

In 2027, Macron has to step down as President due to term limits. Any moves he makes from now to then could be interpreted as not particularly for personal gain but for the gain of his party and his coalition. What should be worrying for Macron is that he is a part of a coalition, as is the far-left. Le Pen’s National Rally is one party, and they came third after being predicted first. Time will tell what occurs in 2027, but in 2012’s election, Le Pen gained 17.9% of the total vote, placing her in third. In 2022, she lost in the second round to Macron with 41.5% of the vote. In a decade, the far-right had taken large strides in France.

As for this election, and it was a clever political play from Macron, but now he has to deal with the far left. Many, including Macron, won’t work with the coalition due to the far-left party France Unbowed and their existence within the coalition.

bundle of newspaper on table — Photo by Mr Cup / Fabien Barral on Unsplash

As for what will happen to the hung parliament in France today, the cards are in Macron’s hands. He can propose a government to form and a Prime Minister, but it’s up to the National Assembly to approve or disapprove. A vote of no-confidence will always loom in the background. Macron isn’t going to ask the far right for help, with his entire strategy being partnered with the left to limit the far right. He also isn’t going to work with France Unbowed on the far-left.

Macron has to try to split the left alliance, perhaps appealing to the Socialists and the Greens, or the Republicans on the right. Macron could do with a Prime Minister from his coalition. Fortunately, he had a good start in electing the President of the National Assembly.

French National Assembly Convenes - What Happened?

When the French National Assembly met for the first time on July 18th, a new President of the National Assembly had to be chosen. They are elected by an outright majority in two rounds. If this doesn’t occur, the speaker becomes whoever gets the most votes in a third round. Macron formed an agreement with the Republicans to reelect Yael Braun-Pivet for the role. The Republicans previously stated they won’t enter into a coalition with Macron’s group but have implied they are open to discussing policies that can “restore authority”. This election to the National Assembly could seemingly be classed as restoring authority, limiting the potential for political deadlock in the National Assembly.

This was a blow to the left coalition and it makes it more likely Macron will be able to get a vote passed for a Prime Minister from his coalition. After all, Braun-Pivet herself is a member of Renaissance, itself a key party in Macron’s coalition.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal tendered his resignation which was accepted by Emmanuel Macron after his coalition came second to the far-left coalition. But when this new National Assembly convened, Attal remains in the role as a part of the current caretaker government until a new government is formed. This caretaker government can’t pass any legislative reforms but can respond to emergencies. Macron has stated a new Prime Minister won’t be chosen until after the Olympics.

So France now looks towards a new government. The President usually chooses the Prime Minister from the largest group in parliament, that being the New Popular Front coalition. Within the coalition, it was France Unbowed who won the most seats, but Macron has refused to work with them, stating they are as extreme as Le Pen’s National Rally. France Unbowed is also struggling to get along with the centre-left Socialists, the second-largest party in the coalition. But even with this group spanning a wide political range, they proposed civil servant, Lucie Castets, as its candidate for Prime Minister. We’ll have to wait until after the Olympics to find out how this progresses. The re-election of Braun-Pivet was certainly a promising sign for Macron. He got the vote across the line by a margin of 8 votes in the third round. Now he has to do it again when a Prime Minister is eventually selected.

white concrete building with statue under white clouds during daytime — Photo by Eddie Junior on Unsplash

What Is Article 49.3?

This paragraph in the French constitution is intended to limit the chances of political deadlock.

The Prime Minister holds the power to enforce 49.3 to pass any bill without a National Assembly vote. Macron used this once between 2017 and 2022 through his Prime Minister. He has used it 11 times since, including for the pension reform that parties on the left weren’t particularly big fans of.

However, if parliament disagrees with the bill, a vote of no confidence can be called within 24 hours, with 289 votes needed for it to be successful. Hence, if you don’t have a majority in government, it’s a risky move. It’s likely Macron won’t be as brave in enforcing 49.3 moving forward. Just an additional aspect to consider in French politics, and another way a vote of no-confidence can emerge in French politics.

gargoyle over street — Photo by Pedro Lastra on Unsplash

Concluding Remarks

If the French parliament can’t figure itself out, elect a Prime Minister, and avoid a vote of no-confidence, then it will be like this for at least a year. The French constitution states another legislative election can’t be held for a year.

The three-way split ensures that the only way a majority could be formed would be to break up coalitions or to have two of the three groups agree to form a government together. Macron refuses to work with France Unbowed of the far left or National Rally of the far right, and so he has to hope he can find some success with the centre-left parties, namely the Socialists and Ecologists, with 66 seats and 38 seats respectively, or the Republicans on the centre-right with 39 seats.

In short, France’s politics will remain up in the air, with no clear solution in sight until the Prime Minister vote occurs after the Olympics.

For the Prime Minister role, some have stated introducing a technocratic government. This would mean putting somebody in the role who isn’t a member of a political party. Italy did this with Mario Draghi a few years ago. This certainly remains an option.

With French politics in a tripolar situation, deadlock is a possibility. Macron is seemingly working to gain support as he did with Braun-Pivet to limit this political deadlock and ensure France can pass legislation, not stagnate for at least a year. He did it once, let’s see if he can do it again.

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Geopolitics Review - 29th July 2024

France's Election Reflection

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