Geopolitics Review - 27th January 2025
The Gaza Ceasefire: Why Now? And What Next?
Contents
Introduction
Why Now: The Conditions For Ceasefire
The Biggest Red Flags
Looking Forward For Israel
Where Palestine Goes From Here
Concluding Remarks
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Bitesize Edition
The ceasefire in Gaza seemingly came out of nowhere but was similar to a proposal from May 2024. This is great news, but one wonders if it couldn’t have been reached sooner and saved countless lives.
Now that a deal has been agreed, there are still multiple branches of this issue to explore. Firstly, the ceasefire is in three phases, each of which could see the fighting restart, as Israel has stated is in its rights to do. If this does hold, the question arises as to what Donald Trump offered Netanyahu and Israel in return for accepting this proposal.
We also have seen changes to Israel’s government coalition with one party withdrawing from the coalition due to the ceasefire. Netanyahu’s coalition is in a fragile state, and his political career sits heavily in the hands of his Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotritch.
Finally, since the fighting has stopped, Hamas has emerged and started to once again “police” the Gaza Strip. Israel has vowed to remove Hamas from existence, and that they wouldn’t stop the fighting until this occurred. This clearly hasn’t occurred, and so it is worth questioning if this deal is an elaborate plot to get the hostages out of Gaza and then to resume the fighting. There are multiple scenarios to explore here, and I’ll expand into detail in this week’s Geopolitics Review.
Introduction
The latest ceasefire attempt between Israel and Hamas from January 15th appears as of now to have been successful. This deal was reignited from a failed attempt in May 2024 and will allow hostages to be released and the slow withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip. Firstly, will this proposed deal hold? Secondly, what are the smaller details that are being documented less but that will determine the future direction of this deal? I’ll also explore how we got to this point now, and where all the relevant geopolitical actors will head into the future. Let’s dive in.
Why Now: The Conditions For Ceasefire
This ceasefire was quoted by CNN as an equal effort between both the Biden administration and Trump’s administration, the latter of which was incoming at the time of the ceasefire. It was also mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly aided in ensuring the Israelis accepted the deal. This is being reported as Israel accepting the deal due to Trump’s pressure. Have we forgotten that Trump is a transactional man? Israel remained in a position of control over the conflict in the Gaza Strip, so what incentive would they have to accept a deal? If they agree to a ceasefire, they will be getting something in return. I’ll discuss what this could be later.
Just because this proposal has been announced, doesn’t mean it’s a sure deal. There is still much that can go wrong. Some in Israel’s government are attempting to sneak further conditions into the agreement, and if the Israelis don’t believe they are getting a good deal, or if they think they could get a better one, they could reverse this agreement. This ceasefire is also called the “Three-Phase Proposal for a Durable Peace in the Middle East.” With three phases, any phase could see setbacks and disruptions to the planned approach.
With that in mind, I’ll tentatively approach my analysis of this agreement. That being said, these are the stages proposed in the agreement:
Stage 1 - All fighting is to pause during the first 42 days. Israel will withdraw to a buffer zone along the edge of the Gaza Strip, a condition which they have already broken as they are blocking the access of Palestinians to the north of the Gaza Strip. The Israelis state they are doing this because Hamas broke the rules of hostage release, having not released Arbel Yahoud. Hamas as a part of phase one will release 33 Israelis in exchange for 30-50 Palestinians for each Israeli released. These exchanges have already started, with Israeli hostages released and Palestinian prisoners from the West Bank released. Trucks will also be queueing up to allow sufficient amounts of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The displaced Palestinians would be allowed to return to their homes, or what remains of their homes after Israel’s initial bombing campaign during this 15-month conflict saw infrastructure in the Gaza Strip obliterated.
Stage 2 - Negotiations are to begin on the sixteenth day of phase one (February 4th) to pursue a more permanent end to the conflict. Israel will fully withdraw from Gaza and the remaining living male hostages would be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. The Rafah crossing to Egypt will be opened for the sick and wounded to leave and Israel is supposed to leave here by day 50 (March 9th). The future control of the crossing remains uncertain, with the control of the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor being two issues that hindered progress in the past. It’s likely that for their security concerns, Israel would like some level of influence here, or guarantees they will be secure if they depart from both.
