Geopolitics Review - 29th July 2024

France's Election Reflection

Contents

1. Introduction

2. What Happened?

3. Future Impacts of the Election

4. French National Assembly Convenes

5. What Is Article 49.3?

6. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• As we continue to dive into one of the busiest election months seen in quite some time, we arrive at the French election.

• Macron didn’t have to call this election, but after his loss to the far-right in the European Parliament, he decided to play his hand. Macron should be thanking his lucky stars, because although he didn’t win, he didn’t wipe himself out.

• Now we face a hung parliament, with no group seemingly able to secure a majority. Some are trying to force movements of parties from one coalition to another, but the chances of it seem slim.

• Where does this leave France for the next few years? Will these years be marked by a period of political stagnation, or will we see further chess moves occur in the background? Let’s explore below.

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Introduction

Macron’s masterclass, a lucky break, or an early shower? It’s certainly an unstable situation in French politics. Macron’s coalition did better than expected, pushing Le Pen’s National Rally down to third. Unexpectedly the far-left coalition won the most seats, but still not enough for a parliamentary majority. Let’s dive into why this happened, where it leaves French politics now, and what it means for Macron.

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What Happened?

After the elections for the European Parliament in early June, Macron’s Renew Party was battered in the full parliament, losing 30 seats for a total of 77/720. The party including Marine Le Pen, Identity and Democracy, possess 84/720 seats.

When specifically focusing on France’s 81 seats in the European Parliament, Identity and Democracy won 30/81, and Macron’s Renew possessed 13/81 seats. Hence, after Macron’s heavy loss to the far right in the European Parliament, he called for snap elections in France. Many question why, with Macron sitting at a 36% approval rating, according to Harris Interactive’s research from 27th June 2024. Previous research wasn’t as generous, with Macron’s approval at 26%, 28%, 27%, 26%, and 24% from various sources taken in June.

With such low approval ratings, it was questioned why Macron called legislative elections, risking his party’s position, which wasn’t particularly strong, but had formed a government with support from other parties. He remains President until 2027, but a new Prime Minister must now be chosen in the National Assembly, who holds high levels of power in leading government and introducing legislation. Macron will make this choice, but if parliament doesn’t like his choice, they can enforce a no confidence vote. This needs 289 votes to pass. Macron wants to avoid this scenario. This is where the election results come into play, and where Macron could struggle.

No party achieved a majority. Before the election, it was expected the far-right National Rally would gain the most seats. However, in a move that some could consider political chess, the far-left and Macron’s centrist coalition teamed up. In France’s two-round system, the top two candidates and any other candidate who record above 12.5% of the vote progress into the second round for a specific seat. As a result of this, many constituencies saw a representative from the far-left, Macron’s centrist coalition, and the far-right progress into the second round.

Photo by ev on Unsplash

The far-left and Macron’s centrist coalition temporarily teamed up by having candidates withdraw, over 200 of them to be exact. The aim was that by withdrawing the candidate, those voters from the far left to the centre would vote for the other candidate who remained in the second round rather than the far right. The plan ultimately worked.

The far-left won 182 seats. Macron’s centrist alliance won 168 seats, and Le Pen’s National Rally won 143 seats.

289 seats are needed for a majority in government, and so no group finds themselves relatively near the threshold. What does this mean for French politics? Will we see a hung parliament?