Geopolitics Review - 27th January 2025

The Gaza Ceasefire: Why Now? And What Next?

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Why Now: The Conditions For Ceasefire

3. The Biggest Red Flags

4. Looking Forward For Israel

5. Where Palestine Goes From Here

6. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• The ceasefire in Gaza seemingly came out of nowhere but was similar to a proposal from May 2024. This is great news, but one wonders if it couldn’t have been reached sooner and saved countless lives.

• Now that a deal has been agreed, there are still multiple branches of this issue to explore. Firstly, the ceasefire is in three phases, each of which could see the fighting restart, as Israel has stated is in its rights to do. If this does hold, the question arises as to what Donald Trump offered Netanyahu and Israel in return for accepting this proposal.

• We also have seen changes to Israel’s government coalition with one party withdrawing from the coalition due to the ceasefire. Netanyahu’s coalition is in a fragile state, and his political career sits heavily in the hands of his Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotritch.

• Finally, since the fighting has stopped, Hamas has emerged and started to once again “police” the Gaza Strip. Israel has vowed to remove Hamas from existence, and that they wouldn’t stop the fighting until this occurred. This clearly hasn’t occurred, and so it is worth questioning if this deal is an elaborate plot to get the hostages out of Gaza and then to resume the fighting. There are multiple scenarios to explore here, and I’ll expand into detail in this week’s Geopolitics Review.

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Introduction

The latest ceasefire attempt between Israel and Hamas from January 15th appears as of now to have been successful. This deal was reignited from a failed attempt in May 2024 and will allow hostages to be released and the slow withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip. Firstly, will this proposed deal hold? Secondly, what are the smaller details that are being documented less but that will determine the future direction of this deal? I’ll also explore how we got to this point now, and where all the relevant geopolitical actors will head into the future. Let’s dive in.

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Why Now: The Conditions For Ceasefire

This ceasefire was quoted by CNN as an equal effort between both the Biden administration and Trump’s administration, the latter of which was incoming at the time of the ceasefire. It was also mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly aided in ensuring the Israelis accepted the deal. This is being reported as Israel accepting the deal due to Trump’s pressure. Have we forgotten that Trump is a transactional man? Israel remained in a position of control over the conflict in the Gaza Strip, so what incentive would they have to accept a deal? If they agree to a ceasefire, they will be getting something in return. I’ll discuss what this could be later.

Just because this proposal has been announced, doesn’t mean it’s a sure deal. There is still much that can go wrong. Some in Israel’s government are attempting to sneak further conditions into the agreement, and if the Israelis don’t believe they are getting a good deal, or if they think they could get a better one, they could reverse this agreement. This ceasefire is also called the “Three-Phase Proposal for a Durable Peace in the Middle East.” With three phases, any phase could see setbacks and disruptions to the planned approach.

Photo by Christian Wiediger on Unsplash

With that in mind, I’ll tentatively approach my analysis of this agreement. That being said, these are the stages proposed in the agreement:

1. Stage 1 - All fighting is to pause during the first 42 days. Israel will withdraw to a buffer zone along the edge of the Gaza Strip, a condition which they have already broken as they are blocking the access of Palestinians to the north of the Gaza Strip. The Israelis state they are doing this because Hamas broke the rules of hostage release, having not released Arbel Yahoud. Hamas as a part of phase one will release 33 Israelis in exchange for 30-50 Palestinians for each Israeli released. These exchanges have already started, with Israeli hostages released and Palestinian prisoners from the West Bank released. Trucks will also be queueing up to allow sufficient amounts of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The displaced Palestinians would be allowed to return to their homes, or what remains of their homes after Israel’s initial bombing campaign during this 15-month conflict saw infrastructure in the Gaza Strip obliterated.

2. Stage 2 - Negotiations are to begin on the sixteenth day of phase one (February 4th) to pursue a more permanent end to the conflict. Israel will fully withdraw from Gaza and the remaining living male hostages would be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. The Rafah crossing to Egypt will be opened for the sick and wounded to leave and Israel is supposed to leave here by day 50 (March 9th). The future control of the crossing remains uncertain, with the control of the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi corridor being two issues that hindered progress in the past. It’s likely that for their security concerns, Israel would like some level of influence here, or guarantees they will be secure if they depart from both.

3. Stage 3 - In the final stage, the remains of deceased Israeli hostages would be released, and the blockade on the Gaza Strip would be lifted. This lifting of the blockade was presented in the May 5th proposal, but not in the May 31st proposal, hence the potential for a lifted blockade also remains up in the air.

It is fantastic news that this ceasefire has been agreed upon and that progress is being made, as seen in the release of hostages. However, multiple issues remain and need to be addressed.

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The Biggest Red Flags