Stage 3 - In the final stage, the remains of deceased Israeli hostages would be released, and the blockade on the Gaza Strip would be lifted. This lifting of the blockade was presented in the May 5th proposal, but not in the May 31st proposal, hence the potential for a lifted blockade also remains up in the air.
It is fantastic news that this ceasefire has been agreed upon and that progress is being made, as seen in the release of hostages. However, multiple issues remain and need to be addressed.
The Biggest Red Flags
The biggest issue in my opinion is the stance believed by some that Israel won’t agree to a complete end to the conflict and a withdrawal from the Gaza Strip until Hamas is eliminated. Within a few days, Hamas emerged out of tunnels that hadn’t been destroyed in the Gaza Strip and they resumed control of their police-like state. This seems like a play by Israel and the United States to give Trump a win as he enters into office, while also allowing for the release of the hostages. Once this occurs, one of the biggest issues for the Israelis of the hostages will be removed from the field of play.
The issues are also visible within Israel itself. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotritch is one of the members of Netanyahu’s cabinet, and he has stated he wants Netanyahu to ensure the fighting will resume in six weeks. Regardless of this, in the last few weeks, Smotritch also stated he wouldn’t leave the coalition government, which the same can’t be said for Otzma Yehudit, a party in the coalition led by Itamar Ben-Gvir who departed the coalition on the 19th of January over the ceasefire agreement. In six weeks, we shall see if Smotritch maintains his stance. Netanyahu’s coalition possesses 61 seats out of 120, of which Smotritch is a key part. Netanyahu’s slight majority is fragile and Smotritch holds Israel’s domestic political future in his hands. This is something to keep an eye on. Will self-interest and political survival see Netanyahu restart the conflict, or an alternative conflict, perhaps in Syria, against the Houthis, or Iran?
Both the Hamas resurgence and the Israeli domestic political issues are the two biggest issues that stand out to me that could see this conflict resume. Could this happen in the second or third phase? Let’s explore what could unfold moving forward from this point.
Looking Forward For Israel
Since the announcement, multiple worrying articles have been released regarding the future of the Gaza Strip.
Just yesterday, Trump stated he wants Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip for Jordan and Egypt. He wants Palestinians to leave their ancestral home to “clean out” the Gaza Strip. Trump also resumed the shipment of 2000lb bombs to Israel. Many signs are pointing to this being a temporary ceasefire, or at the very least, a deal that will not suit Palestinians. This brings me back to the transactional nature of Trump’s agreements. He will have given the Israelis certain promises to agree to this deal. Articles since the announcement have been debating what this could be. Could it be that Trump removed Israeli settlers expanding in the West Bank from the U.S. sanctions list? Or will Trump back the expansion of more Israeli settlements in the West Bank? Or that Trump will support Israel if it restarts the conflict? This could already be conveyed by the restarting of bomb shipments.
This deal has been ratified by the Israeli government, but the issues in Israeli politics are far from over. As he has done before, I would bet on Netanyahu to consider his own self-interest and political survival. This involves appeasing the far-right, who possess considerable sway in his government. Netanyahu also has a corruption trial currently on hold in Israel that will likely resume if the conflict fully ends, and the International Criminal Court has still issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu. Without a war, Netanyahu could also be the subject of a public inquiry into the October 7th attack. It seems his political career is fragile and a conflict is the only thing ensuring the dam doesn’t burst.
As mentioned above, there is also the scenario where an extended ceasefire can’t be agreed to in the second stage. This will be the first clear sign that the deal could fail. Netanyahu has stated that Israel has the right to resume the war, and it will enact this in “new, forceful ways.” Also, even despite the ceasefire, Israel has continued airstrikes and shelling throughout the entire Gaza Strip. Is the conflict truly in a paused state at all?
Where Palestine Goes From Here
Much of this analysis has focused on Israel since they hold many of the cards here, but what of Palestine? Hamas still exists, and so the future of governance in Palestine moving forward remains up in the air. Biden had a plan to reform the Palestinian Authority to rule both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The PA had pursued large reforms to put themselves in a position to rule, but Hamas will reject any loss of power in the Gaza Strip. They are without many leaders who have been taken out during the conflict with Israel, yet they return to the streets and show off armed battalions at hostage exchanges. Israel’s key geopolitical aim is security. With Hamas still existing, and October 7th remaining at the forefront of Israel’s collective mind, it is unlikely that Israel will allow Hamas to retake control of the Gaza Strip without interference.
Netanyahu has also stated in the past that he would be against Palestinian Authority rule in the Gaza Strip, but he has failed to provide alternatives for Gaza to be ruled by Palestinians. This implies to me that Netanyahu has little intention of ever seeing Palestinian self-governance. In fact, in the past, Netanyahu has supported Hamas because they incite violence and through this violence, they limit the Palestinian Authority and the likelihood of Palestinian statehood.
Hence, to start making improvements in Palestine, Hamas have to be removed from power in the Strip. They take advantage of innocent Palestinian civilians and recruit young, untrained men to their ranks. This injustice against Palestinians at the hands of Hamas has to end.
These are the same Palestinians who are likely returning to broken homes with low prospects of a rapid rebuild. No long-term plan as of yet has been proposed, and we still have the necessity of Palestinian statehood. If Trump wants Palestinians to leave their homeland for Egypt and Jordan instead of pursuing statehood for the Palestinians, then an expansion of Trump’s Abraham Accords, especially with the Saudis, would be more difficult. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be impossible. Trump is seeking $1T of Saudi investment in the United States and the Saudis seem on board with such a proposal. The Saudis have incentives to cooperate with Trump and have pursued a security agreement in the past. Some signs are pointing towards the diminishment of the Palestinian cause. We can’t allow this to happen. We have to continue to speak about the Palestinian issue for all the innocent Palestinian civilians. We can’t let it fall to the wayside now that a ceasefire is a possibility. For Palestine, the conflict could well be reaching its end, but a brand new struggle will only just be beginning.
Concluding Remarks
The biggest question here isn’t in the details of the agreement, it’s if Israel sees it through. Also, never forget, that this deal could have been signed last May, and that’s a major injustice for the hostages, and innocent civilians killed unnecessarily since then. For the future of Palestinians, Hamas also need to be removed from power. This is difficult, but the reformed Palestinian Authority need to be provided an opportunity to rule in Gaza. Unfortunately, as I stated above, with Netanyahu in charge, this seems unlikely.
As I’m sure you can sense, I have an unfortunately pessimistic view about the likelihood a deal holds. I usually lean towards being a cautious optimist, but here the cards seem stacked up against this ceasefire. Remember during Trump’s first term as president, and his proposal for peace between Israel and Palestine. It heavily favoured Israel, and I don’t see anything that implies Trump will change his stance on Palestine in his second term. I hope that I’m wrong. I also mention very little of the other geopolitical actors in the region who could affect this deal, that being Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. Iran is also heavily weakened but the Houthis have targeted Israel in the past with long-range missiles. They have shown they have the capabilities to do this and could target Israel once again if any ceasefire is derailed. This issue remains complex and pertains to many nations around the world. Over the coming weeks, we will see how phase one continues to unfold and how likely a second phase permanent ceasefire will be when negotiations are set to start on February 4th.
Next week, I’ll explore the first few weeks of Donald Trump’s presidency, before returning to the Middle East for a series of pieces on Kurdistan. This also ties into my series on Syria, since HTS and Al Jolani have threatened to attack the Kurds in the North East. Trump wants to eventually pull out of Syria, but currently, the United States does support the Kurds. Does this place the United States on a collision course in the Middle East with Al Jolani? If so, does this see the risk of tensions rising between the United States and Turkey? I’ll explore this next week.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Belarusian Election Ends With The Beginning Of Lukashenko’s Seventh Term
Germany’s Outgoing Economy Minister Warns Europe Not To Over Rely On US Energy
Hamas Emerges From Gaza Tunnels, Starts “Policing” Once Again
Pentagon To Deploy 1500 Active Duty Troops to U.S.-Mexico Border
Russian Official Warns Trump Against Taking Control Of Panama Canal
Russian Oil Flows From Second Biggest Baltic Port Fall Unexpectedly
Trump Signs Executive Order Releasing More Kennedy Assassination Information
Washington Post: Undersea Cable Damage In Baltic Sea Accidental
Zelenskyy Claims 200,000 European Soldiers Needed For Peace Deal
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